Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Lightning Novices’ Chase 2009
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Gingertipster.
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- January 19, 2009 at 19:10 #205153
Yeah maybe temperament is an issue i wouldn’t rule it out yet. We’ll learn more the more he races i guess
I just don’t think he’s exactly laced with stamina. The two who went on for 1 and 2 are well proven over 2 and a half miles and would suggest stamina was the order of the day. He’s only won at the minimum in this country and has yet to prove he can stay beyond the minimum and for me that is his issue.
January 19, 2009 at 19:35 #205158
AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
I agree with tbr – Free World didn’t stay – Dan Skelton, the assistant trainer, thinks so too.
January 19, 2009 at 21:52 #205180Certainly never dented my confidence in the horse for a couple of reasons.
The minute I saw 4/5 Free World and 9/4 being offered about CB I was more tha suspicious that CB might be just a bit short for this.
Perhaps she has taken a leaf out of Nicky Henderson’s book who tends to run them a bit short pre chelters.
I also thought Elsworth was riding him to beat one horse. Free World was outclassed IMO and went out like a light turning for home.If he hadn’t I doubt if the eventual winner would have got back into it. Once he did it became a bit of a sprint which is the very thing you wouldn’t want involved in with abig horse like CB.
Having said that despite balloning the last he has run on well and showed that 2m4f will be his min distance in the future.
With a strong gallop, the stiff course and thisa being a pretty poor renewal I would think he has an excellent chance of winning the Arkle.
Fist,
O.K. will try and explain again, can not believe you have taken such a small criticism to heart. Yet you can say the only reason Paul Nicholls ran Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase was money / greed. Seems hypocritical to me that you can not take a little criticism yourself Fist.
If we are not able to point out (using reasoned comment and no swearing) other members inconsistancies, then the Forum will go downhill. With people saying anything they wish, one thing in one thread and the opposite in another. Please do not blow the situation out of all proportion by trying to get me banned. I don’t want you to be banned Fist, as you do come up with some good posts. Even if I mostly disagree with your opinion.
Your tip of Binocular for the Champion Hurdle, just after his debut, was a master stroke. You were so confident, with what could be said to be a “sweeping statement”. Only seeing the positives. And I believe you have said similar things about other horses who have gone on to do well too. Which is a credit to you.
However, when you say other “sweeping statements” like the one about Calgary Bay “will win in a hack canter” (or words to that effect). But then, when it does not come off….. You back track and make so many excuses. Seemingly as if to say “I would not have tipped it had I known”. Most of those excuses could have been seen beforehand as possible negatives too.
It takes something away from the times you are right e.g. Binocular. Because it makes people wonder whether you would’ve come up with excuses if he did not make the grade either.
I am only saying don’t be afraid to be wrong sometimes. Equitrack made the same comment but I see no attack on him.
Well Fist, you’ve got a free run for the next few days as I have got to do a little bit of revision. I need all the help I can get. This bloke who "hasn’t got a clue about racing" is taking on journalists from the Racing Post, Raceform etc. in a racing quiz.
Sorry, does that class as "mocking"? Could not resist. 
The End
Mark
What you don’t seem to understand Ginge is there is a huge difference between discussing a horse race and discussing a fellow member. You weren’t talking about the horse you were talking about me which is the height of bad manners.
The fact I said the horse would trot up I made the mistake of thinking like most others it was a 2 horse race as the betting indicated…..Turned out an unfacied 16/1 shot won the race but the fact remains Calgary Bay absolutely slaughtered Free World like I thought the would……..but you wouldn’t think of taking that into consideration…..Keep your comments to the question at hand and keep the personal shyte out of it and you and I will get on fine.
Good luck in the quiz…………………………….to the journalist
January 19, 2009 at 22:33 #205184What you don’t seem to understand Ginge is there is a huge difference between discussing a horse race and discussing a fellow member. You weren’t talking about the horse you were talking about me which is the height of bad manners.
The fact I said the horse would trot up I made the mistake of thinking like most others it was a 2 horse race as the betting indicated…..Turned out an unfacied 16/1 shot won the race but the fact remains Calgary Bay absolutely slaughtered Free World like I thought the would……..but you wouldn’t think of taking that into consideration…..Keep your comments to the question at hand and keep the personal shyte out of it and you and I will get on fine.Good luck in the quiz…………………………….to the journalist

This is rediculous.
Everyone knew what you meant Fist.
[b:15wkkqeg]When have I discussed you personally Fist? That is an allegation without foundation. I have confined myself to talking about racing and what other members say about racing. Give evidence![/b:15wkkqeg]

