- This topic has 58 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 1 year ago by
.
-
Posts
-
“What’s mildly amusing about what I said Sam?”
This is what you said,
“A draw bias over 2m? Not sure about that pal.
I haven’t checked the stats for it admittedly. And don’t feel I need to. It’s probably stupid of me but I haven’t spent a huge amount of time looking at the opposition either.
Vauban is head and shoulders above this lot and has been allocated a penalty kick in terms of weight imo.
It might sound churlish to say the above given my comment of not knowing much about the opposition but none of them would be thinking of coming over for ascot. Let alone coming over and scooting home in the triumph or ever running state man to 5l!”
Vauban is an excellent horse and favouritism is based on his dual code exploits but to say he is going to do this and that to the opposition based on said exploits regardless of factors you admit to knowing nothing about, is in itself mildly amusing without my needing to even go into them Tiz, with of course all due respect to you.1 the draw is vital
2 we don’t yet know the conditions
3 the jockey is vital as frankie Detorri has found to his detriment on more than one occasion
4 this race has a history of accidents which has scuppered the hopes of many of a renowned runner from Ireland and these shores and many a favourite.
5 the harder the ground, the more unlikely a European victor
6 the softer the ground the more unlikely a European victor perversely
7 underestimating the home runners has been the undoing of many a European runner here.
8 Joseph O’Brien is the winning most European trainer in recent years.
9 vauban is clear favourite, but we’ll know much much more of his chances on the day once all the factors which make this race such a unique challenge are known.
10. There’s an 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and a 16 too but I didn’t want to go on and on.And I can counteract every one of your points by simply saying he’s by some distance the best horse in the race!
It’s not even up for debate. He could have 20lb in hand on most of the rest of them.
Most field are ex Euros or Euro / Japan trained , only 8 out top 30 NZ or OZ bred , they won’t go to Ascot as a lot been there already and been purchased for big money after for OZ .
Surefire won at Royal Ascot in 2021 , he has done well out of the Waller yard , that day at Ascot 17 in field , 7 now in OZ , two ran this weekend alone .Wolferton Stakes is another race gets cherry picked each year by the big owners .
I think Vauban should win and Mullins has a very good record in OZ , but 20 pounds on them , seems a lot . Joseph O’ Brien’s two ran good lead up races in Caulfield Cup if they can get in the big one they will go well imho .Vauban is the best rated horse in the race on current form by some way. But that does not guarantee him the race. Being the best horse in the race on paper has not worked out well for many horses in the past as the race is always run on grass.
“The glorious uncertainty of racing”is never more pronounced than in this particular race. Invariably it is a jockey and trainer with intimate familiarity with the race and track conditions who prevails. No one from Mullins’ yard satisfies that criteria and hopefully he’ll engage a decent Australian rider. Damian lane would be top of the list followed by Hong Kong based Hugh Bowman and Zac Purton. When Mullins goes across the channel, He often books a decent French jockey for the same reasons and I’d be surprised if that is not the case here. There are several other home based jockeys who would be head and shoulders above any Irish or British riders for the above reasons.
Ryan Moore is first choice but may be unavailable if Coolmore have a runner.
VAUBAN is a worthy favourite but in the words of Delboy it is not “il du fait au complait “ and if you really think it is Rodney, I know what Delboy would say next!!
https://www.sportinglife.com/amp/racing/news/lexus-melbourne-cup-weights-vauban-handed-55kg/212402Frankie Dettori won’t be able to ride to to bans he got for overuse of whip on two of his Ascot champions day rides ruling him out for 16days
Vf x
“Vauban is the best rated horse in the race on current form by some way. But that does not guarantee him the race. ”
He’s not even that
Gold trip is a group 1 winner and the reigning champ
Vaubans won a group 3 beating Valiant King by 1 1/2 lengths who then got beaten further next time by Adelaide River
He then finished 6th in the caulfield cup finishing 3 lengths behind gold trip
Gold trip was giving him 19lbs, Vauban was giving him 10lbs
To think Vauban is a cert you’d need to think he was a 120+ rated stayer, so you’d be thinking he was the best 2 miler in Europe.
The caulfield cup sums up how much Vauban isn’t a certainty so many horses got poor runs through
I kind of hope vauban wins as so many people are on him and good luck to those on at 10/1+ but he won’t be carrying my money at that price
Thank you. Zac purton on Absurde is interesting at the price and as you say Gold trip who won it last year has been given a chance at the weights and on last year’s evidence is still the actual best horse. The draw will have it’s say.
But the patriotic favour of uk and Irish punters towards their own horses and their perception of their chances will continue to colour the price despite punters admitted lack of basic knowledge of the race.
As Ireland Scotland England and Wales found out in the rugby lot’s of people saying you are going to win doesn’t actually get you to the final.
