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Manhattan Boy

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  • #529
    apracing
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    • Total Posts 3105

    <br>Manhattan Boy won a 2M c’j handicap hurdle at Newbury last Sunday week by 19L off a mark of 109.

    He’s running in a £20k handicap at Cheltenham tomorrow and he’s still off 109. That’s because his new handicap mark doesn’t take effect until Saturday and his win doesn’t earn him a penalty.

    The handicapper has re-assessed him on 134 – to put that in perspective, he carries 10st precisely tomorrow, but he should have 11st 11lbs.

    Whilst this provides another opportunity to back a ‘good thing’ at short odds for those who enjoyed Star De Mohaison last month (any guess at his SP tomorrow?), it does raise a number of questions.

    – why in an age of instant communication, does it take the BHB 13 days to implement a changed handicap mark?

    – what is the reason for a win in a c’j race producing no penalty for a quick return?

     – why was the handicapper required to allocate a mark for Manhattan Boy at Newbury on the basis of a single run in a Bangor novice hurdle?

    My answers would be that unless a horse has already been declared at the final stage (i.e 24 hrs or 48 hrs), then the handicapper should immediately re-assess the mark and the weight should be adjusted accordingly. Only if a horse runs twice inside two or three days should the current fixed penalty system apply.

    Conditional jockey and apprentice races should be treated the same as any other race – the reasons for the difference are lost in history, but it was apparently intended to attract runners in those races. Clearly that’s no longer an issue.

    Finally, Manhattan Boy should have been required to run in another novice hurdle before being admitted to handicaps – it’s not as if he would have had any problems finding a suitable race.  

    The outcome tomorrow is a race shown live on C4 that will surely produce far less betting activity than normal – the only surprise being the presence of 16 other runners to take on Manhattan Boy. I’m sure Glenn will have a view on the chances of two non runners after overnight rain!

    My best guess at his SP – probably 2/1 on, but he’d be shorter than that on my board.

    AP

    #33091
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Not that familiar with the ins and outs of this particular horse but agree with the gist of what you say.

    In particular, I cannot understand why it takes so long for a new rating to come into effect.

    It could be that the authorities anticipate that the introduction of an appropriate measure would be met with uproar in some quarters. The authorities usually prefer to shirk a battle with such individuals if they possibly can.

    #33092
    nore
    Member
    • Total Posts 151

    So you’d snap up the Life’s forecast 3/1 then AP?

    #33093
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5124

    Quote: from apracing on 5:03 pm on Dec. 7, 2006[br]

    – why in an age of instant communication, does it take the BHB 13 days to implement a changed handicap mark?

    – what is the reason for a win in a c’j race producing no penalty for a quick return?

     – why was the handicapper required to allocate a mark for Manhattan Boy at Newbury on the basis of a single run in a Bangor novice hurdle?

    All of these are surely no more than ‘tradition’ and it would be difficult to think of a logical answer to them if asked the question ‘why’.

    Agree with your words concerning the re-assessment of handicap marks and the scrapping of penalty-free Conditonal/Apprentice Handicap wins. Would certainly lend many a handicap the competitive edge they’re designed for in the first place: Rosses Point race today and Jolly Boy’s sequence of wins last season two topical examples

    The problem with Manhattan Boy’s mark being assessed on the sole novice run was that it was a win which, like maiden wins on the Flat, allows the horse to run in handicaps next time out on a mark based – of necessity – on flimsy evidence. Again no logical reason for this, so why not scrap this rule and insist on three runs regardless of finishing position before being allotted a handicap mark.

    Infact I’m inclined to go further and say that no horses can run in a handicap until having had three runs in a conditions event and only then if it has been placed in at least one of those races.

    Don’t think it’d be giving much away to state that Timeform have Manhattan Boy 13 clear with a ‘p’ tomorrow.

    #33094
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Pretty sure that Hobbs did the double in the corresponding races last year with Motorway.

    #33095
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6939

    Quote: from apracing on 5:03 pm on Dec. 7, 2006[br]

    My answers would be that unless a horse has already been declared at the final stage (i.e 24 hrs or 48 hrs), then the handicapper should immediately re-assess the mark and the weight should be adjusted accordingly. Only if a horse runs twice inside two or three days should the current fixed penalty system apply.

    <br>Not without its own pitfalls, that, Alan, as you’d have to worry about there being a rise in the number of horses turning out two days running – even if having had a very hard race in victory or defeat in the first – as connections try to strike before the assessor has his say.

    Whilst this would be less of a concern with Flat horses, who can arguably withstand such treatment better, I’m not sure the sport needs to see jumps horses going wrong or capitulating exhaustedly two-thirds of the way into their second soft ground 3m chase in 24 hours.

    Think it couldn’t happen? Think connections will behave more responsibly than that across the board? I don’t – remember the end of the 2004-5 season?

    Jeremy<br>(graysonscolumn)<br>

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #33096
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Perhaps handicap marks should be reassessed once every six months, and that way horses won’t be abused as their connections rattle up a 12-timer at odds on.

    Surely, if running horses (perhaps just jumps horses) twice in a short space of time represents a threat to those horses’ welfare then you prevent trainers from doing just that rather than leave the handicap system open to its current abuse.

    IMO

    #33097
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Scrap handicaps and substitute them with conditions races!

    <br>IMO

    #33098
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Allan,<br>Lumping on @1.94 betfair? <br>Or did you get the evens?

    #33099
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3105

    <br>Seagull,

    I haven’t had a bet so far, but anything better than 4/5 on BF will attract my attention later.

    AP<br>

    #33100
    aston
    Member
    • Total Posts 168

    Connections are very sweet on Shes Supersonic chances. Info from shareholder.

    #33101
    empty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Laid the Good thing @ 1.98

    2nd and 3rd were having their seasonal bows, 3rd probably better on better ground too and  rest look much of a muchness

    Most interesting horse in race imo is Greenhope, if right this is well overpriced  at around 25’s

    #33102
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    At 4/5, a lay.  Definitely.

    #33103
    empty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Keep an eye on Greenhope, looked like running a big un, but FTO and ground probably found him out, not given an hard time when chance gone

    #33104
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    Well done EW.  The ‘good thing’ was totally buggered LOL<br>4/5?  Stupid price.

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