- This topic has 65 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Ascot 2m 1f
Calgary Bay 11-7 D Elsworth
Cool Operator 11-4 D O Regan
Panjo Bare 11-4 J E Moore
Free world 11-1 R Walsh
Roman Villa 11-0 t M Bachelor
stumped 11-0 M Bradburn
Free World should win but if the pace is slow enough could see Stumped being involved in the finish.
I agree, Free World should really win this and might actually turn out a backable price.
However, that extra furlong might just make the difference and if Calgary Bay is still going well 3 out it’s his for the taking.
On good ground round ascot, cant really see the extra furlong making that much of a difference, unless the Racing Posts going description is wrong (which often enough it is) CB is up against it tomorrow.
Think they will have to try not to make too much use of free world tomorrow though, and if he was to be rested up front off a decent pace, I could see him being turned over, as he was behind ashkazar last year.
Can anyone hazard a guess as to who might cut out the pace tomorrow?
Possibly Stumped?
All the others seem to like coming off of the pace from memory. Theres not much in the field that’ll go on and lead from the off thats for sure.
Will be interesting to see how Ruby rides Free World tomorrow. Might be one for the in running punters IMO
Quick note on the Arkle while I’m here, if Calgary Bay is to go anywhere near the Arkle a win or a narrow defeat has to happen here otherwise I can see Henrietta Knight diverting Cheltenham completely….
On top of that, if Calgary Bay does win tomorrow you’ve got to have I’msingingtheblues for the Arkle surely? 22/1 on BF at the moment yet he beat Calgary Bay at Doncaster this season whilst conceeding 5lbs to him. We all know what happened to Calgary Bay the next time out, the rest is history as they say…
Henrietta Knight stated today that Calgary Bay is much the better horse going left handed (Donny is of course a left handed track too) so I’m slightly baffled why I’msingingtheblues isnt anywhere near Calgary Bay in the Arkle betting…..
- Total Posts 17716
Free World is by far the likeliest winner over the trip, though I would hope that Panjo Bere is capable of better than he showed behind Deep Purple last time.
Calgary Bay is a lay for me.
Calgary bay has always been a talking horse and has seen plenty of support in the arkle market. Imsingingtheblues is currently seen as one of the lesser lights in a strong bunch of Nicholls contenders. The Arkle IMO is priced up wrong as I definitely wouldnt have Tatenen at the head of affairs.
If stumped is allowed to set the pace tomorrow, then surely he will be after a slow pace, if he gets it then I would expect he should have more toe and a better liking for tomorrows conditions than anything else in the field, except possibly free world. Looks a good e/w shot @ 25s.
- Total Posts 17716
I still think Tatenen is a massive Arkle player, Bulwark, though I have to confess to having been disappointed by his defeat in Ireland.
This race is a no-bet event in my eyes, especially given the quality of the closing novices’ hurdle – Karabak, Kangaroo Court, Dreamy Sweeney and the intriguing Somersby all in opposition. The King horse impressed at Cheltenham and I have been hoping for confirmation that he’s to be aimed at the Supreme, but I was quite taken by Somersby’s defeat of Clova Island last time and think he could be rather good (lovely looking animal too).
MO Tatenen is a very good horse but not a great traveller Equitrack IMO, thats what seen him defeated as a hurdler and thats what got him beaten by Followtheplan. This years Arkle looks a competetive event, much more so than last years, and its on the first day, so the track will surely have been watered, and I think it will stretch him beyond his limits, and probably, once again, end up in the hands of a horse who will stay much further than 2 miles.
However in a slow paced 2 mile events throughout the season I think Tatenen will prove very good over time, as he has always loked like a fast finisher with a relatively low optimal cruising speed to me.
If you look at Tatenens two runs against Franchoek as a hurdler, the more pace there was (in the second meeting where Franchoek ran the field into submission), the greater the distance between Franchoek and Tatenen.
This horse is favorite in a race that is evermore becoming a race for staying types. Realistically I would want at least 25s or so, as I dont even think he’ll place on the day unless they go a crawl early on.
The same I would say about Free World however, as having backed him last year against ashkazar, where if I remember he was quite fancied, he sat up close to ashkazar, who was going a decent clip, on the way round and was one of the first to throw the towel in.
Calgary Bay should be much more suited to Cheltenhams conditions IMO than tomorrows, and so defeat shouldnt really be too much of a kick in the nuts to supporters. I wouldnt agree that if he doesnt win tomorrow that he has no chance at cheltenham as tomorrows race looks a completely different contest to the arkle and against a similar level of opposition as he is likely to face in the arkle.
Quick note on the Arkle while I’m here, if Calgary Bay is to go anywhere near the Arkle a win or a narrow defeat has to happen here otherwise I can see Henrietta Knight diverting Cheltenham completely….
On top of that, if Calgary Bay does win tomorrow you’ve got to have I’msingingtheblues for the Arkle surely? 22/1 on BF at the moment yet he beat Calgary Bay at Doncaster this season whilst conceeding 5lbs to him. We all know what happened to Calgary Bay the next time out, the rest is history as they say…
Agreed, HTH.
Only a serious drubbing will see Calgary Bay miss the Arkle. A win or a narrow defeat and all roads lead to Cheltenham.
I’m also a huge fan of I’msingingtheblues and Paul Nicholls asked the same question you have regarding his price compared to Calgary Bay.
I’d feel pretty confident about CB reversing form with ISTB next time, though. Paul Nicholls horse had the benefit of a run and the experience advantage over CB, who I don’t think was given a tough time that day, despite the proximity to the winner at the finish.
HK has always called Calgary Bay a ‘long-term project’ and considers the race tomorrow as an ‘education’. Should be even better in a year or two!
I agree with Equitrack about Somersby – definitely one for the shortlist.
Already commented on this in Cheltenham forum. Free World to have way to much speed for Calgary Bay.
Ground at Ascot looks to be testing enough judging by the opening hurdle races. If its similar on the chase course it may suit Calgary Bay better than Free World. I’d still expect the Nicholls horse to win but it may not be straight forward.
Well Panjo Bere wins.
As I feared before the off the stamina seemed to sap out of Free World on this ground at this trip on this track. Faded a bit more than I expected he would but the ground at Ascot is obviously more testing than anyone really expected it to be.
Calgary Bay has run a good race but Panjo Bere was a deserved winner on the day.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.