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This made me laugh …best get bthe moans in now Mike …Ginger will be along later to preach his wisdom ……
imo
If you insist Ricky.
2.
54U1
Long Run
9 11-9 (160) Nicky Henderson
Exceptionally well handicapped on best form, not shown it for a long time. 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner by 7 lengths and 4 from a below best Denman and Kauto Star (3m2½f good). Still a good performance, beating 4th What A Hand just over 11 lengths. Dual King George winner, first one (3m good-soft) an excellent 12 lengths success over subsequent Ryanair winner Riverside Theatre.Not so good since
, including a second King George, scraping home by a neck from Captain Chris (heavy). First time visor when jumping fell apart and unseated when chance had gone in latest renewal (soft) penultimate start. Slow
deterioration
in form has seen handicap mark slip
some 22 lbs from 182 to 160
. Cheek pieces refitted, simple task in confidence boosting 4 runner event (3m2f good-soft) at Kelso last time. Gives impression will stay further than 3m2f. Probably acts on soft but
very best efforts on good or good-soft and in ear plugs
; could benefit if hooded.
Does not need to be near best to win
off this mark, but does
need to be better than recent efforts, including in the jumping department
. Can “leave his back legs behind”.
Ridden by owner’s son; an amateur jockey who’s unable to claim his 3 lbs allowance in this race. However, has an outstanding record around National fences anyway, including 4th last year on Oscar Time. Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
Certainly wouldn’t make SWC a negative jockey booking around here. Doesn’t get the 3 lb allowance he’s recieve in other races, but tht’s made up for with his record around here. Not the jockey’s feet that are on the ground anyway. It’s the horse that counts.
Three best handicapped horses in the race are Long Run, Burton Port and Tidal Bay. Just a matter of:
Have they the other attributes needed to win a Grand National? Is the price available worth taking the risk that they are still capable of running to form good enough to win? Notice I do not say "show their best form". All three can win this race by being quite aa bit below their best and been given a great chance by the handicapper.
Has Long Run got the attributes needed?
Well I really like the fact he usually races fairly prominently or tracks pace. Where most Nationals are won from. However, his jumping is a major worry, even with these new fences. Sometimes leaves his back legs behind and it can get even worse if Sam does not find space it sometimes goes to pieces when crowded. That said, with a horse that’s got so much in hand (on best form) there’s still a chance of jumping errors failing to take enough energy out of him.Those that think Long Run will somehow show his very best and believe he’s been trained with this race in mind are crazy. Unless we hear they are using ear plugs or hood, best three runs in former but seldom used. imo They’d improve his chance no end.
If connections believed him back to his very best – would they have really thought "Nah, we don’t want to win a Betfair, third King George and a second Gold Cup", just in the hope of jumping well and beating 39 runners in a handicap? If connections knew he was still capable of his very best they’d have run in the Gold Cup…
But there is obviously a chance he’ll run well enough to win. Needs to do better than the 4 runner Kelso form, even allowing for ease of victory. Better than the performance before unseated in this season’s King George. None of this season’s four efforts are good enough to place. But almost every run prior to this season would see him in with a great chance. Even the placed efforts in Grade 1 company; let alone the much better first King George and Gold Cup winning performances.
imo Has the third best chance of winning.
I might have a saver on him depending on ground conditions, or even main bet if hooded/ear plugged which would make him THE best chance.Value Is EverythingNicky Henderson has never trained the winner either and that’s a fair monkey to carry on your back for such a long time given the horses that go through your hands year in year out.
Can’t see the trainer being a negative, Paul Nicholls had never won it till he did
I know what you mean but these things have a habit of continuing, call it Sod’s Law if you will. Nicky has been in the game a bit longer than Paul as well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nicky Henderson has never trained the winner either and that’s a fair monkey to carry on your back for such a long time given the horses that go through your hands year in year out.
Can’t see the trainer being a negative, Paul Nicholls had never won it till he did
I know what you mean but these things have a habit of continuing, call it
Sod’s Law
if you will. Nicky has been in the game a bit longer than Paul as well.
Not "Sod’s Law" Steve, it’s the Law Of Averages. It’s obvious even the best trainers will have a big race somewhere that will elude them, if not for all time then for a long time… And this is a handicap with 40 runners. So it is THE most likely race.
