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With more questions than answers coming out of the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown this will be an interesting race and should bring a bit more clarity to the Supreme market.
Mengli Kahn unseated his rider so we learnt nothing about his credentials in Leopardstown. It looked like Sharjah had the beating of Real Steel before they both crashed out.
Mullins sends Getabird to this. Strange choice; he ran at 2 mile 4f on his first run of the season and coming out of that race I think some thought he might go up in trip to 3 miles so it is interesting to see him coming back to 2 miles. Mullins also saddles Carter McKay
Elliot also has Roaring Bull and Stooshie. DeBromhead saddles High School Days, Joseph O’Brien has entered Hardback. Riders on the Storm and Top Othe Ra complete the filed for Tom Taaffe and Tom Mullins respectively.
The winner here is sure to strengthen their Supreme claims
Just seen an elliot quote saying MK is likely to run, even with the penalty he surely has to be fav for this 6/1, really? Getabird needs further, carter mckay an average bumper horse who won a nothing race
Somebody at Sky will be getting an earful tomorrow morning. They opened with Mengli Khan 11/8 favourite, Getabird 7/4 second favourite, despite Paddy Power having Getabird 2/5 and MK 6/1. Market was suspended and prices adjusted accordingly.
If MK is 6/1 with Paddy Power ham it’s all but certain he doesn’t run, regardless of what Elliot may have said in the press.
Yeah i wont be backing for that reason, even with an 8lb penalty, 6/1 is to good to be true, id be inclined to lay getabird at 2/5 w/o mengli khan over 2m, wouldnt be surprised if it was carter mckay that turned up solo
Don’t know what to make of Getabird turning up tbh, if he does I think he’ll win though. They said he’d come on a lot for his last run. Despite this being one of Willie’s favoured Supreme trials I don’t think it really means anything for his Cheltenham target, I’d say its more a case of the horse being in good form and the race coming up at the right time. Still think he’ll be stepping up in trip at the festival.
Say MK does turn up and Getabird slams him though, that would surely warrant a one way ticket to the Supreme?
Yeah you would think so, would be hard to not send getabird if that were to happen, i dont think ricci would mind getabird,sharjah and antey all running, still another few just from riccis bunch that could go to the supreme also
It seems like the all-knowing traders at Paddy Power have got this one wrong.
Mengli Khan now into 7/4 and Getabird out to evens, Gordon must have been telling the truth.
Kesselring is entered in maiden hurdle on the same card, he’s one both Ricci and Patrick Mullins have been quite vocal about with a view towards the Supreme. Supreme winners don’t go unbacked in that yard however, so a lack of market support is probably telling.
If the top two both run then surely this race screams avoid. I’m haven’t actually been all too taken with either Mengli Khan or Getabird so far in their careers and would happily be against both at the festival.
I’d imagine even if Getabird does win well, he’d be Ballmore bound with Sharjah more suited to the Supreme from what I’ve seen so far.
If there is a bet to be had in this race it may lie with the mare at the bottom: High School Days. She’s been winning handicaps in very bad ground throughout the Autumn after a few placed efforts on a quick surface last Summer. I’d rather wait until final decs before dipping the toe in yet mind.
Yeah ricci has a few that have talked up, epicuris the other week also, although he disappointed hes one i added to my list at a price, may be flattered by his flat rating a bit though..
And it does seem that MK turns up, ill just be watching now, in hindsight i probably should have taken a small chance on him at 6/1 as it was a crazy price…..
I havent been as impressed with getabird charles but i dont see any reason personally that MK wouldnt have won that LTO, ive been quite impressed personally, although will take a top performance to give 15lbs 8lbs and 6lbs to this lot
I’ve been quite impressed by both, particularly by Getabird’s win last time out. To do what he did on bottomless ground after a long injury lay off was very impressive I thought, and the vibes are that he will come on a lot for it.
Maybe the fact neither he nor MK are effortless, bridle horses might wrongfully lessen people’s opinions of their actual performances? MK has by far the best form of any novice in Ireland at this stage but he has looked workmanlike in victory.
While it would be nice to be on MK at 6/1, PP rarely hand out free money so I don’t regret letting that one slide, on all known bookie form that price screamed non runner. Getabird at 7/4 will do me nicely but its not nearly as good a price as it looked last night.
I think id probably be more on getabirds side if it was over 2m4, not confident about the trip, but you never know with these connections, could be anything.
MK has by far the best form of any novice in Ireland at this stage but he has looked workmanlike in victory.
I don’t know if he has the best form. Granted he has won 3/4 and unseated in the Grade 1. He has beaten Hardline by the same distance that Whiskey Sour beat Hardline. Whiskey Sour beat Hardline by 20 after MK and the 2 Mullins horses, Real Steal and Sharjah, crashed out. If Sharjah had stayed on his feet I’d say he’d have beaten Hardline by 40L.
I know that he can only beat what’s in front of him and the form is good, I wouldn’t say it is by far the best.
Getabird, on the other hand, has only had 1 run; where he beat Beyond The Law by 11L. Beyond the law has had 2 runs since and has won both of them by 20L plus.
As ham has already said, that was over 2 mile 4 furlongs so there are still questions for Getabird to answer over 2 miles.
how far would mengli khan have won if he didnt run out? Was a very strangely ran race last time and i imagine with russell on board MK will be given a much calmer ride and wont hit the front until later in the race (not to say jack gave him a bad ride, was just a strange race)
Hes into fav just now 11/8 and getabird back out to 13/8
think sharjah was the one to take from that last race
Way to early to tell i think, ill happily watch this tomorrow without getting involved, i thinj MK is a good thing though, if something bolts up expect it shorten into fav for the supreme
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