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I’d say there’s serious doubt she’ll stay the Newmarket mile.
All of her 2yo wins were gained by her speed below the distance, whereas Attraction was actually going away from her fields at the end of her juvenile races.
Wouldn’t set too much store by a steadily run listed win against other half-cooked horses either, nothing like the test she’ll get at Newmarket.
Depending on the field on the day, I’d doubt she’d get in the first 3 in a truly run Guineas.Im not convinced Natagora will prove be a top class miler, but I’m also far from convinced that it will require such a beast to win what looks like a vile renewal of the 1000 Guineas.
Savethisdanceforme looks the clear value bet at 20s to me, but Natagora could still be a factor.
I did furlong sectionals from that moving distance marker that they have on French TV. I don’t know how pinpoint accurate it is but using it as general guide the last furlong yesterday was the fastest. Not what you’d except from a stamina sapping 7 furlongs in heavy ground and going on the racetimes there yesterday the ground was heavy.
One thing that was impressive is how well they have have got her to settle and how much she has matured in her style of racing, Bary has done good work over the Winter.
Wherever they go they are likely to try and stay clear of Zarkava who to me already looks like she will be crowned 3yo queen this year unless another superstar comes out of the woodwork..
I assume they are going to the french 100 with her.
I’ve read that Zarkava is a very temperamental filly who wont travel well and will be kept racing in France.
That makes her campaign easy.
Poule d’Essai des Pouliches – Prix de Diane Hermes – Prix Vermeille – Prix de L’Opera. Possibly sneak the Coronation Stakes in there.
I think some forumites are being very hard on Natagora given her profile and campaigns to date.
It this time of the year it is always legitimate to discuss whether a horse will stay a new distance but it seems to me that she is a miler who has yet to run at her optimum distance. There is nothing in her pedigree to suggest otherwise and I cannot see anything in her racing style either to give concern, quite the reverse.As miles says Natagora is definitely a classy horse but to me just doesnt look a guineas horse.
Naqagora is plotting a very similar path to 1988 French winner Ravinella – Cheveley Park; Prix Impridence; Guineas. Pas De Reponse also took this route, managing to finish 4th to Sleepytime. Ravinella looked all speed at 2, and considering the future Oaks winner Diminuendo took her on in the Guineas, she was probably less visually equipped to win over a mile than Natagora currently appears.
Natagora has plenty of stamina on her dam’s side (as indeed did Ravinella), combined with a real change of gear to win over sprint distances at 2.
I find it interesting you don’t see her as a Guineas filly.
You are using ONE example though – from 20 years ago. That would tend to suggest that Natagora isn’t a typical Guineas filly.
Thats not to say she won’t win of course.
I think some forumites are being very hard on Natagora given her profile and campaigns to date.
It this time of the year it is always legitimate to discuss whether a horse will stay a new distance but it seems to me that she is a miler who has yet to run at her optimum distance. There is nothing in her pedigree to suggest otherwise and I cannot see anything in her racing style either to give concern, quite the reverse.My main worry is she is just too fast over the shorter trip to get a mile. I am not disputing the credibility of what you say about breeding and I did back her a few weeks ago but she still seems a helluva price to me at11/2.
Listen dropped out so 10/1 looks great but you would expect her to be 11/2 now with that hapenning….I doubt if there is any great confidence behind her.I certainly can’t feel confident no matter what her breeding says and my main bet remains Spacious for that reason.
If it were gauranteed she would stay she would be much shorter in my opinion and we see this with colts and fillies year after year.
That bridge too far can turns great horses into moderate ones (Master Minded) whether it be flat or jumps.
However if you are correct and a mile is her trip she must be some filly and I think she would win the 1000 guineas pulling a cart.
Pedigree should not become the be all and the end all here. Sure, Natagora has a mother who justifies she is able to cover a mile – but did those genes come through when the cover was done?
I’ve seen sprinting pedigrees win Derbies down here. You just don’t know when it comes to a pedigree.
Pedigree should not become the be all and the end all here. Sure, Natagora has a mother who justifies she is able to cover a mile – but did those genes come through when the cover was done?
I’ve seen sprinting pedigrees win Derbies down here. You just don’t know when it comes to a pedigree.
There are hundreds of examples where horses don’t do as their breeding suggests. Wasn’t Red Rum bred to be a sprinter? Mr Brookes was a sprinter who first ran in the Derby on account of his pedigree. Then there’s Denman and Silverburn brothers one is an out and out stayer the other doesn’t get 3 miles and is probably best at around 2 1/2 miles.
Just a few high profile examples.
Breeding can be used as a guide sure, but I wouldn’t take it as gospel.
I’ve seen sprinting pedigrees win Derbies down here. You just don’t know when it comes to a pedigree.
Dont agree with this at all
Flat horses going jumping is neither here nor there. Its a different game
It makes perfect sense that a horses preferences are passed down through it genes and the patterns we see are far stronger than many other supposed factors in betting.
I would like to know when a sprint pedigree won a Derby in this country (or europe). Let alone sprinting, time and again, highly touted milers are backed for this race and inevitably fail to stay.
Back to original point, having seen race for first time today, i would be a bit suprised if she didnt stay… Thought she did that well
Sense of Joy is out.
That makes her campaign easy.
Poule d’Essai des Pouliches – Prix de Diane Hermes – Prix Vermeille – Prix de L’Opera. Possibly sneak the Coronation Stakes in there.
I’m being a bit thick here but is the Prx de Diane the french oaks?
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