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For the first time I will take issue with you
MrE
but please do not read this wrongly, because I know to my cost that in the past my postings have been taken in a different context to the sentiment and sometimes I should simply shut up, button it and say nothing.
You make winner finding sound so easy
and it’s not!
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Winner finding is hard, well it is in my case and although I am massively in agreement with you regarding all you say about staking, without winners or 2nd & 3rds no money management can turn losers into profit.
There ia always hope that if you do keep posting I may as yet get that holiday at Canvey Island
Billy's Outback Shack
I think that today is very hard, I’m getting thrown into disarray because of the constantly changing going…. I thought we’d seen the last of the rain for a bit….
So I’m gonna tread a bit carefully today….. I think my main bet has to be….
4.05 Salis.. Ashbrittle @ 6.00 I would like 2.00 for the place part but because of the drop in prices I might accept 1.80…..I should leave the others alone, but I can’t at the price being offered, so I am having a PLACE only bet to 0.5pt stakes on these two…..
3.20 Newm.. Hibaayeb @ 6.20….
3.55 Newm.. Flipando @ 6.70….
MrE
It sounded oooohh soooo close on the radio for Ashbrittle, I hope you took your place price
MrE
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion…. yes mate, as mentioned before, it’s the only way that I bet….. that made me a profit of 1.53pts after commission deducted….. but I also lost the two small place bets in the other races, so still a half a point profit today on what was a really rubbish day…. I think I made a bit of a mistake by not asking for 2.00 for the place like I normally do, but the damn thing was dropping in price and I had to make a decision, so I took the 1.87 that was offered, but in the end I was happy with what I got…… I already knew that I could afford the extra 1pt bet on the others without causing too much pain and knowing that there was a chance of adding a nice chunk to the kitty….. but thats the way it goes, it didn’t happen today, but we made ourselves half a point from a total outlay of 5pts….. it could have been so much better…..
MrE
OK Billion, now to answer your earlier post…. you can take issue with me any time, I’m just giving my advice and explaining my thoughts…. it is quite possible that the whole forum will take the opposite view to lots of things that I say, especially if I start spouting on about some of the other things that I have in my Portfolio, but it still remains that it is MY thoughts and ideas, the fact that you think and act differently is what discussions and forums are all about and I take no offence whatever…. as long as other members don’t get offended by me either…. I have this nasty habit of taking the pee or having a bit of sarcastic repartee, and I believe that this can sometimes be offensive, but believe me, it’s never meant that way….. nobody should get upset by anything I say…. it’s all just the way I think at the time of writing and there are always smiley’s at the end of my posts to excuse any rudeness…. life’s too enjoyable to get heated….. what is it my grand daughter says all the time….. Cool…..
In answer to your "issue"…. you are wrong mate, it is easy (or should be) to find winners….. this posts going to get a bit long so I’ll start another….
MrE
Where was I… oh yeah, winners are easy to find….. and so they are, the difficult job is to get the winners at the right prices, this is the "value" that I keep bubbling on about….. winners are plentiful and easy to find….. you say that you struggle Billion…. why????…. there are loads of sites out there that will point you to winners, there are different means to bet that will capture winners, like dutching the first four in the market, the sites that I go to are flooded with winners….
I can’t mention any sites on the forum, but I use one site that uses ratings as a means of producing winners and for the last 2 years they haven’t had a single day go by without having at least one winner from their top rated selections….. the average for this site is a fantastic 11 winners a day, bearing in mind that there can be 40+ races a day, you can see that you need to get the prices/staking correct….. but thats not the bone of contention is it???…. your saying that its HARD to find winners…. I’m telling you that its NOT…. the ‘net is full of ’em, I aint looked yet, but I bet this forum has its fair share of winners too, they are not hard to find…. what is hard is to find the ones at the correct prices that match your strike rate and then staking accordingly….. the previous site that I mentioned that has 11 winners a day from 40 races, if you only get 2/1 for those winners, then your gonna get your botty kicked….. but there’s still 11 winners and they are not hard to find at all…..
