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  • #1826
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Some years ago in Raceform there was an article detailing the best two systems that had ever been published in the Sporting Chron Hcap Book. I thought I might try one for those having difficulty arriving at shortlists with all the talent on display at the Festival. Basically it is the top 20 trainers from this season’s list by number of winners tempered by prize money won. The down side is the lack of Irish trainers on the list, which could be a problem (I may have to produce an Irish list too for comparison, methinks).

    ONE WEEK ONLY SO HIT IT WHILST IT’S HOT

    Trainers list<br>20 P Nicholls<br>19 A King<br>18 N Henderson<br>17 D Pipe<br>16 Jonjo O’Neill<br>15 P Hobbs<br>14 Ven Williams<br>13 P Bowen<br>12  N Richards<br>11 N Twiston-Davies<br>10 Evan Williams<br>9 JJ Quinn<br>8 J Howard Johnson<br>7 Sue Smith<br>6 Ms EC Lavelle<br>5 H Daly<br>4 GL Moore<br>3 B Powell<br>2 Ferdy Murphy<br>1 Hen Knight

    Also add points to the total for LTO result this season – Win =10, 2nd = 7, 3rd = 6, 4th = 3

    Just for practise today at Plumpton.

    2.00 Netherley 24 (8/13 won) , Giveusaclue 23, Just Silver 7<br>2.30 The Hardy Boy 7(Evens 2nd) , Danse Macabre 6<br>3.00 Enlightenment 13 (5/4 won) , Mon Michel 11 (8/11 2nd)<br>3.30 Wenger 10 (6/5 2nd) , Ballyrainey 7 (3/1 won) , Native Commander 4<br>4.00 Hi Dancer 7 (1/5 won)<br>4.30 Mooresini 7 (2/1 2nd)<br>5.00 Lescer’s Lad 7 (non-runner) , Ted Moss 3

    Just a bit of fun lads!<br>

    (Edited by Formath at 6:33 pm on Mar. 12, 2007)

    #62738
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Here’s the Oirish list, ‘Begorrah!’

    20 W Mullins<br>19 N Meade<br>18 T Taaffe<br>17 Mrs J Harrington<br>16 Eoin Griffin<br>15 MJ O’Brien<br>14 D Hughes<br>13 R Tyner<br>12 C Swan<br>11 Martin Brassil<br>10 C Byrnes<br>9 Paul Nolan<br>8 C Murphy<br>7 C Roche<br>6 M Hourigan<br>5 E Sheehy<br>4 E O’Grady<br>3 AL Moore<br>2 D Fitzgerald<br>1 E McNamara

    #62741
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I remember this system Alan, it was revitalised a few years ago by a tipster who lived in West Yorkshire. I never followed it through the flat season like I should have done .. does the system tell you to revise the trainer ratings every week ??

    #62743
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Dave,<br>In the dim and distant past when information was not so readily available you compiled your list to follow throughout the next season from the final list of the previous season.<br>Then it was select the principal meeting of the day.<br>Stake 1 point to win on the top rated down the card.<br>Stop-at-a-win<br>Splitting any rated equal was by taking the one with the least time off track.<br>(If anyone wants a copy I may be able to find the original cutting from SCHB and scan, can’t promise though).

    Finally, I have used percentage of winners to prize money won and not races won in my modified version.

    (Edited by Formath at 6:00 pm on Mar. 12, 2007)

    #62745
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Cheltenham Mar 13

    The Irish alternatives are shown in green

    2.00 Granit Jack 30 (15/2 2nd) , Amaretto Rose 28 (2/1 3rd) , Kicks For Free 26<br>2.00 Ebaziyan 30 (40/1 won) , Orbit O’Gold 29, De Valira 22

    2.35 My Way De Solzen 29 (7/2 won) , Jack The Giant 28 (14/1 3rd) , Buena Vista 27<br>2.35 Gemini Lucy 24, Vintage Treasure 10

    3.15 Afsoun 25 (28/1 3rd) , Detroit City 25, Straw Bear 10<br>3.15 Hardy Eustace 26, Iktitaf 19, Sublimity 10 (16/1 won)

    4.00 Juveigneur 28 (7/1 2nd) , Little Brick 27, Heez A Dreamer 24

    4.40 L’Aventure 27, Royal Auclair 26, Le Duc 23 (8/1 3rd)4.40 Heads Onthe Ground 10 (5/2 won) , Spot The Difference 10 (6/1 4th) , Never Compromise 7

    5.20 Pouvoir 29, Gaspara 27 (9/2 won) , Laustra Bad 27 (16/1 3rd)5.20 Jayo 20, Deputy Consort 15, Belord 11

    <br>

    (Edited by Formath at 7:07 pm on Mar. 13, 2007)

    #62746
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    :biggrin: :cool:

    #62748
    Have fun
    Member
    • Total Posts 128

    You make it look so easy :) <br>well done

    #62750
    PompetePompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    Alan – You are ‘The Master’  ;)  

    #62751
    class tells
    Member
    • Total Posts 207

    formath will you please go through how you arrive at your lists step by step this will be a great addition to my vdw grid are there anything on percentages with top three rated

    #62752
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    A glance at the Trainers tables in the Racing Post will tell you the story of following this type of system.

