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Looking at the yesterday’s rail movements at Market Rasen, and the winning time return for the 2m3f34y(C) (6.45), it is the stuff of nightmares.
Race 3: +180yds – Time 4m 46.30s (slow by 1.30s), I already knew that the standard time is at least 15.0s out.
When was the last time Market Rasen ran to the recent BHA re-measured distances?
Yesterday’s rail movements…
Rails: Wood bend is out 18yds. Stands bends is out 22yds Hurdle & 24yds Chase.
Adding approximately…Race 1: +174yds
Race 2: +240yds
Race 3: +180yds
Race 4: +252yds
Race 5: +240yds
Race 6: +174ydsWhat really bothers me is the Racing Posts winning times data is now so corrupt with the excessive rail movements, I am surprise that this hasn’t been flagged up by the racing professionals at the Post.
My next project is to go back to basics, and rebuild the standard times at Market Rasen using a combination of the best ten times for each distance using my 30th percentile method, and then build a linear regression equation to calculate the slope (time per furlong) and the constant (course configuration)for both the hurdles and chase courses.
Food for thought.
Mike.
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