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Honeysuckle is clearly not as good as she was but she was still good enough to run well behind State Man. I am not convinced Brandy Love would have finished closer to him.
The worry with Honeysuckle is that she is now regressive and every run will be worse than the previous one.
I’ve got a bit on her for this, but I’m not confident.
The progressive one usually beats the regressive one in this game.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"That was a nice prep for QB and BL. The Mullins mare seemed to be messing about at the start a bit and pulled for part of the way, so a race under her belt and a stronger pace should help her- mind you a bit more pace would help QB as well I would think. Neither was given a hard race and both should be spot on fitness-wise for the big day. Brandy’s hurdling needs to improve but I don’t think the stable school them hard at home before reappearance so that aspect should improve for the run. I still think Queen’s Brook will beat her at Cheltenham.
Honeysuckle has run to low 150s this season
That won’t be enough to beat Marie’s rock and likely Brandy either
Maries rock should run here hopefully and is the one to beat
Then hopefully be a half decent price over 3 miles at Aintree 4 weeks later
“Honeysuckle has run to low 150s this season”
She’s a low 160s horse so has a few lbs to play with in her attempt against same sex horses over 2 and a half.
“I would not even be 100% confident of her turning it around with Queens Brook.”
Needing the run today and getting the 9lb back and going back left handed next time there’s a very likely chance i would say.
“The progressive one usually beats the regressive one in this game.”
Honeysuckle has only regressed in a similar way to what Shishkin had before his Ascot run. Low 160s to a peak of 165 isn’t that alarming. It’s the distance that brings some others into it as we don’t know for sure if she can run to that level over the trip.
“Honeysuckle has only regressed in a similar way to what Shishkin had before his Ascot run. Low 160s to a peak of 165 isn’t that alarming. It’s the distance that brings some others into it as we don’t know for sure if she can run to that level over the trip.”
She hacked up in the Solerina, the Dawn Run and the G1 final at Fairyhouse as a novice, won the Hatton’s Grace twice and beat the odds on Benie in this race. And her sire’s next highest rated progeny won the Grand National. She gets the trip, possibly even needs it now. I would still worry that something else might be sharper on the day.
Honeysuckle isn’t running to low 160s she’s running to low 150s this season
She ran to about 153/154 in the hattons grace and similar in the Irish champion hurdle
Might be enough to win but if something else improves it won’t be
She bounces back to herself she will win but I’m not sure how likely that is
“She ran to about 153/154 in the hattons grace and similar in the Irish champion hurdle”
How is this possible? She was about 5 lengths behind State Man who is 167 and ahead of Vauban who is 160. She ran to 165 when she won the Champion Hurdle.
“Needing the run today and getting the 9lb back and going back left handed next time there’s a very likely chance i would say.”
I grant you she gets the weight pull but the rest is supposition.
It is a game of opinions but for what it is worth I have Brandy Love as the least likely winner of this race from those at the head of the market. I am just not convinced by her.
“How is this possible? She was about 5 lengths behind State Man who is 167 and ahead of Vauban who is 160. She ran to 165 when she won the Champion Hurdle.”
She was 5 behind state man getting 7lb who won very easily so value for a little more than the margin so about 154/153 is about right
Just ahead of vauban who is 160 getting 7lb, who given the proximity of pied piper likely didn’t run to 160
So 153/154 at best
Way down on her peak 2 years ago and going south
Could she have a better run left in her, of course, but I won’t be taking the short odds myself
Willie Mullins on BRANDY LOVE:
“Paul and I are very happy that she will come on a lot for this.
“I think she has improved from last year, and I think we have enough time between now and Cheltenham to have her ready.
“I grant you she gets the weight pull but the rest is supposition.”
Her needing to go left handed isn’t supposition
It’s a definite thing
Epatante and Honeysuckle are still comfortable ahead of anything else in here , were talking about ex champion hurdle winners here and 1st and 2nd last year , put any of these in a champion ….. They,d get lapped
If Marie’s Rock goes here, she’s my idea of the winner. Honeysuckle is in decline and Epatante isn’t getting any younger either, and I’m not convinced a truly run 2 1/2 miles is what she wants despite her Aintree success.
“Epatante and Honeysuckle are still comfortable ahead of anything else in here , were talking about ex champion hurdle winners here and 1st and 2nd last year , put any of these in a champion ….. They,d get lapped”
Part of me agrees with the first part, but then i come back to the fact the Champion has been probably below par in recent years. Honey is a great champion and Epatante is some mare too. It’s possible they are on the downgrade but just by a little? As the 2m contenders for the CH are getting better with State Man and Constitution Hill? That would mean to me they are probably still ahead of most of these- maybe Marie’s Rock aside.
However, i’d have liked to see how Echoes In Rain would’ve finished in the Hatton’s Grace- she might’ve finished close to Honey that day.The other side of the coin is neither have come back the same mares this year- it’s possible. Honey is already dropped from 165 to 160 in one run- her RPRs are nothing much better than that of the other mares and they might just be on the downgrade. The likes of Brandy Love, Love Envoi and Marie’s Rock all seem to be on upward curves and the gap might be lessoning.
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