I would suggest (respectfully) that you spend some time Googling some sites and look at what they’ve got to offer…. I can’t/won’t post the names of the sites on here to avoid the accusation of spamming or profiting in some way…… but if your struggling, Matron MIGHT be able to help……
MrE
I find it hard, yes, very hard to know how to say thank-you
MrE
for being so understanding and willing to help. So I guess
thanks
will have to do.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion…. I have no problem at all in helping anybody that wants it, that’s the idea of joining in again…. I’m not sure, but I think I joined this forum in about 2001, and I don’t think that I’ve ever advocated doing something I have not already achieved success at….. we had a really cracking group of guys down here in the basement in those days, a lot of laughter and some serious systems….. Matron was always around to keep us in order, but sometimes we used to talk after lights out…. Matron couldn’t hear us cos he was too busy "talking" to Sister Jay in his office….. we shouldn’t talk about the past because the poor old sods past it now, but I had prior knowledge of when it was gonna be safe from Matrons "rounds" because I was Ward 7’s condom prefect (nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more…. thats for Monty Python fans)…. I suppose that what I’m trying to say is that, I am not the sort of guy that will tell porkies just for the sake of spending an hour on the forum writing, I have better things to do…. so it’s up to you and all the other members that find it interesting, to read and digest, I am only trying to help….. there’s an even money chance that I’ll be gone without a goodbye…. but NEVER could anybody say that MrE wasn’t helpful and fun… and above all, make sense…..
No more preaching… win or lose, lets get on with having a laugh and hopefully win some wonga in the process, cos that really is all this is about…. winning money and enjoying the time on the forum, there’s nothing better…..
and an extra one…. MrE
Hi guys…. I’ll be missing during racing hours for the next few days, so no selections until Friday at least…. I might fill the time in by telling you ONE of the methods that I use to trade on the Xgames, there’s loads of strategies that you can find out for yourself, but I’ll show you one that works exceptionally well for me…..
MrE
Hello again….. I’m going to tell you a strategy for Betfair’s Xgames….. I do NOT expect you to play straight away, I DO expect you to put a couple of hours paper trading in to get the feel for it….. I don’t wan’t any clever dickies jumping in with both feet, make sure you test the water first by just dipping your toes in…..
The Xgames are RNG games (Random Number Generated), but without going into all the technical poo, just take my word for it that it is never TOTALLY random….. there is an action within the playing of RNG games that is called "variance", you can’t avoid it, thats the run of losers that you get after you’ve been winning….. but because the randomness has to balance out (to within 2.5% or even 1.35% in some cases), it is equally possible that you can land on a positive variance cycle…. I’m trying to avoid the mathematical hoohaa of probability, but this is just to explain why I go for the odds that I do…. another of my "value" things…. I’m hooked on "value", does it show????….
so, we have an equal chance of landing on a positive or negative "variance", to balance this out you just need to add 1pt to your expected price to obtain the "equaliser", thats the extra profit margin built in to cover the chance that you might land on a downward slope….. confused????… don’t be… its just to explain why I ask or expect BETTER prices for my bets than I should be getting…. we NEED that extra 1pt for the reasons just mentioned…. without it you will lose long term…… as the game progresses, you will understand better, so don’t beat your head in for the moment, just nip back and refer the this post now and again as a refresher and to answer your question as to why????…. it’s a good job we called this the "Lucky Dip", you never know where your going to end up….. I’m going to start a new post now… and we are going to concentrate on the hardest of the Xgames…. the Card Derby…..
MrE
THE CARD DERBY…. Betfair Xgames….
