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Melbourne Cup 2023

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Melbourne Cup 2023

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  • #1663594
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    • Total Posts 6107

    Weights out

    https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2023-rv/the-sport/2023-09-19-lexus-melbourne-cup-weights-elimination-order

    Tower of London @ 22.0

    Got the look of a Rekindling about him who also finished 4th in the Leger and would not be the biggest surprise in the world if he could improve a fair bit from that run especially on faster ground.

    The way things have worked out it looks like he may of been aimed at this for a while, it would be good to see him down the travel agents booking his flight like. :unsure:

    #1663605
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 7547

    Vauban 10-1 ew

    #1663713
    Helcatmudwrestler
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    • Total Posts 352

    Ryan Moore gets on Mr Waterville at Rosehill this weekend , roughie for Cup and got to run his way into race via win penalties or ballot exempt wins but ran well behind Just Fine over mile first up in OZ and Just Fine one of the red hot horses in OZ at moment .

    #1663859
    Tizaaards Cider
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    • Total Posts 639

    Vauban 25000/1. Win only.

    I had a feeling back in 99 watching Montjeu win the arc that he would go on to produce a live Melbourne cup contender one day!

    Just a shame I only had an old paper £20 note on me that day I walked into the smoke filled office of Stanley Racing near the bus station in Doncaster town centre to place the bet!

    #1665404
    Helcatmudwrestler
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    • Total Posts 352

    According to media , Vauban and Adsurde both arrived in good order and have had a quiet spin around Werribee training track .
    Vauban just needs to stay injury free , at this stage imho its looking like weak field , Mullins will never have a better chance .
    Ive got Emissary each way at 51s and 13s for small stake , ran second last year , ran nice race second up , no weight . 36th in order entry but some real deadwood above not going to pay up next stage . He is in weekend so rolled dice as he runs well again he will come right im .
    Turnball and Bart Cummings both at Flemington Saturday will really give Spring a good sort out.

    #1665443
    Tizaaards Cider
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    • Total Posts 639

    I’ve had a good chunk on Vauban already at 9/2 and if he’s the same price come raceday then I’ll have another throw at it as well.

    He just wins doesn’t he. One of the times when, imho, people are looking too hard to get the fav beat for the sake of looking clever.

    #1665450
    Landafar
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    • Total Posts 612

    TC, the draw would worry me AP. Given a decent draw, 9/2 would be a great price.

    #1665473
    Tizaaards Cider
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    • Total Posts 639

    A draw bias over 2m? Not sure about that pal.

    I haven’t checked the stats for it admittedly. And don’t feel I need to. It’s probably stupid of me but I haven’t spent a huge amount of time looking at the opposition either.

    Vauban is head and shoulders above this lot and has been allocated a penalty kick in terms of weight imo.

    It might sound churlish to say the above given my comment of not knowing much about the opposition but none of them would be thinking of coming over for ascot. Let alone coming over and scooting home in the triumph or ever running state man to 5l!

    #1665476
    Landafar
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    • Total Posts 612

    Fair comments TC, good luck with the AP, If Vauban has a draw below 12 and above 5, Ill be on.
    Traffic can be a problem with a very low draw, very high draw, well one gets a clear run or just need to be ridden to hit the line in front without burning speed early.

    #1665507
    Avatar photoIanDavies
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 12999

    I love Vauban, he did me a right good turn at Royal Ascot.

    BUT….while I don’t follow Australian racing anywhere near as closely as I follow, say, USA racing, there appear to be various talented home runners on relatively low marks to me.

    As ever, in a country most famous for its world-class sprinters that bizarrely “stops the nation” with a 2m handicap, there are among them more probable non-stayers than after the first minute at Chezza’s last after-dinner speech, but I don’t think it’s quite a “penalty kick” (1/3 statistically?) for Vauban.

    Btw, there are many longer Flat races in which there is a pronounced draw bias.

    I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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    #1665606
    Landafar
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    • Total Posts 612

    ”Btw, there are many longer Flat races in which there is a pronounced draw bias”
    At Newmarket?

    #1665619
    Tizaaards Cider
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    • Total Posts 639

    I’m not for one minute suggesting there are not good and bad draws over 2m+ flat races. But a half decent jockey should be able to negate any problems he might run into over longer distances.

    And if I’m not mistaken his flat wins have been from the front and back so he doesn’t seem hostage to any certain tactics.

    I’m back at work tomorrow and may spend an hour looking through the others in more detail but to me it’s Vauban’s race to lose if he turns up on the day in the best possible shape.

    #1665627
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    • Total Posts 12999

    My knowledge of Australia is largely based on watching “Skippy The Bush Kangaroo” as a child, so I’ve little more to add tbh.

    I didn’t actually like Skippy much, but the episode entitled: “Skippy gets drawn out in the car park in the Melbourne Cup and finishes tailed off” – if a somewhat verbose title – was definitely one of my favourites.

    I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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    #1667353
    Helcatmudwrestler
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    • Total Posts 352

    Scriptwriter has entry in Geelong Cup Wednesday , he has had a name change and is now More Felons. I think he will need to win and get a penalty to get in .

    #1667371
    Avatar photosporting sam
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    • Total Posts 16518

    The draw in the Melbourne cup over two miles is as important as the draw in the stewards cup over the shorter distance.
    That combined with the weights all have an influence majorly on the outcome of the race.
    Saying Vauban will sweep all before him ala vintage crop ( and not knowing yet the draw, the opposition, the going )at this stage is mildly amusing.
    I hope he does win for Ireland but there is a long road to go and all the other horses to consider.

    #1667372
    Avatar photosporting sam
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    • Total Posts 16518

    “I didn’t actually like Skippy much, but the episode entitled: “Skippy gets drawn out in the car park in the Melbourne Cup and finishes tailed off” – if a somewhat verbose title – was definitely one of my favourites.”

    Sir it is rather remiss of you not to have watched bush tucker trial and crocodile Dundee goes to Royal ascot for then you’d have had the key to the universe.

    #1667746
    Tizaaards Cider
    Participant
    • Total Posts 639

    What’s mildly amusing about what I said Sam?

    The ground isn’t going to pose an issue for him. He’s tactically versatile to sit where he wants so the draw isn’t really going to be a problem. It certainly won’t be the draw that beats him.

    And of the opposition guaranteed to get a run, there isn’t anything that could lace his hooves!

    Barring accidents he’s a racing certainty!

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