Modern Odds

[Cymro]

Only an observation but I don’t see the more modern type of odds (such as 7/5, 17/10, 9/5, 16/5) mirrored for odds-on prices, whereas the older odds seem to be used on both sides of the even money divide. No idea why that would be necessarily, as surely shaving prices to such small margins would be needed for both odds against and odds on

[Cork All Star]

These modern odds are another way punters are being screwed.

[Gingertipster]

Suspect it is because in my experience odds-on horses need a greater percentage mark-up than odds-against.

ie
If believing a horse has a 3% chance of winning I’d usually require 50/1 (fair 2%) or more, which is only a margin of error of 1% (3 – 2 = 1).
If believing a horse has a 14.5% chance of winning I’d usually require 7/1 (fair 12.5%) or more, which is a margin of error of 2% (14.5 – 12.5 = 2).
If believing a horse has a 23% chance of winning I’d usually require 4/1 (fair 20%) or more, which is a margin of error of 3% (23 – 20 = 3).
Something I believe to have a 54% chance I’d usually require Evens (fair 50%) or more, a mark up of 4% (54 – 50 = 4).
If I did bet at long odds-on then something I believed to have an 80% chance of winning would require 1/3 (fair 75%) or more, which is a margin for error of 5% (80 – 75 = 5).

Although in all probability my minimum “margin of error” is often larger than a bookies mark up, it is similar in that bookies require a bigger mark up / margin of error for the shorties than they do odds against because the shorter a price is, the more difficult to work out. The “mark up” / margin of error being a smaller proportion of the overall offered price. ie More difficult because @ 1/3 the 5% added is still only 6.66 recurring % of 75, whereas with Evens the 4 added is 8% of 50… and with 4/1 the 3 added is 15% of 20 etc.

So bookmakers probably don’t want or need more prices at odds on.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

When roughly:
125/1 = 0.8%
150/1 = 0.66%
200/1 = 0.5%
250/1 = 0.4%
300/1 = 0.33%
400/1 = 0.25%
500/1 = 0.2%
800/1 = 0.125%
999/1 = 0.1%

Have not looked recently, but am surprised no bookie uses 132/1 (0.75%)

Value Is Everything

[Cymro]

Thank you Gingertipster, what a great reply

[Author]

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