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Quote: from Racing Daily on 1:28 pm on Aug. 7, 2006[br]But who says my evaluation that the horse is a 2/1 shot is correct?  Me?
No. Your bank manager. :biggrin:
(Edited by davidjohnson at 1:37 pm on Aug. 7, 2006)
The fact is that OB was an Evs shot
Nope. Love her to bits but shortish trip and longish sequence of runs (although shes remarkably unaffected so far) tempered that for me
The fact is that OB was an Evs shot. You either take it or leave it.
Well said.
Or, rather: "you either take it, lay it or leave it"
Every day we get offered a bunch of prices about a couple of hundred horses and it’s up us to decide which prices we want to play and which we want to leave alone.
And it’s our ability to consistently recognise which horses to back, which to lay and which to leave alone that will determine our final score for the season.
At evens, there were people who wanted to back OB last Saturday … those who wanted to take her on … and those who thought the price was about right.
And we’ll never really know which of those 3 groups was right.
Steve
Quote: from stevedvg on 4:06 pm on Aug. 7, 2006[br]The fact is that OB was an Evs shot.  <br>Steve ÂÂÂ
I misinterpreted the original assertion. I had thought this was being presented as true odds when I now see that it was a fact in terms of the market on the day.
As you say, Stevedg, we will never know what the true odds were.
I was indeed talking purely about the market’s view of OB. My view, your view or anyone elses view is another matter. I was simply saying that, when push comes to shove, we were being offered 1/1 about OB. It was then our choice whether to take those odds or leave them. I eventually chose to look for some value for the 3rd place slot, as Evs didn’t represent OBs chances of winning IMO.
If I remember rightly, Naninia was the second favourite and AG was third ranked. AG wasnt the obvoius danger.
I reckon that anyone other jockey on OB would have seen her beaten, I think her knock about in her previous run had taken some of the bottle of of her, the way she was ridden on the day, I think bears that out.
If people who think that evens is a good price about horses like this, in these types of contests will be consistently losing.
stramge though this may sound I have backed the odd winner and not been totally satisfied in that they may have been a short price and to me the best horse in the race only then to have to rely on a huge slice of luck to win. I then think to myself, too many of these bets and ill quickly run my bank to zero. On the other hand I often back big priced horses each way who may not quite get me in the money but run much better then there odds suggest they will and thus i think to myself that these type of bets will yield me profit at some stage. Strange thinking perhaps.
You cant disagree with what Stav says but then again, its pointless enough this discussion of prices after a race. You cant bet on whats just happend.
SHL
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