         2006/07             <br> <br>Trainer Season Statistics – British jumps<br> 2006/2007  WINS-RUNS 2nd 3rd 4th  WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE,  Profit or loss to a £1 STAKE <br> <br>     <br>P F Nicholls  98-411 (24%) 85 59 34 1,426,688 2,028,459 -93.90 <br>D E Pipe  114-592 (19%) 67 57 59 948,995 1,313,980 -138.56 <br>Jonjo O´Neill  110-724 (15%) 100 89 64 794,660 1,180,922 -197.07 <br>A King  73-335 (22%) 61 37 32 806,059 1,067,089 +43.10 <br>P J Hobbs  89-472 (19%) 70 47 52 725,384 1,110,377 -105.38 <br>Miss Venetia Williams  69-346 (20%) 47 39 42 515,665 792,689 +47.76 <br>N J Henderson  63-239 (26%) 37 29 21 422,569 775,807 +19.94 <br>P Bowen  60-289 (21%) 35 37 25 409,313 572,247 +16.70 <br>Evan Williams  59-442 (13%) 43 51 35 417,116 547,249 -87.08 <br>N G Richards  54-265 (20%) 50 33 22 316,141 488,543 -78.95 <br>N A Twiston-Davies  54-363 (15%) 37 31 37 283,927 489,365 -74.58 <br>Ferdy Murphy  45-365 (12%) 56 33 28 274,744 467,651 -61.55 <br>J Howard Johnson  43-323 (13%) 39 36 36 250,713 460,526 -169.22 <br>G L Moore  31-339 (9%) 44 58 39 235,239 426,950 -81.55 <br>Mrs S J Smith  46-365 (13%) 40 47 34 231,177 393,025 -53.07 <br>H D Daly  25-195 (13%) 32 27 18 227,225 336,726 -63.62 <br>Miss H C Knight  27-216 (13%) 27 21 24 222,616 313,243 -75.54 <br>J J Quinn  28-125 (22%) 28 16 14 201,146 295,070 +22.57 <br>Miss E C Lavelle  22-148 (15%) 15 19 14 215,703 271,738 +3.89

    As you can see, the losses are substantial. Adding points for LTO might help because it highlights those horses that are in form- with the usual health warnings about using LTO figures – how long ago?, class of race?<br>strength of form?

    Nearly all of these old systems from the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book have some merit, but they have all been tried and have failed over a long period.<br>Yes, they are fun and will have their golden days, but for those who want to make money from punting, they should be avoided.

    I feel like a bit of a killjoy, but I’m keen to go forward rather than look back at systems that have been found wanting in the past.  

    #62754
    class tells
    Member
    • Total Posts 207

    i will not be use the system on its own but as part of a selection method it shows up COPSALE LAD today in the 4.00

    #62755
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Cheltenham Mar 14

    The Irish alternatives are shown in green.

    2.00 Silverburn 30, Duc De Regniere 28, Imperial Commander 21<br>2.00 Scotsirish 30, Aran Concerto 29, Foligold 23

    2.35 Turko 30,  Denman 30 (6/5 won) , Dom D’Orgeval 27<br>2.35 Ungaro (error: this should be Snowy Morning) 30 (10/1 2nd) , Gazza’s Girl 24, Cailin Alainn 10

    3.15 Well Chief 27, Voy Por Ustedes 19 (5/1 won) , Dempsey 10 (20/1 2nd)<br>3.15 Justified 12, Newmill 10, Sybellius D’Artex 7

    4.00 Copsale lad 28, Rayshan 19, All Star 18<br>4.00 Emotional Moment 24, Mister Hight 20, Finger Onthe Pulse 18

    4.40 Alright Nw M’Lad 26, It Takes Time 21, Maletton 21<br>4.40 Oodachee 18, Ponmeoath 11

    5.20 Fiddling Again 28, Le Beau Bai 27, Choumakeur 27<br>5.20 Cooldine 30, Fiveforthree 30, Mad Fish 27, Cork All Star 27 (11/2 won)

    Looking on the bright side, when they don’t go in it saves on the editing.

    (Edited by Formath at 7:10 pm on Mar. 14, 2007)

    #62756
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Good luck today Alan .. I’d picked Copsdale Lad before I saw this .. fingerscrossed eh ??

    Artemis, you are right what you are saying there, but I would disagree with you in some sense because punters generally underestimate what part luck plays in everything. Systems like this one will lose over a period of time and they will also win, the problem being the losing time will always be longer than the winning one. I am coming more and more to thinking that losing cycles and profitable ones work in years rather than months. This is maybe because punters are more likely to bet on various statistical factors as they come in and out of fashion. So, I dont think it’s cut and dried that you will always lose.

    #62757
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I’ve also included Copsale Lad. I think we might have scuppered his chances.

    I think you are right about luck, Dave. It plays a big part in any sport, but it probably evens itself out over a long period. Whenever I talk about betting strategies, I’m always careful to state what is likely to happen in the long run. How long is this? Probably a few years of a daily nap – about 750 bets: much less time if you are selecting in every race. I would say that any method that is profitable after 750 bets is worthy of being called a winning system.

    We know that punters as a whole lose about 15 per cent of their stakes in the long run, but there are some who manage a profit. I would be quite surprised if any of these long term winners were following any system that relied on favs, trainers, course winners, newspaper tips or a simple set of rules. They are either buying their information from an expert or they are analysing form in depth. Paying for information is very uncertain as many have learnt to their considerable expense. That leaves knowledge of the form book, something that is extremely time consuming and only worth the effort if you are going to bet professionally. Even then, you could still lose…..  

    #62758
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Very true Artemis .. I think the 750 bets rule is about right. Thats why a lot of punters think there onto something only to see it all fall apart after 100 bets or so. There are ways of testing winning systems out (Chi-test) but then they skewed by big priced winners, so the 750 bets rule is a good one. Having your own database and way of checking out systems is a good more, IMO.

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