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A fair renewal of this race and I’ve backed Invincible Army to follow in the hoof prints of such recent greats as Zafeen, Excellent Art, Dark Angel, Ribchester and Harry Angel.
I managed to snap up 4/1 yesterday which I’m more than happy with given his profile but there is serious competition in the shapes of Enjazaat and James Garfield.
The ground should be perfect, there are no penalties and so the best horse really should win. Hopefully we’ll see a top class race in the effort to see who’ll that is.
I reckon Lansky has a chance- when I saw him run at Windsor and then York he looked a very muscular, powerful type, I think he could have a surprising amount of improvement going back to six furlongs. And his form isn’t that bad anyway.
A lot of these are more exposed types but I do recall reading that this race normally gets dominated by the more experience types. But as I rarely back them anyway it matters not a jot to me!
James garfield, one of my favourites this year, he was unlucky last time at a trip i dont think suits him, he was over priced then and his 4th to expert eye has thrown out a group 2 winner and a listed winner either side of his placing, not to mention expert eye looks a monster, return to 6f should suit him and if the ground is generally good/good to soft i think hes a steal at 4/1
Invincible army won a very weak group 3 i think, sands of mali could be anything at this stage and he dusted him off easily, so im not convinced his form is strong yet should he win ill be on sands of mali NTO im not sold on enjazaat although the horse he beaten comfortably since won a listed race
Ill be surprised if the front 3 dont dominate the race 1-2-3
Lansky looked an improver but LTO i thought he looked like he needed further rather than shorter
James garfield at 4/1
I mentioned on the Cheveley Park Stakes thread that I had backed Invincible Army at 4/1 for the Mill Reef. I had a feeling US Navy Flag may not show, as was the case with last week’s Flying Childers. He broke the track record at Kempton last time out and looks a decent sprinter. I reckon that Sands Of Mali, who beat Invincible Army in the Gimcrack, is very smart.
Around about the same time I took a punt on Michael Bell’s Revived in the Firth Of Clyde at 25/1. I read somewhere that she was all out to win last time but watching the race I felt she won with plenty in hand, going away as she was eased close home. She held a Cheveley Park Stakes entry, so was presumably thought better than the Racing Post Rating of 71 she earned for her win after her debut 5th. I just thought a fiver at 25/1 was better than backing a shortie on heavy ground at a time of year when there can be odd results.
My other ante-post for the Weekend was Teodoro from the Tom Dascombe yard in the Duty Free Handicap. He has run up a hat-trick and improved quickly in the process. He made all last time and kept finding more in front, to defy those queuing up in behind for a late run. He could easily have more to come and I thought 14/1 was worth a go. God forbid that we get the scenario where he made all last time and then mysteriously gets held up this time. I have seen that more often than seems wholly natural in the past.
That was my idea of this weeks value bets ante-post.
Mill Reef Invincible Army 4/1
Firth Of Clyde (Assuming the meeting goes ahead) Revived 25/1
Duty Free Handicap Teodoro 14/1Good Luck Everybody this weekend.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With time on my hands now I don’t have to wade through Ayr’s card I’ve managed to hammer out my bets for this race by adding a couple to my Invincible Army (4/1) bet.
I’ve gone in and backed Grand Koonta each-way at 20/1. I feel he’s overpriced representing powerful connections (were victorious in this last year). He ran a promising debut at Newbury on bad ground behind Nebo in what turned out to be a hot race indeed. That was followed up by a really good effort when only failing to get up to win at Newmarket by a neck. That neck defeat was to none other than the still unbeaten and Group 3 winning Godolphin colt Glorious Journey. The third came and filled the same position in the Albany at Royal Ascot before winning at Windsor and even the fifth placed horse is now a dual winner. Grand Koonta then slaughtered the opposition in a Windsor maiden before not running his race when stepped up in grade for the July Stakes. He’s been given a nice break since, and considering connections were keen to step him straight into Group level after breaking his duck and now returns after a break at the same level I’m left thinking they must feel they have a good’un on their hands. And I always forgive a horse one bad run.
Invincible Army is still a good result but Grand Koonta is (given the price) obviously the preferred one.
I’ve had a saver on James Garfield at 4/1 as well, as I do see him as the main danger in the race.
I’m pretty happy with where I stand with this one.
Invincible Army has done nothing wrong this season but I think James Garfield is stronger form and I was so impressed by him and Wells Farhhh Go last time out… gotta back him at 4/1.
Good luck everybody!
So happy that James Garfield won! Just cannot dislike this horse!
I did not see the replay but it seemed to me he did have a line that made Invincible Army to switch, what do you guys think?
So happy that James Garfield won! Just cannot dislike this horse!
I did not see the replay but it seemed to me he did have a line that made Invincible Army to switch, what do you guys think?
Horse only switched, their wasnt interference, he got caught for a bit of toe i feel the jockey should have been on invincible army about a 1/2 f sooner than he was
Glad ge finally got infront, big fan of this horse, deserved that.
As I said in an earlier post; Invicible Army always travels well in his races and barely stays 6f.
Jockey has to hold the horse up/find cover to get the trip. Trouble in running always a distinct possibility with one of his type. Even so, did not make enough ground once clear to suggest he was unlucky.
However, I’d really like to see Invincible Army back at 5f, can still improve at the minimum.
