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For once, which I can’t quite believe, I am in full agreement with DJ.
Clivex – I couldn’t care less which stable he comes from. Tregoning is actually a trainer I quite like, given that he talks to the press quite a bit and keeps them informed. Might I also suggest that you don’t know me, and therefore have no idea what I look/sound like?
But I haven’t been a fan of Sir Percy since the Vintage Stakes, and I thought he was lucky in both the Dewhurst and Derby. Say all you want about the stable being in poor form, but like i said, both Dwyer and Tregoning reported that his gallops hadn’t gone brilliantly and was in top shape.
Wasn’t Noseda’s yard meant to be in poor form a month or so ago?
And Ballydoyle at the start of the year?
As for Dylan Thomas in the Derby – he was ridden incorrectly, so I think it’s rather unfair to criticise him for coming 3rd after being a ‘pacemaker’ for the entire race.
And also perhaps, just maybe, Dragon Dancer is a horse that acted very well round Epsom?
DJ, I was in a recent debate with Bulwark where the matter was left as one to agree or disagree on.
I’m in the latter camp as regards trip hence the heads down punt at 14’s in the Arc and a just-in-case bet yesterday.
Steve – Dragon Dancer ran out of his skin, pretty much like Terimon and Blue Stag in past Derbys. Ratings experts tend to ignore horses like this one when compiling ratings. I think you’re either overplaying the Devils Advocate role or are tipping over into bias. It seems like SP attracts this kind of thing.
Jackster, so is Sixties Icon a quality horse or not based on your stable form point? Do you assess the animal at York or Longchamp?
I’m saying Sixties Icon is a good horse. I’m saying despite the stable’s ‘poor’ form, his quality shone through brightly. The same happened with George Washington for O’Brien in May. But it didn’t happen with Sir Percy yesterday.
Whether that is down to the form genuinely affecting the horse, or the horse perhaps not just being as good as everyone expected, of course can be debated, but personally I feel it is the latter.
I don’t see Sixties Icon as any better than an average G2 horse.  The reason I say this is that the StLeger was no better than an average G2 quality race this year.<br>The Derby is an unfair benchmark to define SP’s ability by IMO.  DD obviously loved the track, regardless of his overall ability.  Epsom has proved in the past that a horse that acts (or doesn’t) on the track can run as much as 20lbs superior/inferior to it’s ‘proper’ rating.  We can take horses like Oratorio as proof of this.  I’d rather compare SP to Hala Bek.<br>
(Edited by Racing Daily at 4:12 pm on Oct. 15, 2006)
Dragon Dancer ran out of his skin
A horse can’t run faster than he can run.
I’m going to suggest that, in any true run race gainst G1 horses, DD will be well beaten.
Yet, he came close to winning this year’s Derby.
What does that tell you?
I think you’re either overplaying the Devils Advocate role or are tipping over into bias.
What’s the basis of this belief?
Lets look at RPR. They have the Derby is his best performance (121).
Look at other Derby winners from recent years:
Mot 129<br>NL 124<br>KK 123
So, 3 horses – none of whom ever won another race – all ran to a better rating in the Derby than SP has ever run in his entire career.
Or, to look at it another way, SP’s rating performance in the Derby (remember – best rating of his career) was the same as the Derby perofrmances of superstars such as:
– Walk in the Park (never wona gain, only career win an egg & spoon race in France)
– Great Gatsby (never won again, only career win was in a maiden)
(and, of course, Dragon Dancer, who’s never won ANY race)
That’s not my bias. That RPR ratings.
Now, I’ve never said that SP is only a 121 horse or that he’s only just a short head better than DD.
What I have said is that he’s a horse that’s never run to the level of his reputation.
Perhaps he would have, had he not had a setback. But maybe he wouldn’t.
Maybe he would have just turned out to be like most horses that never run a really big race – incapable of running to a really big rating when it was needed.
It seems like SP attracts this kind of thing.
Did you ever stop to think about why?
Here’s a clue: … 121
It’s funny that some people are willing to dismiss Rail Link’s Arc win because it came from a slow pace.
