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Long Term big race flat entries

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  • #3111
    insomniac
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    • Total Posts 1453

    In years gone by I used to spend hours analysing the big stable entries for the following seasons  Epsom classics. In conjunction with Horses in Training, I would guesstimate how many of a yards 2-y-o’s were likely to get One and a half mile at three and then calculate what percentage were entered in the Oaks and Derby. From those large stables with the smallest percentage, I would then follow at three those unraced at two. Didn’t keep a detailed log (but probably lost money :-(    ) but the method threw up some good winners (notably User Friendly. ) <br>In those days trainers who seemed able to identify their unraced juveniles class level best were (not in any order) Michael Jarvis, Peter Walwyn, Clive Brittain (yes- honestly!) and Geoff Wragg.<br>I never bought Horses in Training this year, so don’t know how many 2-y-o’s Geoff Wragg has care of now. Can anyone enlighten me? <br>Geoff Wragg seems particulary frugal when it comes to paying the initial entry fee for the Epsom classics. I noticed that he has two entries in next years Derby. One has run this year already (and got stuffed – so make of that what you will), the other, The Carlton Cannes by Grand Lodge is entered for a maiden at Leicester on the 10th.  This is usually a decent maiden with many of the top yards represented. Wragg doesn’t rush his charges – however old they are – so it’s fair to say this won’t be the real deal first time out. But he knows the time of day and does have the occasional debut 2-y-o winner. This horse is owned by Jeff Pearce who didn’t stump up the entry money for Asian Heights to run in the Derby at the initial entry stage although he did after he won the Predominate Stakes. From that you can conclude a couple of opposing views.<br> i) They weren’t that smart as assessing Asian Height’s merit or<br> b) They (Wragg and Pearce) are really frugal when it comes to the grander entries.  (They did however cough up for Dragon Dancer – so weren’t far out there.)<br>Based on all the above, The Carlton Cannes is my horse to follow for 2007 (and possibly at Leicester on the 10th Oct.)<br>Does anyone else analyse race entries for any particular yard or owner (Flat or NH). If so why and what results have you achieved? Or is it just another pie-in-the-sky approach?  

    (Edited by insomniac at 8:37 pm on Oct. 5, 2006)

    #78904
    Librettist
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    • Total Posts 559

    Yes I do. I always keep a record of unexposed types that were given entries in group races. This at least can give you a vague idea of what connections feel the particular horse is capable of and can come in very handy when it’s once raced maiden running round Nottingham in a Handicap of a mark of 80 (and everyone else has forgotten it was left in the Oaks at the final forfeit stage before being taken out):)

    #78905
    FlatSeasonLover
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    • Total Posts 2065

    Quote: from Librettist on 8:50 pm on Oct. 5, 2006[br]Yes I do. I always keep a record of unexposed types that were given entries in group races. This at least can give you a vague idea of what connections feel the particular horse is capable of and can come in very handy when it’s once raced maiden running round Nottingham in a Handicap of a mark of 80 (and everyone else has forgotten it was left in the Oaks at the final forfeit stage before being taken out):)

    Can a once-raced maiden run in a handicap round Nottingham? :confused:

    This is something I hadn’t really considered and is a very interesting line of thought. Equally though, don’t some stables give loads of their horses entries into the Derby even if they are unlikely to stay or be good enough?

    Did you back Hala Bek?

    I’ll have a look at that now. It must be painfully time consuming though,

    <br>

    #78906
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    Sorry, I meant a once raced maiden *winner* (Reunite)

    Yes it is true that a lot of the bigger stables make multiple entries for the biggest races just in case but the really interesting ones to note are the ones that are left in after the forfeit stages.

    (Edited by Librettist at 9:53 pm on Oct. 5, 2006)

    #78907
    insomniac
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    FlatSeasonLover<br>No – didn’t back Hala Bek – but that’s because I rarely back horses nowadays, much prefer football betting.<br>Used to love the horses – but recent radical change in lifestyle has meant I don’t have the time to be as thorough as I once was.<br>The logic behind my approach was that, if a trainer had say, 16 colts that might stay 12f, but had only entered 4 for the Derby, one of which was unraced, then it was reasonable to assume that that unraced beast was held in some regard.  Some trainers (at least in the years I analysed this) seemed more discerning than others: Michael Jarvis was one of those trainers. Don’t know how his percentage would rack up nowadays. It might be that, with very wealthy arab owners, every bugger with its testicles in place would be entered for the Derby; maybe not. When I was  burning the midnight oil years ago he was one of the ones I followed. (Remember backing an unraced Oaks entry of his in an early season Chepstow maiden that won @ 3/1 I think. Was a gp 3 filly by the end of the year.) <br>I’m not saying that The Carlton Cannes will win the Derby, nor that it is necessarily a group horse but, if G. Wragg has a large enough squad of 2-y-o’s, its entry in the Derby suggests some ability. (The salvo being that his other Derby entry has already been stuffed.)

    #78908
    Mr Frisk
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    • Total Posts 163

    Michael Jarvis may never have been champion, but if I had to pick a "pound-for-pound" trainer in Newmarket in the way people sometimes do in boxing, he’d do for me.

    #78909
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    A fellow called Peter Gordon used to produce a newletter called Futureform which was a labour of love before mass computerisation.   He used to get the entries for all the listed and group races around Europe and index them so that his loyal band of punters would know the entries for 2yos and 3yo maidens.

    He made a lot of money that way and could afford to own a few horses himself on the back of his success.

    It is now much easier as you can just click on Engagements in the form of a horse on the RP database.  Certainly I wouldn’t have a bet in a 2yo race without checking what entries they all have.  I agree that some fancy nominations can be optimistic but if you pick your trainers and work out the realists then there is money to be made this way.<br>

    #78910
    robert99
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    • Total Posts 897

    Certainly it is a sound a source of "hidden" information as is using breeding and trainer stats.

    Some caution is needed if the race entry actually is the race they are going for and they are only using prior prep races half heartedly. For a small trainer what looks like a world beater may only be an also ran in a major stable. Also, social races such as the Derby and Royal Ascot may only lead to entries because the owner wants some reflected glory or bragging rights, whereas a Ballydoyle etc entry has definite potential. Need to check the owners out as well.

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