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The race time for the Imprudence was 2s quicker than that of the Djebel half an hour later, so I would suggest the result speaks very well of the winner (and the runner-up for that matter, who will surely improve when stepped up in trip).
I’m having trouble understanding why it is you don’t think Natagora will stay a mile at Newmarket, Flash, when you seem fairly sure that a soft seven furlongs ‘especially’ suits her.
She made all in winning the Cheveley Park on decent ground, winning (ultimately) comfortably and pulling well clear of the third, and came from behind today to win easily over a testing seven furlongs. The form is decent and the race time extremely taking in respect of the performance of the colts later on the card – and that’s not withstanding the fact that she should actually get the trip on pedigree.
Natagora has clearly returned in good shape and should derive plenty of benefit from today’s race. Her performances scream ‘class act’ and no matter where she sits in the Guineas field she shouldn’t be inconvenienced by a quick mile.
She has the best form, confirmed herself in good shape and will probably stay. She fully deserves to be favourite imo and 7/1 still represents a decent price.
The race time for the Imprudence was 2s quicker than that of the Djebel half an hour later, so I would suggest the result speaks very well of the winner (and the runner-up for that matter, who will surely improve when stepped up in trip).
I’m having trouble understanding why it is you don’t think Natagora will stay a mile at Newmarket, Flash, when you seem fairly sure that a soft seven furlongs ‘especially’ suits her.
She made all in winning the Cheveley Park on decent ground, winning (ultimately) comfortably and pulling well clear of the third, and came from behind today to win easily over a testing seven furlongs. The form is decent and the race time extremely taking in respect of the performance of the colts later on the card – and that’s not withstanding the fact that she should actually get the trip on pedigree.
Natagora has clearly returned in good shape and should derive plenty of benefit from today’s race. Her performances scream ‘class act’ and no matter where she sits in the Guineas field she shouldn’t be inconvenienced by a quick mile.
I think she will stay to a degree but I think she’ll just plod on over the extra trip rather than "find" like she does at slightly lesser trips. The Guineas isn’t very forgiving to horses who’s stamina gauge is flickering and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two just outstay her though I can see her running into a place. It wouldn’t shock me if she won but when watching the race I’d be expecting something to do her in the last half furlong or so. she will have to run right upto her peak to win a Guineas and this seasons 1000 has a similar look to last seasons 2000, open and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big priced or unexposed filly or two running really well.
Just watched the replay on YouTube and wasnt that taken by it. The early pace looked slow and if the clock is correct on the video then the race was about 8 secs slower than standard, which even on the reported heavy ground is quite a bit in a 7f race IMO.
The nell gwynn looks a good field, without having any real superstars on form to date, it has plenty of strength in depth and I would be surprised if it doesnt throw up at least one decent performance. Id be happy neough to leave Natagora for now until seeing the Nell Gwynn and Fred Darling.
So a filly wins a decently run trial easily dispelling most of the stamina doubts surrounding her and you’d rather "wait and see" but another wins a gallop and you’re all over her like a rash…..interesting logic
I believe Natagora now has an even better chance of staying the trip.
Settled well just behind the leader at seven furlongs on soft going today.A horse who does not settle rarely stays as far as its pedigree suggests. If a horse settles well it tends to live up to its pedigree. A lazy horse often stays further. Natagora is bred to stay the mile and settles well.
Do think Sence Of Joy will a big danger.
Have backed them both.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingNot convinced yet. She has won with plenty in hand yet the tempo seemed to be more pedestrian than genuine and that gives the opportunity for those horses with queries to stay further the chance to "steal" the race.
Natagora cleared this lot due to class and class only, IMO.
Nowhere to hide over the Newmarket mile. I have reservations.
Its not conventional Carvs, but it may just work.
At the end of the day we could both be wrong and something else could wipe the floor with them, we just dont know, when you look at how many big names have been pulled out of the race and then think back to the 2,000 guineas last year after just Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor were pulled out, there is every chance it could be a shock result.
As miles says Natagora is definitely a classy horse but to me just doesnt look a guineas horse.
I am a bit disappointed that Spacious is not due to run in a trial as I think she looks the sort who could do with that extra bit of help a run may give her. Indeed Fanshawe is quite good with fillies so it may prove a good move. The horse is only just coming out of her winter coat though.
I think Muthabaras market support from 25s to favorite, from a yard that doesnt heavily back them like that in classics too often makes her a threat to everything, and she has the profile of a decent guineas horse. indeed it all may prove to be hype, we will know better on saturday.
With Chapple Hyam now saying he thinks his Cape Amber is more of an Oaks type I have it between Muthabara (should she live up to her reputation) and spacious, like I say though the Nell Gwynn looks to have plenty of strength in depth and could very well have the guineas winner in it. It will be an interesting week
Fanshawe is good with fillies but has a poorish first time out record with three year olds. I agree, Spacious chance would be greater with a run under her belt.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingBeing an Australian horsemen, I simply cannot take on board a horse based on their AM happenings. It just never happens.
So, at this point in time, I am sticking with a Ballydoyle contender.
Oh I see, A possible morning glory.
Can’t see why you should be looking for (without Listen) effectively a ballydoyle 2nd string particularly Myles.
Value Is EverythingWhere else do I look?
Would be a dangerous assumption to call any Ballydoyle horse in these Classic markets a "2nd string". They just cannot be underestimated under any circumstances.
According to RTE teletext, Ladbrokes are 8/1 on Natagora at the moment. They are sticking their head so far above the parapet, I have to tell the conspiracy theorist in me to shut up.
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