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I was just looking at exactly the same thing, it was a good run from Wembley and he looks like he will be better again over further. The more I watch it back the more impressive Thunder Moon looked after almost snatching up at one point.
How solid is the form though I wonder? Very slow time. Was he flattered by the horses he was running against perhaps? Master of the Seas lost all chance inside the first furlong, Lucky Vega was very disappointing for me, even given his passage, once clear he didn’t really pick up that well and it would lead me to believe the National Stakes was an average renewal as well.
It could be that Thunder Moon looked good against average horses. Will look out for any sectional analysis, would be interesting.
It’s a really hard year to work out the pecking order.
What time would Thunder Moon have run with a clear passage? If a horse has to snatch up during the race to win then he hasn’t ran his proper time in the race.
Lucky Vega’s run through was the worst, his run can be completely forgotten. Whilst I appreciate he didn’t find much when in the clear he was messed about too much for me to judge that he all of a sudden is average or no good.
I’d say Lucky Vega had a worse passage and was impeded more than the winner and stuck on well. Wouldn’t be that disappointed with him.
Wembley would be the one to take from it for me, aside from the obvious Thunder Moon. It could turn out a poorer renewal, but i’d say he’ll end up very decent regardless!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Fair point Mike, sectional analysis might help us on that.
I have a different view from you and Jack on Lucky Vega though. The National form looks average and Lucky Vega didn’t do a lot to disprove that. It wasn’t a great passage obviously, but at no point did he look like to me he was about to take off.
I find it hard to label a 2yo race “poor form” straight afterwards, i mean they all progress at different times of the year etc.
Lucky Vega ran on, but the jockey didn’t touch him as he knew his chance was gone. I wouldn’t write him off, but hopefully the bookmakers take the view you have and price him up massively NTO!
I would be sceptical on the front two in the Moyglare as they seem to be beating eachother so often, but they are decent fillies. For me the 3rd + 5th are the two to take from it.
Thunder Beauty shaped well with little experience and Harrington’s is bred to be better over further.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Didn’t say Poor form though, I said average form. Lucky Vega was being talked about as a potential Guineas winner before this weekend. As always media and bookies tend to go overboard on big winners and I was waiting to see if Lucky Vega could back it up and he couldn’t lets face it.
You only have to see the difference between Thunder Moon and Lucky Vega, they both met traffic, it’s arguable who was worse, but there was a lot of horse in Thunder Moon at all points, whereas we just didn’t see that in Lucky Vega. Good horse maybe. Guineas winner, nope unlikely.
Lucky Vega was being talked about as a potential Guineas winner before this weekend.
Not by me. To me a 6f horse with a view to see if he would get 7f too but never got the chance to see it properly.
He’s bred for a mile, if not more, should have no issue stepping up if good enough. I would say if anything he looked more like a miler than a sprinter yesterday
Jessica Harrington said after his win over 6f that “We’ll have to sit down and think now but Shane said we’d probably be thinking about the Middle Park. I think he’ll get seven as well.”.
Doesn’t really strike me as a miler plus from them comments. And when I looked at the breeding (though I don’t claim to be a complete expert) I came to the same conclusion.
Awfully pernickety aren’t you Frenchy lol
Average renewals tend to lead to the race being deemed poorer form going forward, but whatever.He couldn’t back it up while facing the worst passage in the race. He ran on without ever looking dangerous + the jockey didn’t touch him knowing he wouldn’t win.
3 of his 4 relations have been best at sprint trips. The other couldn’t win a race tried from 7f to 1m3.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!He’s by Lope De Vega out of a Cape Cross mare Mike, he should be staying 8-10f in time no problem, maybe they just meant for this season. I tend not to listen to connections regarding best distance personally anyway. It’s more accurate to look just at the breeding.
An average renewal is different from a poor renewal Jack. Is to me anyway. A poor renewal is like saying we can draw a line through the form. I’m not saying Lucky Vega is rubbish I just look for classic winners when I dissect these two year old races
Times have changed and now,to me at least,2yo form doesn’t necessarily transfer to 3. We had equilateral and Pinatubo as certainties for the Guineas and both stuffed. Love who ran a good few times as a 2yo turns out the best filly since enable. Wembley to me is getting better with each run as is st marks basilica andvit wouldn’t surprise me if both weren’t very competitive in the Guineas. I’d give lucky vega another chance at 7f.
Average renewals tend to lead to the race being deemed poorer form going forward, but whatever.
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