National Hunt Ratings

[Steeplechasing]

Mark, he was very capable, a super horse. He just had the mixed fortune of sparkling on one day of his racing life. Perhaps, as I touched on earlier, the rating was merited and he was simply never as good again.

[Gingertipster]

Steeplechasing wrote:

Mark, he was very capable, a super horse. He just had the mixed fortune of sparkling on one day of his racing life. Perhaps, as I touched on earlier, the rating was merited and he was simply never as good again.

Just to end:

You’re right that Master Minded never showed the same rating again, Joe. But that’s not unusual with that sort of performance. Possible (when right) had he raced in a handicap and/or against better horses – may have shown it more often. Denman won two Hennesseys and had Kauto Star to run against in Grade 1’s. We didn’t see quite how good Moscow Flyer was until racing against Azertyuiop and Well Chief. Unless in a handicap and/or a natural front runner it’s difficult for a horse to run to its very best more than once or twice. As I said, Master Minded ran to a Timeform Performance Rating (also its peak Master Rating) of 179 in that Champion Chase, next best 172 (penultimate start of his life) and 171+ on other occasions (7 and 8 lbs down from his peak)… And many high 160‘s with any amount in hand. Kauto Star’s best Timeform Performance Rating was 188+ (best Master rating 191), his next best 181+ (7 lbs down from his peak Performance Rating). Doesn’t mean that either Master Minded or Kauto Star wasn’t capable of their peak performances in at least some other races had they been needed and/or allowed.

However… Got to admit, the Official Rating given after that extraordinary Master Minded performance was too high. Believe – if I remember it right – officially rated higher than Kauto Star at the time?… So I can agree on that rating he was over-rated. ie Was he an outstanding racehorse? Yes. Was he as outstanding as its Offocial Rating? No…

So may be when people question how good Master Minded is, they are talking about a different (higher) rating than what I think of as his rating.

Value Is Everything

[Steeplechasing]

Aye.

You might enjoy this by ol’ Prufrock – https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/rowley/best-horse-in-the-world-how-ratings-can-help-to-evaluate-21112017

A fascinating look at judging horses by an average rating rather than best

[Gingertipster]

Thanks for that Joe, very interesting.
I am in two minds on how we should judge horses. When judging a horses chances of winning a race consistency is as important as the rating each horse may be capable of in the prevailing conditions.

However, when discussing who the “best horse” is; it goes against the grain that the “best horse” could be anything else but just that. I mean, how can there be a horse out there with “better form” than the “best horse”?

However, with those “best horse in the world ratings”, I do think it needs to be a horse who’s still capable of the best form. Arrogate is imo no longer capable of that rating, even if race conditions are perfect for him.

Not sure whether female racehorses should have their 3 lbs allowance added to their rating.

May be there should also be awards for consistency, taking in to account both ability and consistency. However, I tried to do exactly that with a British Champion Series, giving points for Group 1 and 2 wins, runner-ups and thirds. Here’s the top 12…

British Champion Series
440 Enable f
360 Ribchester
352 Winter f
304 Roly Poly f
281 Harry Angel
269 Ulysses
250 Cracksman
235 Churchill
226 Decorated Knight
216 Hydrangea f
196 Order Of St George
195 Highland Reel

…But nobody was interested.

Value Is Everything

[stevecaution]

Bobs Worth was never a 180 Chaser. That is why his fall from that figure was so spectacular.

As someone who worked in Nuclear Science and encountered situations where you could predict with near 100% certainty is some cases, it seems odd to me to see horses go out over fences in a freezing cold winter, running on what resembles a field at the Somme, over fences for three miles and expect to hold unshakeable faith in a Rating figure to hold true.

With so many variables you would be laughed at in a Science Lab.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Author]

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