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I have to agree with you EW – i said after Brave Tin Solider won his maiden 2 weeks ago that I liked Conquest, Wi Dud and Hellvelyn, and they all run.
Lay Brave Tin Solider definitely, he wants further. But Dutch Art – the 3rd in the Morny, Excellent Art, only won the Mill Reef very narrowly (tends to be a poor race), and I’m not convinced by the form of the 2yo Ascot race he won.
At least with Hellvelyn, you’re getting a genuine horse with proven form. He’s 6/1!!!
Wi Dud may be stretched by the 6 furlongs, but Conquest looked to get the trip well last time in the Gimcrack. He’s 6/1 as well, but I definitely think Hellvelyn is the best value.
You can get 9/1 Wi Dud. Is it me or is that a serious overprice?
Doesn’t look a one horse race to me.
Not saying Dutch Art can’t win, but i think Hellvelyn, Wi Dud and Conquest will give him a very good race
<br>I’m on Hellvelyn btw, beaten by a very good horse in Holy Roman Empire
(Edited by empty wallet at 3:43 am on Sep. 29, 2006)
Will be interesting to see how the Magic America gets on in Cheveley Park, if she don’t run well, i may get stuck into laying Dutch Art
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(Edited by empty wallet at 12:32 am on Sep. 29, 2006)
Quote: from empty wallet on 12:30 am on Sep. 29, 2006[br]Will be interesting to see how the Magic America gets on in Cheveley Park, if she don’t run well, i may get stuck into laying Dutch Art
<br>(Edited by empty wallet at 12:32 am on Sep. 29, 2006)<br>
<br>I think Magic America needed the rain to fall and keep falling.
I wouldn’t be so sure about that TMM, not assessed going today, but there looked to be enough cut for her to me and all times slower than RP standard suggesting Good or more likely slower
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:43 am on Sep. 29, 2006)
Another thing regarding Magic America, don’t believe French going descriptions, they’re worse than ours imo
It’s hard to get a time based going assessment from French races because they tend to dawdle early on in many,which happened in Morny.<br> <br>I got it as Good to Soft,but wouldn’t be confident on that going assesment either
(Edited by empty wallet at 1:23 am on Sep. 29, 2006)
Well, i’ve gone through form 3/4 times now and i just can’t figure why Dutch Art commands such a price – must have missed summat:o the layers have seen
<br> Hellvelyn is cracking value imhaho
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(Edited by empty wallet at 2:23 am on Sep. 29, 2006)
Prix Morny:
In last 5 years with the odd exception of Johannesburg, horses that contest the Morny fail to win the Middle Parl, in fact, nearly all don’t even go on to win a G1 at 2yo, with the majority going on to win at G2 and below, suprisingly most not even being up to G2 winning standard
Thats a poor race record imo
This makes me think the Morny may be overrated as G1 contest (in fact, it maybe wants downgrading) and thus some horses are awarded a higher rating than they probably should be, like Dutch Art, i cannot for life of me work out why he’s rated well ahead of Hellvelyn unless he’s a Johannesburg in disguise
Surely 3 sets of ratingsmongers can’t be wrong can they?
<br>We’ll find out at around 3.15
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:33 am on Sep. 29, 2006)
Jackane, I’m puzzled by your comment that Hellvellyn is a genuine horse with proven form. In what regard is his form proven to a greater extent than that of Dutch Art. I think Helvellyn won what in hindsight was a very average Coventry, that bar Holy Roman Emperor (who patently failed to give his running) hasn’t thrown up a single winner at listed level or above. There is nothing wrong with his second to that rival in the Phoenix next time, other than that he was well and truly put in his place and I think he’ll struggle today.
I agree with the odds compilers and ratings that Dutch Art is the most likely winner, however like the ratings show, he isn’t an odds on shot. On their Gimcrack form both Conquest and Wi Dud look overpriced, the question is which one of those is likeliest to repeat or improve upon that form faced with a stiffish 6f. Wi Dud was outstayed by Conquest and showed in the Flying Childers that speed is his forte, I think he’ll do well to reverse the Gimcrack form. Conquest is undoubtedly quirky but few would argue Jimmy Fortune has devleoped a good partnership with him and he was possibly value for more in the Gimcrack having met with interference. I think at 7/1 he rates a really good bet, if it wasn’t for his quirky nature he’d be around 9/2 imo.
In the Cheveley Park I’m not sure that Sander Camillo will necessarily be as inconvenienced by slow ground as some seem to think, it was possibly more a factor that she was undone by inexperience. That said Indian Ink makes some appeal each way against her, couldn’t have been more impressive last time and I thought she shaped as the best filly in the Lowther. Ridden to track the lead rather than make it I think she can havea say in the finish. Possible that Magic America will get done for toe against a few of those I feel.
I think Silca Chiave will win that now (Indian Ink for a place).. I can’t have Magic America. I do think Dutch Art will take all the beating. He beat Simply perfect comfortably on debut and she has won at group level since and I don’t really think the horse has been fully extended so far. I can’t see him being beaten to be honest.. Hellvellyn should give him the most to do in my book.. Major Cadeaux hasn’t run since the coventry has he DJ? He looked a good horse to me and may well have bolstered the form had he run again..
(Edited by Aragorn at 9:47 am on Sep. 29, 2006)
Correct Aragorn, neither the second Major Cadeaux or the third Tariq has run since the Coventry.
Anyone a view on the Sommerville Tattersalls Stakes? I really like Big Rob. He looked destined for better things when impressively winning his maiden at Sandown and also ran very well in a particulalry good time at Goodwood last time, getting outstayed by Caldra having looked a probably winner when going to the front. Drop back in trip should hold no fears.
Thousand Words has the potential to start a silly price if he continues to drift. His Newbury win is rock solid as the time and subsequent efforts of Drumfire show but I find it hard to forgive his effort at Tork last time, briefly looking like taking command but finding nothing the first time he’s ever come under serious pressure. If he’s learnt from that he’ll be the danger.
I’m pinning my hopes on the fact that the ground was far too quick for Baby Strange at the coventry and also that as there is likely to be much less fanfare at HQ than at Ascot (Got badly worked up in the prelims) the horse should relax more before the start.. If you ignore that run this horse has shown lots of potential and acts on the ground.. I’ve backed to win at 14’s with a bit of place money to cover me if it gets beaten into a place..
I suppose Magic Americas Morny reads well doesnt it but I think its not near the same horse on faster going.
I like Conquest in the other race a lot. To me he has the profile of a horse thats growing up both mentally and physcially. Certainly to most paddock observers he was a different physical specimen last day then to previous efforts where it looked as if he couldnt stay six. If that upward curve is continuing, he could take beating. Not sure about the track though.
SHL
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