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Ok, no household names here, but putting up horses who at the top of the market for the cheltenham races is something that anyone can do. After a summer of reviewing last season, i’ve come up with 24 horses below who i think i’m right in saying have never won a race under rules (one may have slipped through the net). I’ve seen enough in each one to suggest they have enough ability to win and as most are trained by small trainers, they may be some value to be had. I’m not intending to back them religiously, but i would hope that they will show a level stakes profit by the end of the season. Although the plan is too remove them from the list once they’ve won a race. I’m working on another list, of more exposed horses who might be potentially well handicapped at the start of the season and will post this at a later date, if anyone is interested.
Arran Law – 5 year old gelding, with a pedigree full of stamina. Only had the 2 runs last season, soundly beaten first time on heavy going, but he shaped with more promise at Hexham on better ground. His pedigree suggests he will come into his own over further and is sure to have improved with another summer on his back, this well grown individual could make his mark in a staying novice event (2m4f+) in the north, should avoid backing on heavy ground.
Barton Alf – Three bumper runs produced two efforts that showed a degree of promise. A big unfurnished individual, he looks sure to improve with age, and wasn’t given a hard time when his chance had gone. Appears to be the type that may at least need his initial outing, but may prove capable of landing a maiden/novice event over hurdles, should stay at least 2m4f and appears to want cut in the ground.
[b:2eyoy8h8]Basford Bob [/b:2eyoy8h8]- Unlucky in a Uttoxeter bumper in April, looked like winning until he jinked badly a furlong out, he ran on again and almost got up. He appeared to be a strong travelling sort, and is bound to improve for this initial effort. Looks a guaranteed bumper winner, if they choose to try again before going over hurdles.
Bernshaw – Looked on the weak side last season, showed very modest form, but travelled well on occasion, before fading late on. Might be in for a better season if strengthend up over the summer, and might pop up at a price in a low grade handicap hurdle, over not further than 2m4f
[b:2eyoy8h8]Casper of Tarsus [/b:2eyoy8h8]- Showed signs of promise in a few starts. Still looked a little on the weak side and he should be capable of winning a 0-90 over 2m6f-3m2f on ground with a bit of cut,may prefer a galloping track.
[b:2eyoy8h8]Champagne Floozie[/b:2eyoy8h8] – Showed promise in above average bumpers, had a year off, and then showed a similar level of promise in a couple of novice hurdles, fell early on final outing last season in a handicap hurdle, and off a mark of 90, she could pop up at a price.
Chaser’s War – Contested her full quota of bumpers last season and improved with every run. The jockey lost his irons for most of the race on her penultimate start at Fontwell and she did well in the circumstances. Her second at Stratford was a decent effort and she looks the type to pick up a mares event over hurdles. She appeared to handle fast ground, but her action suggests some cut wouldn’t go amiss.
Dark Gentleman– Solid placed form in novices behind some useful yardsticks, small stable has a good strike right, should be up to winning over 2m4f on good/good to soft ground off a mark of 100.
Doc Wells – Placed in bumpers, before a promising first run over hurdles at Sedgefield. That was over 2m4f, will probably want 3m, and should win a modest maiden/novice or handicap off 100/105.
Easter Vic – 8 year old, only had a couple of starts, showed promise in both, needs one more run to get a handicap mark, and should win a modest northern staying handicap.
Fountains Cloud – Trained by Anthony Honeyball, this 5 year old gelding had 2 runs last season in bumpers, finished out the back first time at Newbury, followed that up with a mid-div run at Taunton in what turned out to be a decent event. He led for most of the way that day, and still looked a bit weak, appears to have a keen attitude and showed enough to suggest he might pick up a modest event.
Holy Balloney – Ran green, but showed promise first time in a fair bumper at Bangor. Returned to that track next time and finished 4th of 7 in a very slowly run affair. Stables runners usually improve for experience and this one showed enough to think he could be capable of picking up a modest bumper/hurdle depending on which route connections take.
Ifandbutwhy – 7 year old who won a couple of modest irish points late in 2008, and moved to the Hogarth stable, faced a couple of stiff tasks, his best run being a very decent 3rd at Catterick over 2m3f behind the useful Time For Rupert and Be Brief. Almost certainly needs 3m to be seen to best advantage, granted this and some cut in the ground, a mark of around 105 should mean he can pick up a handicap, providing he isn’t sent chasing this term.
Incentivise – An irish point winner last year, but showed better form when placed in points, particularly behind Star Lord. Performed modestly in novice hurdles, but contested a handicap chase on his final start and flew home up the Chepstow straight to finish 4th. On his point form he may be well enough treated off a mark of 96, and it would be disappointing if he doesn’t win a modest staying event. Doesn’t appear to want very soft ground.
Irish Symphony – Has used his full quota of bumper runs, and has run well enough in all starts. Both his performances of the track, and his pedigree suggest he will want further over hurdles, one to look out for in a long distance novice event in the north.
Kaycee – From a small stable, this american flat bred 4 year old gelding had 3 runs in bumpers last season within a space of 6 weeks. He ran well first time out in bog like conditions at Plumpton before a good performance when runner-up to a Henderson favourite and Huntingdon. His last run was too bad to be true and probably came too soon. A free-going sort, if settling better, he should be able to win an average event, probably over the minimum 2m trip.
