February 24, 2007 at 14:06 #1824
I am starting this thread in honour of ‘charv’ from the Research board as he seem to be where I was about 40 years ago lol. The claim under the title (not mine by the way) failed to live up to its claim in the end. The system used to throw up a fair percentage of winners at short odds.
MASTER KEY<br>The ultimate in racing perfection
1.Take the principal meeting.<br>2.Consider the non-handicap races.<br>3.Note the selections of Spotlight, RPR and Postdata of the Racing Post<br>4.The first race to qualify is that where at least two of the correspondents select the same horse. The horse does not qualify at odds lower than 1-2 on.<br>5.Work down the card and adopt the same procedure for any other non-handicap races. <br>6.If more than 2 horses qualify under the rules bets will be in the 2 races with the least number of runners. If still more than 2 qualifiers take the 2 at the shortest forecast odds. <br>7.If there are no selections at the principal meeting take the next one having the race with the highest prize money and so on.
There was a retrieve staking plan advised with the original system (aim to win 2pts on each bet and recover losses) but I have ditched that in favour of the VDW staking plan below, with the exception that any odds-on winners bet will be carried forward to the next bet as the first leg of a double. This is to meet the overall requirement of not betting below Evens. The starting bank to limit liability will be 120 points, allowing for an initial losing run of 15 bets.
Here is the staking plan as published in the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book sports forum, March 23, 1978, except that the requirement to recover tax has been omitted: <br>"Readers may be interested in the method I have used for over 40 years which basically aims to ensure one point profit from each bet": <br>Stke_Res__Won_Lost_Aim_Debit Due_Credit <br>1___ Lost_______1___+1____2 <br>2___ Lost_______2___+1____5 <br>3___ Lost_______3___+1____9 <br>4___ 2-1W_8 pts_____+1____2 <br>3___ Lost_______3___+1____6 <br>4___ Lost_______4___+1____11 <br>5___3-1W_15 pts_____+1____0_____10 points
"Stakes are increased by 1 point each bet until the debit (due) is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed debit by more than 1 point (The point added is the profit wanted)."
(if anyone would like a copy scanned from my dog-eared, coffee-stained, hard-copy of the original system I could scan it and transfer it for them).<br>
(Edited by Formath at 2:10 pm on Feb. 24, 2007)February 24, 2007 at 14:09 #62685
Kempton<br>3.45 Parrain (11/10 lost) – Stake 1 point lost , due 2, bank 119<br>5.15 Evelith Echo (7/2 won) – Stake 2 points won, due 0, bank 126
(Edited by Formath at 12:03 pm on Feb. 25, 2007)February 25, 2007 at 12:05 #62686
Exeter<br>2.20 Mark The Book – (4/7 won), stake 1 point +.57, so 1.57 carried forward to next bet)
4.20 Glasker Mill Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â (6/5 lost) – stake 1.5 lost, due 2, bank 125.7
(Edited by Formath at 4:34 pm on Feb. 25, 2007)February 25, 2007 at 12:48 #62687dave jayMember
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I’d like a copy of the system Formath .. I collect such things, sad as I am .. :biggrin:
This all takes me back a while. Great to have someone posting who knows their stuff !!February 25, 2007 at 15:18 #62688davidbradyMember
- Total Posts 3901
An interesting approach using very publicly available information. I would be interested in the breakdown of the results for this analsyed between which 2 of Spotlight, TS, & RPR were used. In one of his books, Nick Mordin mentions that he reckons Spotlight’s tips are vastly overbet because they are probably the most read tip for virtually every race. He recommended backing those horses where both RPR and TS agreed but Spotlight tipped a different horse so I would be interested to see if that particular method outperformed the other 2.February 25, 2007 at 19:03 #62689ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
The trouble with this type of system is that the selections are usually overbet. You are going to be backing a lot of very short priced favourites at SP, which is harder to make pay than it was a few months ago…. and it was very tough then!
IMO, any system that comes up with horses to back without taking any account of the prevailing odds is, I’m afraid to say, almost certainly doomed to failure in the long run. I must have seen dozens of these over the years and they all go the same way.
If you look at the records of RPR ratings, Postdata, and Spotlight, they all lose to level stakes over the season taking account of every race. If you are selective and exclude handicaps, there is some improvement, but it’s still a loss.
It’s interesting to track this type of system because it can do reasonably well in the short term, but I would be very surprised if it made a profit after six months.February 26, 2007 at 12:39 #62690
Hereford<br>3.40 Officier De Reserve (1/3 won) – no bet at odds shorter than 1/2 on<br>4.40 Fanmail (11/8 lost) – stake 2pts lost, due 5, bank 123.7
(Edited by Formath at 6:38 pm on Feb. 26, 2007)February 27, 2007 at 11:40 #62691
Leicester<br>2.20 Spidam (1/2 lost) – Stake 3 points lost, due 9, bank 120.73.50 <br>Espirit Saint (4/5 lost) – Stke 4pts lost, due 14, 116.7[/color
(Edited by Formath at 4:53 pm on Feb. 27, 2007)February 28, 2007 at 11:33 #62692
Folkestone<br>1.40 Corker (4/1 3rd lost) – stake 5pts lost, due 20, bank 111.7<br>4.25 To The Top (6/4 3rd lost) – stake 6pts lost, due 27, bank105.7
(Edited by Formath at 6:17 pm on Feb. 28, 2007)March 1, 2007 at 12:09 #62693
Hurrah! For the only bright spot in a dull day.
Ludlow<br> 2.40 Petite Margot (5/6 won) – Stake 7pts +5.83 = 12.83 carried forward to next bet.<br>4.40 Foly Pleasant (5/2 won) – stake 12pts + 30 = 42 – 7pts first stake = +35pts, due 0, bank 141.53
(Edited by Formath at 6:07 pm on Mar. 1, 2007)March 1, 2007 at 21:15 #62694dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
A good price was had by all on Foly Pleasant .. I was really suprised, thought it was an odds on shot myself.March 2, 2007 at 12:58 #62695
Newbury<br>2.30 Money Order (4/5 won) – Stake 1pt +.8 = 1.8 carried forward to next bet<br>4.50 Spring Grove (15/8 2nd lost) – stake 2 pts lost, due 2, bank 140.33
(Edited by Formath at 5:18 pm on Mar. 2, 2007)March 3, 2007 at 11:31 #62696
Newbury<br>1.35 La Dame Brune (6/5 lost) – Stake 2pts lost, due 5, bank 138.33<br>4.55 Procas De Thaix (15/8 lost) – Stake 3pts lost, due 9, bank 135.33
(Edited by Formath at 5:14 pm on Mar. 3, 2007)March 4, 2007 at 12:22 #62697
Bangor<br>3.20 Classic Fiddle (3/10 won) – shorter than 1/2 no bet<br>5.20 No Retreat (5/6 lost) stake 4pts lost, due 14, bank 131.33
(Edited by Formath at 6:36 pm on Mar. 4, 2007)March 5, 2007 at 12:15 #62698
2.50 Strike Force (2/1 won) – stake 5pts = +10, due 5, bank 141.33<br>3.20 Blue Sky Thinking (7/4 lost) – stake 6pts, due 12, bank 135.33
(Edited by Formath at 4:08 pm on Mar. 5, 2007)
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