I suggest in future threads we ignore each other.
Mark
Value Is EverythingJanuary 19, 2009 at 22:47 #205186You’re having a go at someone for (supposedly) talking down to people? The apocalypse must be upon us.
The problem, Fists, is that you said Calgary Bay wouldn’t be off the bridle to win yesterday (you can try and justify your remark with the fact that he beat Free World, but in reality we know you meant he’d stroll the race), yet find excuses why he wasn’t ready only after he was beaten.
You just need to realise it’s OK to be wrong from time to time – the rest of us are used to it.
Of course I get it wrong sometimes but does that mean I am not allowed to try and voice my opinion on why, without you two being ignorant.
Your post like Ginge’s is like a lecture mate and has nothing to do with the race at hand. So what’s your point apart from seeing an opportunity to have ago?
SO drop the crap and let’s discuss the race or simply don’t post unless you just want a fight and I’ll have a word with Corm about starting a free for all forum where youand Ginge can talk about me all day long in my absence

Tell me something Equi did you see the Triumph Hurdle favourite in the first?
Did you think he was 100% for that race?
IMO If that had been his only race of the season he would be 12/1 for the Triumph. The bookmakers like all of us have seen it a thousand times where horses run below par pre Cheltenham. Go back to Kempton last season how many of you said Binocular wasn’t a Cheltenham horse after he beat Pierre L?
It’s a simple case that if they have them100% the chances are the race could put them over the top. In Cargary Bay’s case the betting indicated something was afoot and it could not be the case that the dogs were barking CB wasn’t fancied?
Anyone who has ever set foot on a race course on a regualr basis knows how fast word gets around and horses drift or others are backed because of it.
So what’s so unusual about someone like me using his head and deciding not to risk hard earned money on a horse when all the signs are there?
I thought he was a certainty to win and a certainty to start fav and when I saw the betting I crapped out……..what the hell is so hard to understand about that?
January 19, 2009 at 22:51 #205187That doesn’t make sense Fists…

Is this personal Fist?
Value Is EverythingJanuary 19, 2009 at 22:53 #205189You’re having a go at someone for (supposedly) talking down to people? The apocalypse must be upon us.
The problem, Fists, is that you said Calgary Bay wouldn’t be off the bridle to win yesterday (you can try and justify your remark with the fact that he beat Free World, but in reality we know you meant he’d stroll the race), yet find excuses why he wasn’t ready only after he was beaten.
You just need to realise it’s OK to be wrong from time to time – the rest of us are used to it.
Or this?
Making the same point as I was. How was what I said different?
(EDIT. Oops I see Equi is getting it in the neck now.)
Ginge
Value Is EverythingJanuary 19, 2009 at 22:55 #205191"What you don’t seem to understand Ginge is there is a huge difference between discussing a horse race and discussing a fellow member. You weren’t talking about the horse you were talking about me which is the height of bad manners."
Yes, it’s called an Ad Hominem argument, and you’ve given an almost textbook example of one in this thread. Pot, kettle, black etc etc…
January 19, 2009 at 23:11 #205199Just given an undertaking not to converse with Fist on any other thread in the future.
If I do please shoot me!
Mark
Value Is EverythingJanuary 19, 2009 at 23:17 #205203"What you don’t seem to understand Ginge is there is a huge difference between discussing a horse race and discussing a fellow member. You weren’t talking about the horse you were talking about me which is the height of bad manners."
Yes, it’s called an Ad Hominem argument, and you’ve given an almost textbook example of one in this thread. Pot, kettle, black etc etc...
That’s a bit personal mate!