At the beginning of the game all suits are the same price…. then three cards are dealt to each suit giving a handicap…. this is allocated by the number of high cards still left to come AFTER the three handicap cards have been drawn…. the cards where the three handicap cards are dealt is Round 2….. at Round 2 you will get the prices for each suit according to the handicap….. we are only interested in the "FAVOURITE" (shortest price) at that given time….. you do NOT place any bets yet…..
Now we need to look at the extra 1pt that I talked about in my previous posting….. this is a four horse (suit) race, so the true odds are 3/1 (4.00) any suit winning, you are now going to add that extra 1pt on and look to getting 5.00 or better for that favourite…..
In Round 2, the favourite will be between 3.00 and 3.50, so you don’t place your bet yet….. but if it doesn’t draw any cards or it draws only a low card, it ends up in last position, this usually happens in Round 3 or Round 4…. if it ends up lagging behind, check the price and you will see that it’s price has drifted to 6.00 and sometimes 7.00…. but remember, as above, you can accept 5.00, that still puts you at an advantage…. OK, now if in Round 3 or 4 you can get 5.00 or higher, take the win bet at £2….. if in the following rounds it drops in price, then lay it off and you will "green up"…. for those that don’t know how to trade, it means that you win WHATEVER the result…. in other words, you cannot lose….. example…. a £2 win bet @ 5.00 will return you a profit £8….. if the price on offer later in the game is 3.00, you LAY £3 @ 3.00…. which means that should you win, you win £8… and your lay bet loses £6.00, you have a £2 profit…. if the bet loses you have WON £3 from the LAY but lost the £2 WIN bet, you are still £1 in profit…. it’s a NO LOSE situation…. and the Card Derby is probably the game that offers the better odds for this type of bet…. it is a no lose bet if you can master it…..
OK, lets look on the downside…. it’s possible that you strike your win bet and the price never drops for you to be able to "lay off"… well, that will and does happen, but at least you know that your on the best horse (suit) in the field at the most favourable odds at the time…. why???…. because from the very start its got all the cards yet still to come in it’s favour, thats why it’s the favourite…. that doesn’t change throughout the game…. even if it’s in LAST place,,, the best cards are still to come…. it could still turn up three 10’s in one hand whilst all the others have used all theirs….. whatever the price in the later stages of the game, your ORIGINAL favourite must still have all the cards in it’s favour…. and you have got the best odds because you have got BETTER than the true odds of 3/1 (4.00)…. you MUST win long term….. it works for me…..
This might confuse some of you, don’t let that put you off….. if you haven’t done trading before, it might seem like a nightmare, it’s not…. just ask, nobody is gonna take the wee-wee……
MrE
Hi guys…. I quite like the look of one today….
7.40 Aint.. Fighting Chance…. N/Runner….
This has been running well in Class 4 races (3 wins on the bounce)…. its last race was a step too far I think because it was a Class 1, today’s race is a Class 3 and I would think that its well withing his compass…. I hope…. the 12.00 and (4.00) look very tempting…..
MrE
A good day’s racing today….. lets see if we can sniff out a decent bet…..
3.35 Hayd.. Overturn…. 2nd….
5.10 Ascot.. Secret Asset…. LOST….
Hopefully these should at least give us a run for our money…..
MrE
As always happens, it’s the curse of posting….
We haven’t had a good time of it lately, mainly because I can’t post every day, but nonetheless, these are our results and shows how you can still make a very good profits…. the results on this thread aren’t about to get anyone’s juices flowing, but you will see that the staking is absolutely spot on….Yesterdays two selections left us with a deficit of (-0.87pts after deductions)…. that’s 7.13pts returned from an outlay of 8pts….. this brings out total balance to + 9.06pts from a total expenditure of 20pts….. thats an ROI of 45% approx….. our target is 20%, so we are still above target….. this thread is not a tipping thread as such, it is an effort to show that, with the correct staking, even a poor run of results should keep you in touch with your bank….. hope this is helping…..
MrE
You are still ahead MrE which is the main thing that matters.
Your staking is working well.
Regards – Matron
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