Majestic Handicap System…

[elcartero]

…..with thanks to Billion for giving me the idea !

Rules:
Handicaps only (No ladies, sellers, novices, apprentices, nurseries, conditionals etc).
No All-Weather or Summer Jumping races.
SPF in the Daily Mail or Mail on Sunday 2/1 or greater.
First, Second or Third LTO.
Maximum 14 runners.

Selections 04 July 2010:

240 Ayr Prime Circle
410 Ayr Forrest Flyer
440 Ayr Dies Solis
330 Brighton Denton Ryal
400 Brighton Cordell

Vaya Con Dios

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[billion]

Good luck with this

elacartero

Is this paper trade or is the pound down?

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Tough start

elcartero

but it may be the curse of the first posting

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

erm……Not a great start, Billion but only a paper trade at this stage.
Let’s see how we fare with the DM SPF for the coming week.
I’m delighted to see that you’re currently in cracking form and trust that the half-crowns are down
Incidentally, before anyone asks (as if they would) LTO refers to current season only.

Tough start

elcartero

but it may be the curse of the first posting

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[billion]

I am pleased to say the Half Crowns have been risked

elacartero

but am watching the weather forecasts because it always happens when things look to be going well the rain comes and it all goes to pot.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Handicaps !

Ratings worry me because they show the best a horse has achieved and then the handicapper does his best to ruin them.

So, is it better to find the horse on it’s way up into form or one that is already there?

The point I am coming to is regarding an old system for handicaps and Rule number 1 – delete any with a win LTO.

How many handicappers win two on the trot?

Then comes top or bottom of the weights.

Top weight must be the better horse.

Bottom weight cannot be the better horse but has perhaps the better chance of winning.

I am not meaning to hi-jack the thread

elcartero

but am just thinking aloud about the possibility of filter inclusion within an untried system but what if any?

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

Valid points, Billion…I’ll try to answer them later but rushing now as Head Office requires me to go shopping in Bishops Stortford…NOW!
Meanwhile, here’s today’s selections and remember this is a work in progress and paper trading only.

3.00 Bath Pinball (78)
4.30 Bath Wilfred Pickles (78)
7.40 Windsor Solemn (77)
9.10 Windsor Mellifera (78)
8.50 Ripon Polish World (77)
(Formcast Ratings are for info only and may be incorporated into the system should they become relevant)

Handicaps !

Ratings worry me because they show the best a horse has achieved and then the handicapper does his best to ruin them.

So, is it better to find the horse on it’s way up into form or one that is already there?

The point I am coming to is regarding an old system for handicaps and Rule number 1 – delete any with a win LTO.

How many handicappers win two on the trot?

Then comes top or bottom of the weights.

Top weight must be the better horse.

Bottom weight cannot be the better horse but has perhaps the better chance of winning.

I am not meaning to hi-jack the thread

elcartero

but am just thinking aloud about the possibility of filter inclusion within an untried system but what if any?

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[billion]

Shopping

The curse of the retired man.

Me too!

Mrs Billion wants to spend the week-ends winings – TRUE

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

Billion wrote….’Mrs Billion wants to spend the week-ends winings – TRUE’

Not an event that I have to worry about considering the appalling performance of what I had thought would be an interesting variation of the Majestic.
I don’t see any point in continuing with it and humbly apologise to everyone for wasting their time.

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[billion]

No apology required

elcartero

.

The Majestic (Non Handicap) is specifically created to swing the percentages in favour of the system i.e. favourites have a much higher win ratio in Non Handicaps –

we all know that!

It must follow that if a "handicap" Majestic is/was to work a/some filters must be employed to tilt matters in its favour.

Favourites DO win handicap races it is simply a matter of finding which ones and where they come.

Of the systems I am aware the most common filters I have found employed are: –

Top 1/3 -1/4 of the weights

Placed form of recent races

Won over the race distance

Either won LTO or NOT WON LTO

3rd and then 2nd prior to current race

First section of the betting forecast . . we don,t have a problem here because we are only concerned with the forecast fav.

Under 8st 7lb (Flat) or 10 st 8lb (NH)

And so the variations and combinations can go on and all this excludes handicap ratings.

Dare I say an unenviable task for anyone wanting to find a handicap favourite unless they have access to RSB or similar.

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

Yes Billion..altho’ not a filters man at heart I feel you’re correct in saying they would probably be appropriate in this instance.
I’ve got a copy of ‘Compunter’ somewhere on my hard drive and if I remember correctly it utilises all the factors you quote in one of its ‘modes’ so when I get a moment I’ll give it a try.
Vaya con Dios….

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[Francis]

There may be nothing wrong in applying the rules of the Majestic System to handicaps to arrive at a selection. However, arriving at the decision to bet is another matter. The issue then surely becomes ‘can the horse win with today’s weight?’
It seems to me that this is cannot really be systemised as you will have to compare the performances of other horses at the weights they are carrying today.
Regards

[Author]

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