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Repeat: I don’t think it is ‘so bent’. I said, and stand by it, it is too hard to win to make a wide appeal. It is alienating and in many cases is an insult to the intelligence as a betting medium. And if you do start winning the bookies get arsy about taking the bets. This game is not all sweetness and light.
Of course the game is not "all sweetness and light".
But what form books do you buy?
How long do you spend evaluating form?
Why should a 40/1 winner be "alianating" and "an insult to the intelligence"? As said, 40/1 chances statistically win the amount of races you’d expect 40/1 chances to win.I’m surprised how
easy
it is for a punter to make a profit. And bookmakers have to close some accounts to remain trading. Although they do apparently close too many.
If you aren’t saying the game is "bent", then "too hard to win" must mean you’re not good enough to make a profit. I’m afraid thats just tough.
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
I gave up Timeform, thought it was a waste of time – no pun intended.
As for the rest: most betting accounts are run at a loss as far as I know. Certainly the case with betfair. It is too hard to win and it it has pockets of bentness as a cursory study of the sport’s media reveals.
I don’t understand why these opinions annoy you.
Perhaps it is just you are the smartass/anorak type of punter who devotes more time to trying to find a winner than they do almost anything else (judging by the tortuous and lengthy explanation of fair breeze’s win then you are. Inceidentally the explanation illustrated rather well why joe public prefer waiting for the mini-computer in a FOB to pay out than the bookie).
Bear in mind, if you are about to tell me that making it pay involves hours of evaluation and study then I would say that supports my observations not yours: that it is pretty effing hard to win and stay well in profit.
My form book is the racing post form backed with computer ‘every run’ stuff. It’s the best combination I have found.- Total Posts 17716
…then there is seconditis and the overweening power of Sod’s Law.
Good shout there THM with Sir Des Champs. No doubting the ability and potential of a lot more to come and with it being trained by mullins means its going to be favourite for whatever race it goes for. Means the rest get overpriced usually (a la ‘so young’ in neptune) Oh course FT wont win an RSA on bridle but first time I watched him (beating zaidpour) just screamed RSA in 2012. If he can win a quality Neptune field when not a natural hurdler he must be something special (no talk of him being lucky winner either!). Any talk of running in Arkle is ridiculous. One thing for sure – the Irish have an abundance of talent with stayers. Bostons, Weapons Am, Magnanimity, Quito de la,Pando, etc. Other point would like some feedback on is ‘do we think Long Runs GC victory was that good a performance’? Im still undecided. Instinct tells me that as good a race it was to watch, he beat to 2 great horses who were sadly in decline.
I agrre with you, WT, it seems churlish after winning KG and CGC easily, but time may rpove that his performances were overrated. I can’t forget Weapons Amnesty skipping over the last fence and scampering up the hill
BTW, any word on Weapon Amnesty’s well-being?- Total Posts 17716
…then there are ridiculous finishes, where you are beaten a nose.
presumably rather conveniently forgetting the occasions when your selection wins by a nose…
It’s not that difficult to make a profit if you apply a bit of common sense and knowledge, but the hard bit comes in doing the groundwork to find the profitable areas. At which point we return at length to the original subject of the thread, and the reason I look forward to jump racing. I can find an edge in the better class jump races, principally opposing those at short odds because the very presence of jumps means there’s more chance of the ‘unexpected’ happening to the favourites.
In the meantime though I’m happy to potter off to flat racing to Musselburgh.
Rob
I gave up Timeform, thought it was a waste of time – no pun intended.
As for the rest: most betting accounts are run at a loss as far as I know. Certainly the case with betfair. It is too hard to win and it it has pockets of bentness as a cursory study of the sport’s media reveals.
I don’t understand why these opinions annoy you.
Perhaps it is just you are the smartass/anorak type of punter who devotes more time to trying to find a winner than they do almost anything else (judging by the tortuous and lengthy explanation of fair breeze’s win then you are. Inceidentally the explanation illustrated rather well why joe public prefer waiting for the mini-computer in a FOB to pay out than the bookie).
Bear in mind, if you are about to tell me that making it pay involves hours of evaluation and study then I would say that supports my observations not yours: that it is pretty effing hard to win and stay well in profit.
My form book is the racing post form backed with computer ‘every run’ stuff. It’s the best combination I have found.But it is not "too hard" is it? There are plenty of punters who make a profit. You can’t expect a large percentage of them to be winners. It’s a business. There is the odd unscrupulous act within racing, but the vast majority is straight. Otherwise myself and others could not make a profit through studying form alone.
