- This topic has 22 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
A cracking race in prospect here, withe the 2nd and somewhat unlucky 4th from the Arkle turning up.
Somersby is the form choice, and the step up to 2m 4f should be in his favour. He stayed on up the hill to good effect in the Arkle and he should be very difficult to beat. However, he was beaten at Aintree last year after a good run at Cheltenham, but Riverside Theatre was behind him so the form isn’t too bad. He’s hardly put a foot wrong this season and will take all the beating.
Mad Max ran a very credible 4th in the Arkle and a return to a flatter track and 2m 4f should be more to his liking. He ploughed the second last at Cheltenham and would have been closer but for that error. As it is he has 4 1/2 lengths to make up on Somersby. There wouldn’t have been much between them but for that mistake.
The Nightingale is the unknown quantity in the race. He’s bound to be a popular selection being from the Nicholls-Walsh axis. The form of his win over Othermix looks very good s Othermix ran a cracker behind Copper Bleu at Cheltenham. I very much doubt Othermix was at his best that day however, because I couldn’t have invisioned The Nightingale a further 18 lengths upo the run-in. What he does have in his favour is he has been targeted specifically at Aintree, whereas others had Cheltenham engagements. What would worry me is he never looked top class over hurdles. Twice put in Graded company over timber, he was beaten 8 lengths by Mad Max and 19 by Mikael D’Haguenet.
Hey Big Spender couldn’t be completely ruled out given he won a Cheltenham handicap easily off 138, but he needs to step up a level, as does Othermix. Gansey and The Jazz Musician look to be outclassed.
Here are the forecast SPs from irishracing.com: Probable SP 7/4 Somersby, 11/4 The Nightingale, 3/1 Mad Max, 8/1 Hey Big Spender, 10/1 Othermix, 25/1 Gansey, 33/1 The Jazz Musician.
I feel The Nightingale is priced shorter than Mad Max here based on the fact he’s unexposed and there’s always the chance he could win by lengths, never been extended over fences etc. Can’t have him myself. Between Somersby and Mad Max for me, and @ 7/4 Somersby would be overpriced. I’d price the 3 of them: Somersby 5/4, Mad Max 5/2, The Nightingale 4/1.
I like Othermix; as some posters are probably aware of I’ve been harping on about this horse since he arrived at these shores, excellent form in France and might be getting it together here (finally). He was massively overpriced at Cheltenham (50/1) where he was a good second, and 25/1 here looks big again. Although a lot to find, he’s my pick.
Mad Max is a cracking price, who’s to say he wouldn’t have won at Cheltenham had he not made that horrific blunder two out. If Barry Gerathy can steal a couple of lengths turning in, I don’t know if Somersby will catch him, long and all as the straight at Aintree is. The Nightingale is too short imo.
The Nightingale
pour moi, 5/2 ain’t great but it’s ok.
Mad Max was running a fine, fine race in The Arkle (Sizing had his measure and then some though) but he’s a big brute of a horse who may not be ideally suited to such a sharp track. He’ll also be up there and become a target.
Somersby ran ok in the Arkle, was never threatening, and I think TN will have more speed; not sure he was ever really on his game over hurdles but always highly regarded he looks a major player over fences.
Yes,a very good review for what promises to be a cracking contest.
Not a lot to say that hasn’t already been said so I go for The Nightingale to bring home the bacon.
Progressive,improving and fresh I can see him winning with something in hand.
Cheltenham will have taken a lot out of many of these,the form is not to be relied on,something many of us will have learned to our cost over the years.
This is the race of the day for me,a real gem.
- Total Posts 17716
Mad Max for me.
Somersby ran a blinder in the Arkle, and I remain convinced he’d have gone closer given a more positive ride, but that was Cheltenham in a strongly run race.
Not sure we’ll get the same pace tomorrow, and MM had the legs of Somersby for much of that race. No surprise to see him do so again tomorrow, and 5/1 is just too big.
For my money, The Nightingale has shown nothing like the class to win this, and Mad Max has already trounced him previously, albeit in a bumper.Excellent work thm,i too think Mad Max is going places,but i can see the extra half mile suiting
Somersby
down to the ground,i just hope the race doesn"t come too soon for him as Hen reckons he takes a lot out of himself during his races! I shall be happy to be a spectator only,with a view to an Ante-Post wager for the King George to start with!
Got to be Somersby for me, cannot help but think that he’d still be infront of Mad Max even has he not made the mistake.
I think this is a really interesting race!!
Do we go in the Mad max would have finished second but for the error
Or do we go by the form in the book which means Mad max cant beat Somersby without improving
Or do we go for the fresher The Nightingale who beat Othermix easy before Othermix ran well at Cheltenham
Or do we go for Hey Big Spender which was going okay before falling at CheltenhamI personally think Mad Max will beat Somersby but may struggle to hold off the challenge of The Nightingale.
The rest are not up to this standard IMOBeing a huge fan of the Tizzard’s and having been at Taunton when he won last time out I can’t ignore The Jazz Musician.
I know,I know,I know.
He’s not a 60/1 shot though,he’s better than that.Really nice race this.
I’m opting for The Nightingale. He’s shown me enough to suggest he’s worth a chance in this and this is the perfect distance for him.
Somersby, for all that he should win this at the distance, may be having this race too soon for my liking.
Right, Mad Max it is for me. 11/2 is a simply massive price. I have a feeling Somersby would have finished ahead of him in the Arkle regardless of the mistake. However, I don’t think Mad Max is really at home at Cheltenham and Aintree should suit him better.
Somersby is the one he has to beat but given his slightly below par effort here last year he could be worth taking on with this fella. Think it’s between the two of them, can’t have The Nightingale on my mind especially at 5/2. What he’s actually achieved is very little but obviously he has potential to be a very good cheaser. The other two have the form in the book.
A cracking renewal in prospect.
It really is hard to see beyond Somersby in this. He ran a fine race at Cheltenham and should still be fresh as a daisy, considering he has not had a hard season thus far.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Right, Mad Max it is for me. 11/2 is a simply massive price. I have a feeling Somersby would have finished ahead of him in the Arkle regardless of the mistake. However, I don’t think Mad Max is really at home at Cheltenham and Aintree should suit him better.
Word perfect young man!I too had my reservations today about Somersby and i am even less convinced he will get 31/4m after today,his jumping was quite "iffy" at times and Mad Max beat him fair and square,i know Choc thinks differently!
As soon as they set off I thought Barry was doing the right thing being very positive. He was always going to be hard to peg back. I think Cheltenham suits Somersby much better though and he never really looked at home today. Choc saiys to put a line through the run and I be inclined to agree with him. Mad Max looks the ideal type to come back with next year for the Melling Chase! Today I learned the value of one of the things you are always preaching TAPK: stay loyal to horses!
Why thank you!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.