Premier Bleu – Placed in a few point to points in Ireland, and showed at Bangor that he does have enough ability to pick up a modest event around somewhere like Plumpton or Fontwell this season for his southern based trainer.
Prince Tam – Seems a typical Lucinda Russell type, showed enough in novices to suggest he could pick up a novice staying handicap, as he appears to be crying out for a trip, handles cut, so perhaps 2m4f on a stiff track off a mark no higher than 100 might see him in the winners enclosure.
Rolecarr – Providing he hasn’t been raised above 95 for last run, should pick up a 0-100 handicap hurdle on decent ground, perhaps over 2m4f?
Roman Cruise – Bits and pieces of bumper/hurdle form. Needs another run for a handicap mark, one to watch perhaps over 2m4f – 3m in a low grade handicap off a mark lower than 90
Soviet Cat – Flat bred 4 year old who had a handful of runs over hurdles last season, and came to grief twice. However despite this, he appears to be a good and enthusiastic jumper. He needs to learn to settle a bit better to fully see out the 2m trip, but if he is able to do this, he could easily win a low-grade handicap round a sharp track like Taunton or Plumpton.
Stevey’s Lad – From a small stable, showed nothing in irish points, but three solid runs in bumpers suggest there is some ability there. Will come into his own over further once sent hurdling, and given his connections, might be overpriced.
The Wedding Horse – From the Bradstock stable, typical old fashioned sort, who looks sure to improve on his performances last season. Tended to be a bit keen in his races and wasn’t quite getting home. Cannot be too harshly treated and is one to look out for with cut in the ground over a trip (2m6f+)
Tigger – Looks a bit exposed, but this strapping gelding took a few runs to get the hand of things, and still looked a little on the weak side. He travels well through his races and off a mark of 100 or thereabouts, should be able to pick up a 2m novice handicap this season, on decent ground
I really like following these lists of horses to follow and will make a note of them. Will read the next one with interest.
Edit: for some reason, I thought this was your first post Robert.
I’ll leave it as it is, because I’m used to making mistakes.Hi Robert, and welcome to the Forum. I came across your list on the Betfair forum a few weeks ago, and because I don’t know how to access topics there once they fall off the bottom of the page, I copied it here . . .https://theracingforum.co.uk/forum/v … hp?t=75973
Not plagiarism, I just wanted to read it later at my leisure!
This forum seems much stronger for NH knowledge than Flat, so you’ll be able to have lots of mates to have arguments with.
Me, I just do weird things with numbers, and people leave me to my own devices.
Gerald
No problem, not my first post no, although 200 in over 8 years is hardly contributing regularly, must try harder!
The first runner from this list is out today at Fontwell in the 5:50, the bumper, Fountains Cloud. He’s a massive price at the moment, it doesn’t look the strongest race, so I’m hoping he shows enough to warrant being on the list. I think the slightly shorter trip will only be in his favour, so fingers crossed for a good run.
I thought Fountains Cloud showed enough today to keep watching, obviously no world beater, but he ran on again up the straight after stumbling turning in and there is hope, a win this season isn’t impossible.
Running profit lost for the 2 lists is + £2.50
Ok, Prince Tam goes at Kelso tomorrow (Sunday). The majority of the stables runners tend to need their initial outing, and i also think he might need a bit further, and a little cut. Given all that though, it’s a pretty weak affair and therefore I wouldn’t be surprised if he went in, but just hoping for a decent effort. I disagree with the post, who say he looks on a stiff mark, 95 seems more than fair to me.
Prince Tam showed up well for a fair way, before both lack of a turn of foot and recent run showed. I’m still confident he will pick up a race this season.
After today the 2 lists show +£ 0.50 to a level £ stake
Arran Law goes in a novice hurdle at Carlisle tomorrow (friday) He’s probably one for a novice handicap once he gets a mark and will also probably need further than 2m, once again just looking for encouraging signs tomorrow.
Arran Law was pulled out due to the fast ground, as were a few others on the day. The forecast rain didn’t arrive and instead we had strong breeze drying the ground even more.
Rob
Thanks for that Rob, he’s entered at Kelso on Sunday, so i’ll be keeping an eye out for that.
Arran Law and Ifandbutwhy are both entered at Kelso. The former was withdrawn the other day due to the ground, and there has to be a doubt about him taking part. If he does, it’s not the greatest race, so i’d be hopeful of a decent showing. The latter goes in a maiden, which is a little surprising, but in actual fact it’s not a strong heat, the ground would also be a concern for him, but again you’d be hopeful he’d put up a decent performance.
Ok well Ifandbutwhy got rid of Paddy Aspell at the 1st, just one of those things. Arran Law ran a fair race, a stiffer test and a bit more cut wouldn’t go amiss, I thought he definitly showed enough today to suggest a win this term was possible.
Doc Wells is favourite for his first run of the campaign in the 2:10 at Carlisle today. Everyhing appears to be in his favour, with the step to 3m appearing to suit, if he’s ready to go first time up, i’d be hopeful he’ll beat this lot today.
Doc Wells was pulled up and didn’t run any sort of race. The jockey was looking down when he was pulled up, so hopefully he is ok.
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Was reported to be sound as he returned to be unsaddled.
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