If you’re not capable of evaluating form to find value, you won’t make a profit. But I think with you it’s more a case of not wanting to put in the work to do so. To be successful at anything you need to put in the work. What "annoys me" is you’re blaming someone or something else for your own failings. Get some back bone Sir and accept responsibility for your bets.Am proud to be a racing anorak.
But it was you who wanted an explanation of why Fair Breeze won. Sorry if my explanation is not to your liking. It didn’t take me that long so you’re welcome Sir. Punters who prefer FOB’s don’t realise the odds are fixed against them. At least with real racing a punter can profit from their knowledge.Value Is EverythingAm proud to be a racing anorak
So you should be. The repulsive term ‘anorak’ is used by the lazy and inept to describe the energetic and capable
Need one say more?
"Energetic and capable".
May be I am not an "anorak" after all then Drone.
Value Is EverythingLook at the result of the 7.30 at Warwick if you want to know why people are put off the sport…
And now look at the 3:45 at Sedgefield. Cuts both ways matey.
I have slung out yesterday’s Post so can’t say if I’d found it or not. I find many more long price winners on jumps than flat. That is the point, they ARE findable. Could anyone say they would have found the winner of the 7.30 at warwick? When it becomes equine roulette, or rather giant escalado…
I find far more long-priced winners on the Flat than I do NH. At least on the Flat I know that 99.9% of the time my horse will finish the damn race. I’ve lost count at the amount of times over NH that a fall, refusal or ‘pulled-up’ has wrecked any chance I have of winning.
Today, I’ve backed Ice Loch in the 3:30 at Lingfield. I’m not saying he’ll win but it looks worth a gamble at the odds in a weak race where horses can find a sudden rush of form.
I find far more long-priced winners on the Flat than I do NH. At least on the Flat I know that 99.9% of the time my horse will finish the damn race. I’ve lost count at the amount of times over NH that a fall, refusal or ‘pulled-up’ has wrecked any chance I have of winning.
GoRV
I understand your point and it can be galling to be foiled by such circumstances. However, my own mindset in to turn such circumstances to advantage by looking for likely outsiders with which to oppose the favourite. If the favourite comes a cropper during the race then that takes a chunk of the percentage out of the market. As long as you have at least some idea that a longshot bet can be competitve then it offers hope of decent returns.
Of course there is the flip side in that some of the outsiders duly run like their price suggests and finish (or not) out with the washing. Good thing is that at decent odds you don’t have to get it right quite so often.
Rob
I find far more long-priced winners on the Flat than I do NH. At least on the Flat I know that 99.9% of the time my horse will finish the damn race. I’ve lost count at the amount of times over NH that a fall, refusal or ‘pulled-up’ has wrecked any chance I have of winning.
GoRV
I understand your point and it can be galling to be foiled by such circumstances. However, my own mindset in to turn such circumstances to advantage by looking for likely outsiders with which to oppose the favourite. If the favourite comes a cropper during the race then that takes a chunk of the percentage out of the market. As long as you have at least some idea that a longshot bet can be competitve then it offers hope of decent returns.
Of course there is the flip side in that some of the outsiders duly run like their price suggests and finish (or not) out with the washing. Good thing is that at decent odds you don’t have to get it right quite so often.
Rob
Know what you mean Rob regarding favourites falling thus giving a chance of a lively outsider to capitalize on it. I tried that same tactic a few years ago with Quixall Crossett in the hope that, one day, he’d turn up in the winner’s enclosure following a few mishaps from the other horses … but it wasn’t to be
I’m always on the lookout for big outsiders. Have to say that Ice Loch finished last today
.. but the rank outsider of the same race (Clone Devil) finished second at 33/1 and was only beaten a neck. Luckily, I backed Invincible Force in the 3:10 at Carlisle and he won at 18/1 along with Talent Scout in the 4:40 who won at 6/1 … all part of a Lucky 15 bet - Total Posts 17716
Mouse wouldnt do anything Imperial if not in the horses best interests. 2 and half miler not an option – its RSA or bypass festival totally. However, if hes potential GC winner, then the RSA shouldnt be a problem. Does anyone know the status of Diamond Harry and Burton Port??
- Total Posts 17716
I gave up Timeform, thought it was a waste of time – no pun intended.
As for the rest: most betting accounts are run at a loss as far as I know. Certainly the case with betfair. It is too hard to win and it it has pockets of bentness as a cursory study of the sport’s media reveals.
I don’t understand why these opinions annoy you.
