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Just finished picking my way through this.
I’m already on Mall Dini antepost @ 20/1 without NRMB protection – looks like I’ve won the game of Patrick Griffin bingo but just hoping that his recent niggles weren’t too serious. I think he is as good as any of these – placed in the Kim Muir off 145 (staying-on, finished with running left) and mega eyecatching when tenderly handled behind Presenting Percy early season. I had it in my mind that they’d mind him until Cheltenham and wait for the Irish National weights to come out, win the National Hunt Chase and then rock up to Fairyhouse as favourite. So far so good!
There has been a major smash-up on Dounikos in the last week or two but I’m not sold on his claims at all. Does he even stay three miles properly? His best performances this season have all been in notably slowly-run races and he did look like a weak finisher at the trip last year. His pedigree would also raise doubts. Gigginstown do also tend to prefer the RSA with any half decent staying novice.
Elegant Escape looks a perfect type for the race but there isn’t much juice in his price. In line with a rather lanky physique, he looks a better chaser than hurdler and has already run to 150ish. He should do better still faced with this kind of test. He’s a fine horse but I just think NRMB quotes between 6/1 and 7/1 sum up his chance well enough right now.
Similar sentiments about value apply to Jury Duty, who ran to a decent level on paper last time but was palpably outstayed close home (not for the first time in his career). Like Presenting Percy and the excellent Barney Dwan, he does rep last year’s outstanding Pertemps form, but it’s just hard to shake the image of him folding up so badly last time.
Fagan was the initial ante-post favourite for this race and hasn’t done anything wrong aside from being absent through the winter. He was a good staying novice hurdler a few years ago (flew from nowhere to be 2nd in an Albert Bartlett, flattered by pace meltdown) and posted some good runs over fences at the start of this season. A positive jockey booking would give some indication with him.
Rathvinden has a similar profile to Fagan as a one-time good novice hurdler who missed seasons before returning to go chasing. He mopped up a series of weak races over the summer, earning a rating of 150 in the process and has had a couple of mishaps recently. His campaign doesn’t suggest he has been plotted towards this long-term though he has been nominated as a likely runner by Willie Mullins.
I see my main danger to Mall Dini as Monbeg Notorious. Like Mall Dini, he is proven in big-field affairs and has run to 150+ in handicap company. Quick ground and a direct route to the Irish National are both minor concerns (has won on good) but he has outstanding claims on form. I’m throwing in a saver at 10/1 NRMB.
I know I’m down as an Elegent Escape fan here but the cash isn’t down yet and I’d be all over Monbeg Notorious here like a rash but alas, I see he holds an entry in the Ultima. I still suspect he’ll run here, if he does this is shaping up into a very good renewal and one to probably focus towards the head of the market for.
I’m fairly certain Monbeg Notorious will not be going to Cheltenham, with the Irish Grand National being the preferred target. Elliot said he definitely wants soft ground in any case.
Gigginstown want Dounikos in the RSA and Shattered Love in the JLT. Elliot wants Dounikos in this and Shattered Love in The RSA; I wonder who will get their way?
MS PARFOIS.
Will love the 4 miles, gets her ground, jumps for fun, has won at the track, good amateur Will Biddick is booked and the 7lb mares allowance is an absolute gift. She will improve significantly for the significant step up in trip.
10/1 generally is more than fair.
Frustrating race for me this. Done some small money on Mall Dini ante-post and money back from Monbeg Notorious NRMB – think both should’ve been in this race, likewise Elegant Escape.
Any selection from here would have been fourth or lower on my initial list, but I do tend to agree with Degaussed. Ms Parfois will get 4m no problem and that allowance is a big plus in a tight-knit race. I’m not totally convinced on Jury Duty’s stamina, don’t think you should be touching any Hobbs horse this Festival (No Comment). Is Mossback ready to jump round a demanding track like this? Does Rathvinden stay?
Fagan would be my second choice but I’ll probably leave it to the good mare. Won’t be betting big on her though.
I too am in the Ms Parfois camp. Trainer was expecting her to beat Black Corton last time. Will love the ground and Anthony has stated that 4 miles won’t be a problem for her. As Degaussed says, winner at Cheltenham before too. All bodes well for a big showing.
All about Mossback for me now the grounds defo going to have give in it. stays all day.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!My concern with Ms Parfois is thatI read that she sweated up and seemed quite nervous when she ran at Uttoxeter; I haven’t seen that race, but it would be a worry if the Cheltenham atmosphere got to her.
Jack & Charlie, I’d be with Mossback as well.
This is one of my big betting races of the week, so always have a few quid set aside for any bets I fancy after Final Decs.
I knew my fate with Fagan last week, after Elliots comments about the ground, and although I’m happy that No Comment has made, I still share LostSoldiers concerns about trainer form, but that aside, I think he has a real live chance. As for Pylonthepressure, he would be a big win for me. Surprised he went under the radar after his last win, and I give him a live chance too.
As I said though, I’ll no be shy adding to this race, and Mossback will be getting added, serious chance, and I will have a definite each way interest in Shades of Midnight as well.
No Comment 25’s EW
Pylonthepressure 100’s to 110’s
Mossback 6’s Win
Shades of Midnight 40’s EW14/15 6/7/8 yr old
6/6 rated 143 or above
23/27 1st 4 lto
30/33 4 runs minimum current season
6/7 contested grade 2 or class A handicap
4/7 Irish trained
28/32 1st/2nd either last 2 runs
6/20 not won chaseInteresting renewal on softer ground than we have seen for a long time.The recent trend has been to the classier types,but has the artificial ground been a factor?,the chance of many a slowboat may have been sacrificed with the fascination in producing false ground,a thought going forward for the rest of the week.
Ms Parfois
Duel At Dawn
Shades Of MidnightThe mare stands out with the allowance,looks to act on heavy,and also a very safe jumper.All of these are going into the unknown trip wise,tactics will play a part.
This is one race where you want your horse to have had plenty of experience,this could have very few finnishers if they go a stride too quick.
A proper test.Fascination with this race ever since the win of Lizzy The Lizard! What a name!
I’d love to see Shades Of Midnight win this but he may find a few too good, though he ran a stormer last time. Look out for his really enthusiastic owners decked out in blue and yellow scarves in the paddock.
MS PARFOIS really impressed me at Warwick, was one I marked down as a ‘whatever race she is in at Cheltenham’, and looks absolutely made for a test like this.
Gordon Elliott’s favoured horse seems to be Jury Duty but MOSSBACK looks a very strong second string. Has justified his presence in Graded company of late and stamina test should suit.
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