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If i’d have seen 11/8, i’d have said that was about the right price. But it was never entitled to have been 4/5 on what it had done. Which brings me nicely back to the 1lb per length scale …<br>It is indeed rated too highly from tomorrow. It won it’s last race by 19l. So? That may as well be five lengths for all the good it is in evaluating it’s rating. In fact, a 5l win has more merit in that the second placed horse is trying harder to bridge the gap.<br>It was entitled to win, but was never a 4/5 shot in that company IMO.
"In fact, a 5l win has more merit in that the second placed horse is trying harder to bridge the gap."
Bless your cotton socks RD, but you do talk utter tosh sometimes.<br>
" In fact, a 5l win has more merit in that the second placed horse is trying harder to bridge the gap. "
Not sure about the logic of that RD. Wide margin winners are IMO very hard to rate and was highlighted in the Hennessey analysis thread as I felt, without logic, that State Of Play had been over-rated for his wide margin success. Not the case as it turned out.
Quote: from rory on 3:11 pm on Dec. 8, 2006[br]"In fact, a 5l win has more merit in that the second placed horse is trying harder to bridge the gap."
Bless your cotton socks RD, but you do talk utter tosh sometimes.
LOL<br>You have a way with words rory ;)
Its easy to be wise after the race but I think this case highlights the problem with traditional weight handicapping. My own stats based ratings had this as a typical close handicap and the old adage about not betting odds-on in a handicap came good again. A no bet race for me.
The horse broke a blood vessel so we’ll never know how well in he was. Personally I don’t think 13 days is too long for a new rating to be implemented as it can always be too short a break between races, so there’s always a risk. I agree, no penalty for an apprentice or conditional race is barmy if they’re going to go up the ratings anyway. I put that point to the chief handicapper last week and he said it was to encourage people to run in app. and con. races, which makes no sense to me.
…I think this case highlights the problem with traditional weight handicapping.
Nothing of the sort, IMO.
I did the sums, had Manhattan Boy well clear and….
…laid him at the odds.
"Traditional weight handicapping" involves more than just identifying which horse is best in and backing it regardless.
Quote: from Prufrock on 6:12 pm on Dec. 8, 2006[br]I did the sums, had Manhattan Boy well clear and….
Not my strong point maths, but i got 151, however i just could not take the A beat B by X stuff literally, when the 2nd and 3rd (best form on better ground) were having their seasonal bows, the 4th’s best performance on heavy was giving Orignal Fly a 6.5 length beating in a maiden and the 5th’s form is on better ground
(Edited by empty wallet at 7:30 pm on Dec. 8, 2006)
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