- This topic has 180 replies, 49 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
That’s a crock about French Bred I must have read it dozens of times on here alone how they don’t last longand heard it so many rimes on broadcasts even the cleaning lady at Cowdenbeath’s football park knows he’s French bred. He was readily available at evens for the King George last year(SP 10/11) because he was "French bred" and the party was over according to too many people.
That aside who in their right mind would back Imperial Commander at 6/1 when they can get 7/2 without Kauto Star?
It’s a huge risk backing him to beat the best chaser in the world.
First off you would have to hope Kauto was 100% fit at Haydock and if he wasn’t you would have to hope he isn’t going to show the improvement he showed between the 2 races last season.
Over and above that there’s the question of how Imperial Commander will respond to a 2nd race within a short space of time. He’s been well beaten the last twice and his wins have come after a long break.
Sooner or later Kauto Star will have had enough and no longer be the best. Until then there is no such a thing as value in backing anything to beat him at level weights especially round Kempton. Your only chance is if Kauto falls or he has come to the end of his career as a champion.
There never has been and there never will be "Value" in backing losers and there’s thousands of 6/1 shots out there that have realistic chances to bet without backing something like Imperial Commander on a wing and a prayer.
Another point I would like to comment on is your assumption that it was more than public money that shortened him up at Haydock. I think your stabbing a wild guess and pulling that one out your backside and there’s no way of telling if Clive Smith and co backed him or not.
He certainly wasn’t at his best in the 2008 running and was backed down to 2/5 for that. He has started odds on for every race he has run in bar the Gold Cup and I saw nothing to indicate he was jumping out his skin before this years race.
Sure he was longer a week or two before the race he always is. I backed him for a fair amount myself but it didn’t even put a dent in his price.
I think it’s obvious there was no word out for him on the day as his price was barely affected:-
£1000-£1100 £3200-£4000 £1600-£2000 (x2) £800-£1000 £3200-£4400 £1600-£2200 (x2) £1200-£1650 £800-£1100 (x5) £400-£550 £1000-£1500 £600-£900 £400-£600 (x2) £4000-£6500 £400-£650
That’s over 35k in bets and there would be alot more on him than that yet he only moved fraction from 8/11 to 4/6 on the day.
If the word was out as you put it that money alone would have made him 2/5 like the year before in a flash
I’d say from all the evidence available before the race and after it’s as Ruby said "He needed that" and not what you are dreaming up in your head.
Fist,
French breds don’t tend to last as long as British or Irish breds, may be because they start jumping earlier in their career. I’d estimate (on average) they start regressing a year earlier than their cousins. Kauto Star is almost 10 years old, so (effectively) add a year to 11. Something that can alter the situation is if they are lightly raced over the years, but Kauto Star has (as far as I know) never had any time off.
As I said, the "French Bred" issue has not come in to Kauto Star’s performances until this season.
7/2 IC without KS is a very good price, which is why I’ve had the majority of my stake at that price. Still think 6/1 is worth taking with KS. As Kauto’s Betfair Chase win bears no relation to his price here. And AT THE PRICE is worth taking on. Without working the race out competely, I’d say Kauto Star has around a 50% chance of winning. To back Kauto at 4/6, you must believe him to have a better than 60% chance.
Yes, some day Kauto will have had enough. He was not at his best to win the Betfair, so it is POSSIBLE the time has come. Not saying it definitely has, just his price (imo) does not reflect the possibility. Unlike you Fist, my opinion is not black and white, it’s about possibilities and percentages.
The market move for Kauto at Haydock was not just the small move on course, but a far bigger one from the time the markets opened in the morning.
Kauto Star was NOT "backed down to 2/5" in last year’s Betfair, if anything he drifted out; opening at 4/11. There was not as much confidence in KS last year, despite it being a poorer race than this time around. Therefore he MAY not be able to improve enough to show his best at Kempton. Though MAY not need to show his best to win.
Your assumption that Imperial Commander is no good after only five weeks off (from Betfair to King George) seems entirely based on last year’s races. Twister was in awful form then, with only 1 winner in December from 46 runners. That a far more likely reason for a poor run than the "quick reappearance" or indeed it being right-handed. The King George to Ryanair break may also be down to poor stable form with 1 winner in 35 in January. Dec and Jan combined 2 winners from 81 runners. There may not have been time to get a run in to him once the stable had recovered. Besides, why bother with a "prep" (chancing him being knocked back) when he goes so well fresh?
IC only ran three times in his novice year, last run on Dec 14th when probably injured. There was however, less than four weeks between his first two runs (wins). Also ran well as a novice hurdler to be 3rd at Aintree after finishing 7th at Cheltenham.