Mark
Value Is EverythingJanuary 19, 2009 at 23:27 #205205"What you don’t seem to understand Ginge is there is a huge difference between discussing a horse race and discussing a fellow member. You weren’t talking about the horse you were talking about me which is the height of bad manners."
Yes, it’s called an Ad Hominem argument, and you’ve given an almost textbook example of one in this thread. Pot, kettle, black etc etc…
Nice to meet you too
January 20, 2009 at 03:23 #205251OK lads – handbags away.
Fist – you need to take it on the chin when they get beat. You can’t be right all the time (I might even start keeping count) but when you are wrong you just gotta eat that humble pie my friend (especially when you are as vocal as you can be when they do sometimes win).
You come across as a sore loser at times which is, I think, what gets some people’s goat.Quote –
I also thought Elsworth was riding him to beat one horse. Free World was outclassed IMO and went out like a light turning for home.If he hadn’t I doubt if the eventual winner would have got back into it. Once he did it became a bit of a sprint which is the very thing you wouldn’t want involved in with a big horse like CB.Having said that despite balloning the last he has run on well and showed that 2m4f will be his min distance in the future.
With a strong gallop, the stiff course and thisa being a pretty poor renewal I would think he has an excellent chance of winning the Arkle.
Agree with Aragorn that none of that makes sense – specifically –
How did Free World going out like a light enable the winner to get back into it? He (the winner) would have beaten CB regardless of what happened to Free World on the evidence we have.
A bit of a sprint? Didn’t look that way to me. I would be fairly certain they weren’t quickening at the end and were both just staying on (at different speeds of course).
2m4f min distance and excellent chance for the Arkle- some mistake surely.I think CB looks a decent prospect and agree that a step up in trip would suit (he doesn’t appeal to me as an Arkle winner) but he has plenty to prove at this stage. I wouldn’t be under-rating the winner either, may not have the scope of the Knight horse but won on merit and is one to underestimate at your peril.
January 20, 2009 at 11:09 #205279Sore loser? How can I be a sore loser on a horse I never backed?
Anyway there is a huge difference between being some childish punter who can’t take a beating and someone trying to work out why a horse got beat.
I apologies if you can’t understand what I was trying to say.
Let me try again:
I also thought Elsworth was riding him to beat one horse. Free World was outclassed IMO and went out like a light turning for home.If he hadn’t I doubt if the eventual winner would have got back into it.(what Imeant was if ithad been more of a race up front they might have gone further away from PB earlier on and made it less like he would intothe race) Once he did it became a bit of a sprint which is the very thing you wouldn’t want involved in with a big horse like CB. (4 out it looked like a 2 horse race and I don’t think Elsworth knew PB was gaining on them. When he got within 2 lengths and herealsised he was there he immediately got lower in the saddle and the distance between he an PB increased by about 1 1/2 lengths***)
Having said that despite balloning the last he has run on well and showed that 2m4f will be his min distance in the future.
With a strong gallop, the stiff course and thisa being a pretty poor renewal I would think he has an excellent chance of winning the Arkle.
*** From that point it looked to me like CB was going to pull away from PB again but it wasn’t to be. For that few moments he looked like he had enough toe to see of the challenge of PB but shortly afterwards when the pressure was really applied he began to look a bit one paced. Now that can be down to two things either he simply doesn’t have a lot of toe or he lacked full fitness.
If it is the former then I think what I was afraid of happened…….he couldn’t cope with the sudden injection of pace lost his adavantage and didn’t start to regain ground until running on at the end of the race.
OR
If he wasn’t 100% fit then it could explain why he went from looking like he was going to draw away from PB again and didn’t.Either way I think he has a great chance of winning the Arkle…….if he can run on like that the hill will help him. If he wasn’t 100% fit and could carry that turn of foot forward that he showed on the turn to the straight he will take the world of beating.
Thatis how I saw the raceand others are entitled to disagree. I don’t regard myself as being someone who gets it right all the time, far from it but at least I put some effort and thought into trying.
Now that is my contribution to the thread which I feel is a better way of conducting oneself than spending time mocking or slagging fellow members with no contribution to the discussion whatsoever.
I should add I am not referring to AP who simply made a comment which I have now answered in the best way I can.
January 20, 2009 at 13:55 #205291I agree regarding Elsworth riding Calgary Bay to beat one horse I think thats exactly what he did and I think it was a big mistake. Had he held on to Calgary Bay he probably would’ve won but trying to keep pace with Free World is a silly thing to do given the speed that horse has. On the soft ground at the trip Calgary (who stays at least 2m 5 remember) outstayed Free World who didn’t get home but left himself there to be shot at by something that had been ridden less handily. I don’t think it was the best of rides by Elsworth in all honesty.
For what its worth I don’t agree that Calgary Bay is anything less than fully fit, certainly no less fit than any other Cheltenham contender is at this stage of the season.
January 23, 2009 at 01:42 #205908Hmmmm,
Been doing other things over the past few days. Not got round to looking at this.If it was a mistake to take Free World on, and the race was apparently slowly run (not convinced ). But if it was, do the two go together with a stayer at the trip?
In a slowly run race, had Calgary Bay been held up further off the pace; wouldn’t he be even more outpaced? Because he’d have more ground to make up and the end of the race would’ve been even faster run. With a slower run first half of the race the second half is bound to be run faster, the runners having more energy.
One man’s mockery is another man’s pointing out flaws in another man’s argument.

One man’s slag is another man’s……
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