The jockey bookings and the draw will be interesting to know along with the final line up then we can start talking about the outcome based on that. Despite perception here the home side have a tremendous advantage.“Frankie Dettori won’t be able to ride to to bans he got for overuse of whip on two of his Ascot champions day rides ruling him out for 16days”
He can defer his ban, or appeal based on his previous record, or, just like in days of old he can seek out the highest KC in the land and take legal recourse ala Carman QC. He could use his ‘appearance’ fee to cover his legal costs or those he has been demanding successfully all over Ireland 🇮🇪 with the one exception when an astute racecourse already flush with upfront ticket sales called his bluff when his handlers asked for more than the pre agreed fee. But he’s fallen foul of the Melbourne stewards more than once so it might not be money well spent.
Absurde is interesting
Vauban got a very easy lead in a slowly run race at ascot
Absurde ran against the pace bias that day and gets a swing at the weights
Il be waiting for final fields but there’s a few plotty looking ones
If I can’t find 2 or 3 I like il probably end up having £1 on everything that is 100.0+ on betfair and watching for fun
My angles the jockeys, last year’s winner the weights and the draw and last year’s winning jockey who got the Irish horse up in the caufield ahead of gold trip and whose wife dreamt every vital detail of his win and couldn’t tell him so as not to “jinx it.”
More Felons aka Scriptwriter ran a top race in Geelong Cup a few hours ago , 5 th only half length from winner , stormed down outside and looked winner at one point . Franked the Absurde formline . First 6 home all imports from Europe , Amade back to form at advanced age won it and Waterville 4 th so he’s got a race in him soon .
Racing post summary
Sam’s selections
Militarize and Gold trip both win
Fangirl each way.Alligator Blood Fifth in this last year and will no doubt give it a solid go from a prominent position
Duais Classy mare at her best but has been behind Alligator Blood the last twice
Fangirl Heads into this in great form; isn’t proven at the trip but might relish it
Gold Trip Makes quick return but comes into this in top form and blinkers return
King Colorado Ran well when visor was tried last time; needs more to feature though
Militarize Three-time Group 1 winner already; strong claims off a low weight
Mr Brightside Has a great record at this track and no surprise if he bounces back to his best here
My Oberon Ran well last time but his record of 0/10 in Group 1s is hard to ignore
Pinstriped Smart sort but tough enough task without factoring a fairly wide draw
Romantic Warrior Just below his best behind Gold Trip recently but can be sharper for that; big chance
Victoria Road Lightly raced this campaign after a heavy time of it as a 2yo; interesting sent south
Zaaki Fourth from the inside draw 12 months ago; stall 12 this time no bonusBack to the big race and Gold trip if reunited for this with his winning jockey.
Looks a very strong winner. Just needs the draw. given a big chance by the handicapper who hasn’t asked too much of that horse.
Even though the draw is crucial, has a tactical jockey on board who can countermand the draw. Four winners at today’s meeting. Zahara.Nothing to worry Willie Mullins too much last few days , Cleveland was good last night in Moonie Valley Gold Cup but he turns it in a bit at times and I wouldn’t have a bar of him in big one .
Romantic Warrior class came through today in Cox Plate , comes from Godolphin / Darley family I see, from Newmarket Yearling sales . Zaaki ran so well, out wide , had to work a lot from draw but still stuck on , another 100 K in bank , 11 million AUD in bank , not a bad buy few years back.
Bendigo Cup Wednesday will sort a few out .FinalFurlong91
“Vaubans won a group 3 beating Valiant King by 1 1/2 lengths who then got beaten further next time by Adelaide River
He then finished 6th in the caulfield cup finishing 3 lengths behind gold trip
Gold trip was giving him 19lbs, Vauban was giving him 10lbs”The problem I have with taking that form literally was that Mullins described Vauban at Naas as being ‘big in the ring’ having ‘not done much with him since Ascot’. So that sounds like he wasn’t at A1 but was still impressive at A2 or A3 condition.
I’m not at the confident level of TC, but to me he has a right chance and happy with my 10-1 ew taken in the Summer.
Last chance for a couple today in Bendigo Cup to get a penalty and get into Cup. Interpretation ex Ballydoyle one of them.
For me Each Way ex Crisford trained Luncies . Goes well in these races , trip suits and off correct weight 3 Rd up , plenty others in long handicap .I cannot see how Vauban draws better , out the 3 he’s got Gold Trip inside him and Serpentine coming out one will likely find the lead , he can just sit in behind Serpentine like he’s the pacemaker . Couple fancied got wide alleys . Absurde gets the 8 , so Willie Mullins must be well pleased .
Ground fast today , if it’s lightening fast could be a worry I suppose .
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.