But, say the same about Sir Percy’s Derby win and accusations of "bias" and class resentment are thrown at you…
Hmmm …
Steve
A horse can be flattered by his run though. Isn’t that why form exists? To find the genuine articles and the ‘frauds’?
A horse can’t run faster than he can run.
But given optimum conditions, a stable full of healthy horses and an inspired ride, a horse can outrun his public form.
Lets look at RPR. They have the Derby is his best performance (121).
More than likely, the Racing Post Handicappers were erring on the side of caution. I am on record as suggesting that the rating undervalues the Derby by about 4lb.
Using Red Rocks for example, beaten two lengths by Rail Link in the Grand Prix De Paris. Red Rocks was beaten three and a half lengths by Sixties Icon at York who had earlier been hammered by Sir Percy in the Derby.  Red Rocks is a pretty consistent yardstick and by my back of matchbox calculation, Sir Percy should be rated somewhere around Rail Link.
Why the discrepancy? I can’t see it. As much as I view SP’s form favourably, other sources don’t seem to using the same evidence.
And it isn’t fair to assume that all these horses, (DT, SI, RL, Araafa) are all suddenly improving at a rate of knots and SP is not.  That’s what I mean by bias, Steve.
And there is bias. When DT was tailed off at Churchill Downs, there was silence and commiseration. New surface, new challenge, the travelling etc.
When SP was struggling yesterday, you could hear the eager pencils being sharpened from the tip of Warren Hill.
So, 3 horses – none of whom ever won another race – all ran to a better rating in the Derby than SP has ever run in his entire career
There are grounds for believing that all three of the Derbys you highlight, Steve, were overrated judged on subsequent performances. And comparing races and horses across generations is an inexact science at best.
What I have said is that he’s a horse that’s never run to the level of his reputation. ÂÂÂ
What reputation is that? Seldom have I seen a horse so cautiously approached. He has his fan club yes, (which can be quite vocal, granted), but far from rolling in a box full of hype, SP has been damned with faint praise from most quarters, with the honourable exception of the staff at the Sportsman.
Tell me. The Derby. With the exception of GW, name one horse this season in ANY grade of race who showed SP’s acceleration from the furlong pole. That incredible burst of acceleration makes a horse impossible to rate accurately. ÂÂÂ
It’s a shame that we’ll have to wait till next year to find out who’s closest to the facts.<br>
Dragon Dancer is no sort of yardstick at all
he has clearly gone backwards, (theres always one derby contender that seems to do that…race leaves its mark maybe) pulling hard and all sorts since
Sir pecy is a "lucky" derby winner? Comes through from an awful position and to take them at the post? lucky? If Dancing Brave had got up would he have been "lucky" too?
Seems to be that the form is abused because of the slow pace. Get used to it. With more of the top horses having an emphasis on speed this is likely to be the pattern from now on….
"…to find the genuine articles and the frauds".
Laugh?
I nearly bought a round.
Tell us about your afternoon at Longchamp again, Jack.
Funniest thing I ever heard…
(Edited by Godolphin at 7:05 pm on Oct. 15, 2006)
So the RP rating is dragged up and we are all supposed to bow down and accpet that as final conclusive proof ….
But given optimum conditions, a stable full of healthy horses and an inspired ride, a horse can outrun his public form.
He can outrun his public form, but he can’t run faster than he can run.
It’s not like DD has subsequently backed up his Derby form.
So, it seems to me that you’re willing to make a lot of assumptions about DD … far more fanciful assumptions than I (or RPR) have.
More than likely, the Racing Post Handicappers were erring on the side of caution. I am on record as suggesting that the rating undervalues the Derby by about 4lb.
So, that makes DD a 125 horse? It’s getting less credible by the minute.
Using Red Rocks for example, beaten two lengths by Rail Link in the Grand Prix De Paris. Red Rocks was beaten three and a half lengths by Sixties Icon at York who had earlier been hammered by Sir Percy in the Derby. Red Rocks is a pretty consistent yardstick and by my back of matchbox calculation, Sir Percy should be rated somewhere around Rail Link.
That’s one hell of a lot of assumptions about a lot horses running up to exactly the same level of form in a number of different races over a period of months.
Personally, I think that Sixties Icon has improved significantly since his Derby Run … as do almost all observers.
