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Been won by the Irish 3 years running but that’s no worries to me, I fancy Elegant Escape for this, it’s generally around 12/1 but I may well back it win only on the exchange.
Anyone else have any thoughts on the race?
I fancy Fagan’s chances for this. He was a three miler as a novice hurdler finishing second in the Albert Bartlett and would have won with another 20 yards. The further he goes the better I think it will suit him and he favours good ground.
I Have previously backed Jury Duty Ante Post at 20/1
Today i have backed Dounikos 12/1 EW NRNB
I’ve had 2 long term fancies for this since the tail end of last season, and thankfully Fagan at least made the entries.
I think Fagan has been crying out for this race, and as CNC mentions, a few more yards, and he would have won The 2016 Albert Bartlett. There’s an outside chance he could go RSA, but I would hope that the owner would send Rathvinden there. Been chipping away at Fagan since the start of the season, and he’s quickly becoming one of my biggest fancies of the week. He was a strong fancy for it last year, but on his seasonal debut he wasn’t quite right, and they sensibly kept him under wraps. He acts well round here, and I was very happy with him in his “sighter” here a couple of months back. Strong, strong fancy.
I also like the look of No Comment. Happy enough with his run in The Martin Pipe last year, and he then went very close at the big Spring meetings at Aintree, and Punchestown. No shame in finding Fountains Windfall too good at Aintree, and he ran a stormer at Punchestown. Absolutely nothing wrong with seasonal debut in The Scilly Isles, and he’s a strong back up for me at 25’s.
One of my bigger betting races of the week, and I was happy to have a small top up bet on Pylonthepressure up to 110’s,to go with Mall Dini, and he could improve for a dramatic step up in trip.
Fagan 20’s
No Comment 25’sMall Dini 25’s
Pylonthepressure 110’s to 110’sElegant Escape & Jury Duty the two for me antepost.
EE has been staying on incredibly well every run and ran like he’s wanting further in the Feltham.
Jury Duty has some nice form also and looks like he could stay well. LTO when it looked like he didn’t stay he idled, which apparently is a bad trait of this hoss so I can see Codd ride him quietly out the back.
Elegant Escape runs now in a 3m chase at Exeter, only 4 runners so they shouldn’t go too quick but if it turns into a sprint I wouldn’t be too confident in Elegant Escape winning, best chance is probably to hope they go a moderate pace and then kick for home relatively early (maybe 3 or 4 out)
I too am a fan of Elegant Escape for this (have been since Newbury) but it worries me how Colin Tizzard seems to favour the RSA. Come on Colin – you know this boy can’t win an RSA but has stamina in abundance so go for the 4 miler!
Tizzard going for the RSA instead of this for EE is worse than what he’s been doing with Finians. At least Finians had half a chance.
Hopefully he sees sense, but I’m not holding my breath.
I put him up for this race last year Kev, but haven’t put my money where my mouth is, preferring those I went with.
I still think this is the race for him though, and Joe Tizzard said on ATR this morning that they haven’t made a decision on where he goes.
VTC am I right in that it would be reasonable to expect the Cheltenham Festival master Jamie Codd to be aboard Fagan? If so, this would be another huge plus.
I’ve been chewing over that one myself CNC
I’m sure there’ll be a queue of connections looking to book him CNC, but I don’t see why he wouldn’t be on Fagan, as he does plenty for the yard. As far as I can see, the only fly in the ointment could be one of the Giggs runners, but I remain very hopeful he gets the ride.
Jockey booking is key here, and after Codd, the best amateurs are Derek O’Connor, Lisa O’Neil, Sam Waley-Cohen, and Katie Walsh, so O’Neil would be the obvious backup here. Her ride on Tiger Roll in this last year was the best ride of the season, so if she gets the ride, I would be more than happy.
I’ve got everything crossed that Derek Connor gets the call on No Comment, so Fagan/Codd, and No Comment/O’Connor would make me happy.
I haven’t had a bet yet, as I think he might be kept for a Handicap in the spring, but Phil’s Magic at 66-1 each way looks a good price to me.He ran well here two or three months back
Mossback is still 20-1 with Sportingbet and that looks good too
I was fancying Fagan for this, but he wasn’t mentioned in the Elliot Racing Post Cheltenham stable tour. Although they only listed 28, and earlier on in the piece it states hes planning to run between 35-40 over the week.
Jury Duty was though and this is his intended target.
Dex – Elliott does talk about Fagan on his Betfair blog and confirms the NH Chase as the likely destination. This is what he said:
“Fagan – 8-Y-O
Has to be one of my most consistent horses who is rarely out of the first two, he of course ran very well in 2016’s Albert Bartlett finishing second behind three-time Grade 1 winner Unowhatimeanharry. His latest effort at Cheltenham in October was another second place, this time behind Black Corton who has been in rude health since. He holds two Festival entries; in the RSA Chase and the National Hunt Chase, our preference for him would be for the latter.”
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