Value Is EverythingNot Martin Harley’s finest hour but not a terrible result for me and I’ll be rooting for James Garfield should he make it to his Breeders Cup engagement.
A good race.
Martin Harley was probably hamstrung by instructions today. Invincible Army pinged the stalls and had the chance to establish an early advantage. Instead, he took the horse back and negated the swift break.
Sometimes in racing you have to spot an opportunity and getting a cheap lead is one of the best ones to get in a short race.
Like a lot of situations in Horse Racing, there is a lack of nous and next to no thinking outside a very narrow, and small minded, box.
It’s probably relatively easy to compare how many Classic winners Frankie has ridden against the number Martin Hardly (sic) has in his career. Funny how that works out
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That’s extremely harsh on Martin Harley, Steve.
Attributes, deficiencies and capabilities of each individual horse is different. Frankie was on a horse coming back from 7f to 6f, whose best attribute at today’s distance is stamina. James Garfield was never going to travel as well as Invincible Army. Taking in to account both horses attributes and deficiencies imo Frankie would’ve won anyway had Harley found a way through straight away. Some horses have to be settled otherwise they don’t show their best, being too free to get the trip. Invincible Army has bags of speed and will prove at least as effective at 5f. Harley played the percentage call, doing what should’ve been in Invincible Army’s best interests to win the race – taking a pull to settle him. Sometimes gaps just don’t come; but as I say – not that in this case it made the difference between winning and losing.Value Is EverythingNone the less, I’m sure everyone other than James Garfield supporters would have wanted to see what would have happened should Invincible Army have got a clear run.
That’s extremely harsh on Martin Harley, Steve.
Attributes, deficiencies and capabilities of each individual horse is different. Frankie was on a horse coming back from 7f to 6f, whose best attribute at today’s distance is stamina. James Garfield was never going to travel as well as Invincible Army. Taking in to account both horses attributes and deficiencies imo Frankie would’ve won anyway had Harley found a way through straight away. Some horses have to be settled otherwise they don’t show their best, being too free to get the trip. Invincible Army has bags of speed and will prove at least as effective at 5f. Harley played the percentage call, doing what should’ve been in Invincible Army’s best interests to win the race – taking a pull to settle him. Sometimes gaps just don’t come; but as I say – not that in this case it made the difference between winning and losing.I understand all of that Ginger. In a sprint race though, a good start is one of the most important factors, and when you fly out and get the chance to pinch a few lengths for no expenditure of energy, it’s wasteful to throw it away.
I like to think outside of the standard accepted opinions in racing. How much was Invincible Army beaten? How many lengths may he have gained if allowed to go on from his flying start? How many lengths was he likely to lose for not being held up?
Invincible Army is getting into a habit of losing races. If you don’t change something, then it’s likely that will continue to happen.
I think very little thought goes into tactics in racing, particularly regarding adapting to take advantage of situations that arise.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
None the less, I’m sure everyone other than James Garfield supporters would have wanted to see what would have happened should Invincible Army have got a clear run.
Dont think i was worried at any point other than i think IA would have been a little closer at the end, he got caught out stamina and i didnt see a part in the race were IA was hampered for a run, he had to switch when JG came past but his stride was not broken and it was a minimal move to manoeuvre around JG
Short of room yes, but was he denied a run? Not that i saw… he definitely wasnt closing at the line and frankie put the whip away
I understand all of that Ginger. In a sprint race though, a good start is one of the most important factors, and when you fly out and get the chance to pinch a few lengths for no expenditure of energy, it’s wasteful to throw it away.
Invincible Army is a horse that barely gets 6f.
If Invincible Army were allowed to “pinch a few lengths”, Steve; he’d in all probability race too freely in a prominent position, so there would be a lot of “expenditure of energy wasted”. In all probability would not get home. So Harley did what is the percentage call.I like to think outside of the standard accepted opinions in racing. How much was Invincible Army beaten? How many lengths may he have gained if allowed to go on from his flying start? How many lengths was he likely to lose for not being held up?
With a horse like Invincible Army, number of “lengths gained” by going on after a “flying start” is significantly outweighed by the number of lengths lost by being too free without cover.
Invincible Army is getting into a habit of losing races. If you don’t change something, then it’s likely that will continue to happen.
I think very little thought goes into tactics in racing, particularly regarding adapting to take advantage of situations that arise.
I agree that Invincible Army is getting in to a habit of losing races and something different should indeed be tried. But disagree, I think a lot of thought has gone into tactics. Allowing him to stride on won’t teach restraint and therefore may set him back – by learning the wrong things.
Although it’s possible he’s simply better on the AW. imo They should run him instead at 5f; where the need for his jockey to keep hold of him to get home is far less… Then – after he learns to settle better – go back to 6f. Given time/experience may eventually be able to let him go after a flying start; just not yet.
Value Is EverythingSay they had let Invincible Army go from the front in the Mill Reef, and he had won. Wouldn’t that have been a definitive answer to the question? Equally, if he had gone 3 lengths clear and folded up, it would have definitively told them he needs held up.
I’m all for getting to the ideal scenario as soon as possible. Some of these young sprinters don’t go on at 3YO and it may be that they end up with a horse whose career is effectively over by the time they work him out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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