So, if your case for Sir Percy is that Sixties Icon at Epsom ran as well as Sixties Icon at York, then it looks a pretty shaky case to me.
And it isn’t fair to assume that all these horses, (DT, SI, RL, Araafa) are all suddenly improving at a rate of knots and SP is not. That’s what I mean by bias, Steve.
You’re saying that, "assuming that SP would have improved as much as this other horse improved then …"
It’s just all speculation.
My argument is that he has never shown a really high level of form.
Yours is "he would have".
So, again, I’d say my argument is far stronger because it’s based on what happened, not what "might have been".
There are grounds for believing that all three of the Derbys you highlight, Steve, were overrated
So, another foundation of your argument is that SP’s Derby was underrated (and that DD is a 125 horse) while the others were overrated?
What reputation is that?
Let’s see. Apparently yesterdays race was "in the bag". And, of course, there were the suggestions that he would have won the Arc.
That’s a lot of faith in a horse who’s never run to a RPR that’s equal to the top horses in those 2 races.
Have you ever considered that there may be biases in the RPR’s Steve?
Biases? Or errors?
If you want to believe that SP (and Dragon Dancer) deserved higher ratings fromthe Derby, feel free to believe this.
Or, if you want to believe the last 3 winners of the Derby were overrated, then feel free to believe that too.
Dragon Dancer is no sort of yardstick at all
I think DD is a perfectly good yardstick to the level of SP’s Derby performance. Which is why, sinc the race, I’ve repeatedly said that the form of the Derby isn’t up to much.
It seems that SP’s supporters are basing their arguments on the follwing claims:
(1) DD is a proper G1 horse
(2) A win in a slow run Derby is of equal merit to a win in a fast run Derby
(3) The RPR compiler(s) hold a grudge against SP (and posisbly also against "posh" trainers)
(4) SP would have improved from his Derby performance to the same degree as DT because, well "because".
This, to me, seems a hell of a lot of assumptions, with a hell of a lack of evidence to support them.
By comparison, my belief is that the horse has been fairly rated by RPR and, until he shows he can run to a much higher rating, I’m sceptical that he can.
Now, who’s going out the way to twist an argument?
Steve
What would his level of form at a mile be, assuming GW is rated about 130 to 132 as seems likely?
Excellent stuff again from stevedvg, who is fast becoming my favourite poster on here.
No bias, no chip on the shoulder. Sir Percy won a Derby in a blanket finish, and it would be utterly exceptional were the bare form he showed in winning that race better than low-120s.
If this year’s Derby was one of these exceptions, how come Dragon Dancer has been beaten comprehensively in another Group 1 and two Group 2s since? That is not the record of a 125-rated horse: far from it.
Sir Percy could arguably be rated better than the bare result at Epsom, but surely not to the degree that he should be rated up with the principals in the Arc.
If he is that good he still has to show it. I hope he gets sufficient opportunity to do – or not to do – that in the future.
Well seeing that taking winning distances (rather than manner) seems to be all the rage here, one of those group 2’s that DD lost was won by non other than Rail Link. The winning distance was much the same as when RL beat HR in the arc
And in the Irish derby, maybe im the only one who recalls that DD pulled all over the place and possibly even did well to finish where he did (although that race really doesnt look too good at all…)
But if every horse was rated just according to the proximity of a subsequently disappointing animal….
George Washington gave Sir Percy a 7 lb beating in the Guineas. Which puts Sir Percy around 123 using George on 130 as you suggested. That would pretty much have Sir Percy running to the same sort of figure as he did in the Dewhurst.
Quote: from Aidan on 11:48 am on Oct. 15, 2006[br]
Problem is his best to date is around 121-124!! People seem to forget that!!
Would you not be worried about the firm ground races next year? I think if he does stay in training next year is his runs will be few and far between.
Problem is, this reminds me of another 3yo. rated 111- 117 and plagued by injury
connections keep in training, wins Coronation Cup at 4,  goes on to win two Cup races at 5 and now heads down under  with excellent claims of winning if reproducing the Cup form
<br>Where’s the problem?  only in your mind Aidan :biggrin:
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 10:32 pm on Oct. 15, 2006)
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