Perhaps it is just you are the smartass/anorak type of punter who devotes more time to trying to find a winner than they do almost anything else (judging by the tortuous and lengthy explanation of fair breeze’s win then you are. Inceidentally the explanation illustrated rather well why joe public prefer waiting for the mini-computer in a FOB to pay out than the bookie).
Bear in mind, if you are about to tell me that making it pay involves hours of evaluation and study then I would say that supports my observations not yours: that it is pretty effing hard to win and stay well in profit.
My form book is the racing post form backed with computer ‘every run’ stuff. It’s the best combination I have found.But it is not "too hard" is it? There are plenty of punters who make a profit. You can’t expect a large percentage of them to be winners. It’s a business. There is the odd unscrupulous act within racing, but the vast majority is straight. Otherwise myself and others could not make a profit through studying form alone.
If you’re not capable of evaluating form to find value, you won’t make a profit. But I think with you it’s more a case of not wanting to put in the work to do so. To be successful at anything you need to put in the work. What "annoys me" is you’re blaming someone or something else for your own failings. Get some back bone Sir and accept responsibility for your bets.Am proud to be a racing anorak.
But it was you who wanted an explanation of why Fair Breeze won. Sorry if my explanation is not to your liking. It didn’t take me that long so you’re welcome Sir. Punters who prefer FOB’s don’t realise the odds are fixed against them. At least with real racing a punter can profit from their knowledge.You like the sound of your own voice but you don’t take anything on board do you, old son? I said I find flat racing too hard to win at (besides which it is a complete bore compared with jumping). And it is too hard to win consistently at; if it was easier the general public would be as obsessed with it as they were when it was much more popular years ago. I wouldn’t mind betting you could find winners easier then simply by mathematical dint of less horses, less racing, better each-way terms etc.
I certainly know one old racing journalist who said to me in no uncertain terms: it just gets harder and harder to get anywhere.
If it was easier you wouldn’t have to be an anorak. No sport will expand in popularity if you have to be an anorak to consistently enjoy it, and for me and most normal people enjoying the Turf means having a few winners now and then. Otherwise, as Nevison says, it’s just horses going round in circles.
Your rock-solid carapace of smugness has blinded you to the fact that I do have winners and have unpicked some of the ‘insult to the intelligence, boon to the bookies’ races we are bombarded with every summer. But my point stands and no amount of your ‘come now, sirrah’ bollox will ever change the fact that it is alienatingly difficult and mostly disappointing. Haven’t you been in a betting ring when all the brains and bollocks have been done by something that has been artfully placed? It isn’t a pretty sight. Are you telling me that jockeys have never been instructed not to win even if the horse wants to? I could tell you a few stories about some big names. And every time that happens the people who have backed the horse have been criminally defrauded by the the particular eminence grise who gave the instructions. There really is no way around that fact.
You insist on making it personal while I speak of the general.And yet, come autumn I find I can pick winners and bet with a fair degree of confidence, something I rarely have on the flat. Most on here would agree if they were honest. I still have losers naturally but the whole thing is more straightforward.
Plenipotentiary,
I am not making things personal. I am not capable of being a brain surgeon. You’re not (on your own admission) capable of making a profit on the Flat. I am not going to study to become a brain surgeon, but equally am not going to say they should make it easier to become one. Might be too difficult for me, but not others.If you are not capable of showing a profit on the flat and don’t want to study more, then give it up and concentrate on the Jumps. Don’t just moan about it being too difficult. Might be difficult for you, but not for others.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Plenipotentiary,
I am not making things personal. I am not capable of being a brain surgeon. You’re not (on your own admission) capable of making a profit on the Flat. I am not going to study to become a brain surgeon, but equally am not going to say they should make it easier to become one. Might be too difficult for me, but not others.If you are not capable of showing a profit on the flat and don’t want to study more, then give it up and concentrate on the Jumps. Don’t just moan about it being too difficult. Might be difficult for you, but not for others.
I don’t believe you about others not finding it difficult. The majority of punters kid themselves rotten. I don’t doubt you have beaten the bookie in the beetle-browed manner of the obsessive anorak. But OH if the office for national statistics could tell us the truth about punters!
My belief about this game is the same as my belief about the pub game: it has a veneer of respectability but makes its bread and butter money from hopelessly addicted losers.
I will not stop pointing out that flat racing is too difficult to win at. It is a fact. It is by its nature difficult but that difficulty is made deliberately worse by the vested interests of the sport. Sport/business/racket/game, I forget what it is sometimes.
The reason I point it out is because it is in full scale decline and we are bombarded daily with journalism that whines about this and asks why. The answer is very very simple but i have never seen it in print.
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