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yeah that’s a good point. Everyone is always suspicious when there are blanket finishes. Yet Sir Percy is what? 11 lengths better than DT or DD? :o
The sad thing about Sir Percy is that we do not know, and may never know, his true merit.
All we can do at this stage, as we can do with any horse, is rate him on what he has achieved, not on the ifs and buts and maybes.
I think his Guineas form is about as good as he is over a mile (i.e. half a stone worse than GW) and agree that his Derby form is, on the face of it, about the same level (123-ish). If you were being kind you would give him a ‘+’, or even a ‘p’, behind his mile and a half running in the Derby as it was a difficult run to assess and he did look, along with Hala Bek, to be one of the two horses at the time who one would not be surprised to see improve beyond that form as the season progressed.<br>
And in the Irish derby, maybe im the only one who recalls that DD pulled all over the place and possibly even did well to finish where he did (although that race really doesnt look too good at all…)
I remember it well, Clive. I punted it and felt Holland didn’t have one of his better days.
It may also be worth pointing out that G Wragg, since the Derby, has had a miserable season. I use recent stable form as a major source of my selections, but it doesn’t seem to be relevant to punters here.
Steve, good argument. Plenty of sleight of hand regarding DD, but well argued nonetheless. I’ll go with Corm’s summing up until the Sheema and Coronation Cup. We’ll see.;)
but surely not to the degree that he should be rated up with the principals in the Arc.
:cool: Oh…*thinks*…nah, I’ll leave it.
Quote: from clivex on 7:55 pm on Oct. 15, 2006[br]Well seeing that taking winning distances (rather than manner) seems to be all the rage here, one of those group 2’s that DD lost was won by non other than Rail Link. The winning distance was much the same as when RL beat HR in the arc
And in the Irish derby, maybe im the only one who recalls that DD pulled all over the place and possibly even did well to finish where he did (although that race really doesnt look too good at all…)
But if every horse was rated just according to the proximity of a subsequently disappointing animal….<br>
Two good points there Clive
Rail Link had put in one of the best middle distance peformances prior to that race
<br>He also sweated up in the Irish Derby if i remember correctly
And probably ran into the next Shirocco in Flashing Numbers
I look at Sir Percy the same way as I look at Oratorio, He put in a good performance in the Irish guineas, then ran not so well in the derby (sir percy ran better but Oratorios stronger derby probably suited him less), when you look at the balance of how hes ran on his first two 3yo starts he looked like a great 1m2f horse, it is sad that he was not in tune for the champion but i dont think weve seen the last of him and i’ll be having a go on him next season in 1m2f events where everyone else is doubting him, because thats how value works.
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<br> Just my view, but anyone who rates Dragon Dancer the equal of Sir Percy on their Derby running,(including RPR), either has no soul, or just plain didn’t see the race!
Steve, good argument. Plenty of sleight of hand regarding DD
Really, where?
The argument is simple:
(1) If SP’s best ever performance was in the Derby
(2) And SP is a top G1 horse (the sort that could win an Arc or even beat HR and Pride in the Champion Stakes)
(3) Then either:
(a) So is Dragon Dancer (and Hala Bek – this must be a banner year for UK 12f 3yo colts)
or
(b) SP is far better than he’s ever shown on a racecourse.
That’s a pretty straight forward and clear argument IMO.
Now, I remember the slagging aimed at Aiden O’Brien every time he claimed that One Cool Dud was "a super horse at home but just never shows it at the racecourse."
And, at least one of these people is amongst Sir Percy’s biggest fans.
But now, if you doubt a horse is better than he’s ever shown, you’re accused of "twisting" the facts.
Or that your have "no soul". :biggrin: :biggrin:
Steve
Did you watch the race steve?
No recollection of SP coming from a bloody awful position to collar the others? And if SP happens to run that way, using his tremendous turn of foot, then the winning distances are never going to be that great are they? And they dont need to be
Frankly when interpreting form i prefer to see HOW the race was won rather than simply judging everything on the distance it was won by
Did you watch the race steve?
Yes.
No recollection of SP coming from a bloody awful position to collar the others?
I remember him coming from behind.
Here’s an idea, go for a 1.5 mile run, Clive.
Run 1.5 miles today by running the whole distance at an even speed.
Tomorrow, do the same course, but walk it until the last 220 yards. Then run the last 220.
Now, on which day did you run the fastest last 220 yds?
Sir Percy took almost the exact same time (well, within about 0.05 secs) to run the Derby that DD did. What was different was the way he distributed his energy during the race.
Go back and watch the Prix Du Jockey Club won by Bleu Canari. See how fast he ran the end of the race!
Wow! Fantastic!
Problem was, in a true run G1, if he kept himself handy enough to cvhallenge at the end, he didn’t have the energy left to produce that finishing kick.
Which is why he was well beaten in future G1’s.
I’m not saying that SP is as poor as BC. What I’m saying is that, based on all his performances on the racecourse, believing he’s much more than around 124 involves a hell of a lot of assumptions.
(most of which have been trotted out by SP fans on this thread)
You can choose to believe that "pace doesn’t matter", "race times don’t matter" or that "distances between horses don’t count", that’s fine.
However, if others choose to believe these well established methods of analysing horse races, then maybe you should show better grace than accusing them of showing animosity against "posh trainers".
Steve
"distances between horses don’t count", that’s fine.
This is stupid. If you had understood what I said you will see that they matter in context of how the race was run both in terms of the pace and the (especially relevant at epsom) the traffic encountered. <br>
the traffic encountered.
So, now it was traffic problems?
You guys are wasted on this forum. You should be working on Tony Blairs speeches on Iraq. :biggrin:
Steve
…and Dancing Brave, who was quite good, couldn’t even get up from his unpromising position.
Quote: from Aidan on 2:02 pm on Oct. 16, 2006[br]Didnt Kris Kin come from an equally unpromising position in his Derby?<br>
yes he did.An unremarkable winner of a weak renewal.
Kris Kin ran from the path shortly after the turn into the straight to the line in approximately 39.6 sec, Sir Percy in approximately 39.1 sec. However, Kris Kin’s race was run in 2.34 sec faster overall, and his finishing sectional was closer to standard in terms of %s than Sir Percy’s was.
So, put into a wider context, Kris Kin did not come from an equally unpromising position. Being a few lengths off a strong pace – and the opening 9 furlongs or so of the 2003 Derby was one of the fastest in modern times – is more "promising" than being up with that strong pace.
All that proves is that fast derby’s aren’t necessarily good derby’s cos Kris Kin was hardly a great horse..
Well, yes, that is true, but the point I was trying to make is that what constitutes a "promising" or "unpromising" position depends on more than how many lengths off the leader a horse is. Kris Kin ran his race more efficiently than did Sir Percy for all that the visual impression might have been similar.
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