Value Is EverythingImperial Commander was clearly amiss in last year’s King George. He went for much of the race like the second best horse I though until folding in strides on the turn.
If he reproduces his Haydock run it’s hard to see him not being second best. It’s a no-brainer for me choosing between him at 7/2 without the fav or siding with Barber Shop, Nacarat or Deep Purple.
I had a drunken argument with a dude last night who was trying to convince me that Barber’s Shop is a better horse then Kauto Star
I was actually quite offended
I had a drunken argument with a dude last night who was trying to convince me that Barber’s Shop is a better horse then Kauto Star
I was actually quite offended
You were too p1ssd to know who it was you were talking too mate. Bang goes your knighthood!
Value Is EverythingI hav to say Kauto should get nice ground,he will blitz them again,hes a better jumper than Imperial commander,thats what won him the Betfair,if IC was mine then id have him off to the emerald isle for the Lexus.Kempton realy suits the star,Ive also had two sneaky bets without Kauto and they are Barber shop @ 9s and Racing Demon whos been laid out for this @ 33s.
- Total Posts 17716
Just my opinion, but anyone backing Imperial Commander is taking a punt on one of the most inconsistent horses in training, and from a yard not famous for its horses maintaining their form throughout the season.
Fwiw, I doubt Kauto Star ran anywhere near his best in the Betfair, and there’s no guarantee he will on Boxing Day, but there are any number of horses who are more likely to run their races, and finish 2nd to him, than the Twiston-Davies horse.Barring incident then Kauto Star wins this by 10+ lengths. He will destroy the opposition. KG victory #4 coming up.
I’ve always taken on Kauto for fun mostly, but I’ll just watch the procession this time.
Just my opinion, but anyone backing Imperial Commander is taking a punt on one of the most inconsistent horses in training, and from a yard not famous for its horses maintaining their form throughout the season.
Fwiw, I doubt Kauto Star ran anywhere near his best in the Betfair, and there’s no guarantee he will on Boxing Day, but there are any number of horses who are more likely to run their races, and finish 2nd to him, than the Twiston-Davies horse.I agree that Imperial Commander is very much an in-and-out performer and that there’s as good a chance him bombing out as running his race. Therefore I’ll concede that there are other horses more likely to run their race. But given their limitations based on ability, I still think he’s the likeliest to finish second. Bar Madison de Berlais and Master Medic who I have lots of time for, there aren’t any horses left in the race that I’d want on side in Grade 1 company this year.
It’s a valid point that the 7/2 probably isn’t the best bet to be had over the Christmas period though reet.
A little off topic but has anyone got a link or a site for last years race iv just found that its been recorded over on the sky plus
with thanks.
Re Kauto Star. It’s as much if not more how many starts he’s had compared to the likes of Denman and Our Vic than his origin. There are a lot of miles on his clock. I still think he’ll take the King George, but not the Gold Cup.
Every time someone says Kauto Star is vulnerable/not up to his old self/has regressed, BET HIM. You’d think people would learn by now
.- Total Posts 17716
I agree that Imperial Commander is very much an in-and-out performer and that there’s as good a chance him bombing out as running his race. Therefore I’ll concede that there are other horses more likely to run their race. But given their limitations based on ability, I still think he’s the likeliest to finish second. Bar Madison de Berlais and Master Medic who I have lots of time for, there aren’t any horses left in the race that I’d want on side in Grade 1 company this year.
I hear what you’re saying DJ, but I’d always be suspicious of any form that makes a horse an overnight superstar.
No doubt Imperial Commander is improving, and was likely to progress a little more for the step up in distance, but I can’t have it that he’s suddenly the equal of the best horse we’ve seen in the past 20 years, as Nick Mordin and many others seem to take as read. Imo, there are any number of holes in that supposition and, good horse though he is, I doubt he’s anywhere near the 174 the OH rates him.
Even if he runs to his best, which is far from a certainty, I’d still take such as Albertas Run and Madison Du Berlais to finish in front of him, and at a better price.Imperial Commander is a top-class animal reet, and almost certainly better than Alberta’s Run.
Mind you, I have laid him without Kauto Star, as I think he is a) not entirely certain to run his race, and b) almost certainly a deal better going left-handed.
Something may have been amiss at Kempton last year, DJ, but there were apparently no excuses at Punchestown where he was PU’d. I can’t have him myself.
Deep Purple has today drifted with a couple of firms but has come in in the without Kauto market, to 6/1. Value has now gone imo.
.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.