Handicapper often gives a top trainer’s horses a pound or two more.
Henderson had the old fashioned view of "You need a good 2 1/2 miler to hunt around the first circuit". He’s aimed the wrong type at the race in the past. And, if you look at his CV, he’s had more runners at shorter distances anyway, so again, might have tried his hand with non-stayers.I’d have been against most Henderson horses in the Grand National over the years, purely on the grounds of stamina.
Which all means punters should judge each individual racehorse, whether it will stay etc.
Long Run isn’t your typical Henderson runner.
Value Is EverythingGinger/ couch ……whatever …..
they call you nowadays ….your a cornflake poster Sir ….how about you answer my question on the sectional time thread , and stop trying to evade the issue
I made you a direct challenge …so far you have remained quiet
lets see what you know ??
imo of course
Ginger/ couch ……whatever …..
they call you nowadays ….your a cornflake poster Sir ….how about you answer my question on the sectional time thread , and stop trying to evade the issue
I made you a direct challenge …so far you have remained quiet
lets see what you know ??
imo of course
He always has a lot to say ricky but is very evasive and always twisting others words or putting words in their mouths that they haven’t said. Like anyone who wants a jumping test in the National likes to see lots of fallers.
Maybe he remains quiet when he realises he’s wrong and has lost the argument, should be man enough to admit it though.
He should be on Mastermind, he knows tons more about placing horses than Nicky Henderson.
Long Run isn’t your typical Henderson runner.
Long Run
isn’t your typical runner full stop.He’s a Gold cup winner and his form is head and shoulders above everything else,the more I look at it the more I cant see him being out the 4.If he doesn’t go off Fav then my names not TAPK legendary ruler of the Ante-Post Kingdom.Of course the more I look at ‘Long run’ the more I look at
Burton Port
.I’m going into battle with 25/1 and 33/1 vouchers on these two,throw in
Tidal Bay
at 25/1 and you can see why betting Ante-Post pays.
Not "Sod’s Law" Steve, it’s the Law Of Averages.
Ginger, you are trying to apply logic to Sod’s Law. The whole point of the Law is that there is no logic in it. Sod’s Law is a belief that if anything can go wrong it will go wrong. There is no sense in it, just superstition. If Long Run is travelling well and is brought down by another faller or if he is hampered, that is what I would call Sod’s Law.
Sometimes you just get a feeling in your water and Duffman has a bad feeling about Long Run
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ginger/ couch ……whatever …..
they call you nowadays ….your a cornflake poster Sir ….how about you answer my question on the sectional time thread , and stop trying to evade the issue
I made you a direct challenge …so far you have remained quiet
lets see what you know ??
imo of course
He always has a lot to say ricky but is very evasive and always twisting others words or putting words in their mouths that they haven’t said. Like anyone who wants a jumping test in the National likes to see lots of fallers.
Maybe he remains quiet when he realises he’s wrong and has lost the argument, should be man enough to admit it though.
He should be on Mastermind, he knows tons more about placing horses than Nicky Henderson.
Don’t get your knickers in a twist ladies. Thought this place is supposed to be a freindly forum.
Sorry Ricky, believe it or not – I’ve had other things/subjects on my mind this last week, what was it now? Ah yes, Aintree and the Grand National. Hadn’t realised you threw me a "challenge". I’ll look it up and respond with gusto once Aintree is over if that’s ok with you?Although I do take on the likes of AP McCoy, Richard Phillips, Alistair Down, Mike Cattermole, Lee Motershed, Craig Thaike, Steve Dennis, and the boys from Raceform etc… in a Racing Team Quiz… would never be any good at "Mastermind". Unless we’re talking about the naff 80’s kid’s game Eddie.
Value Is EverythingIt is a mystery to me that The Package is the same price as Long Run.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Long Run at as low as 10/1 is a joke price
. I don’t believe the horse has retained anything like his old form and a win at 2/5 in a four horse affair round Kelso is a million miles away from what he will face on Saturday.
Tea For Three at 8/1 is nonsense as well.
He is a one paced plodder and must be about the poorest favourite I have seen in many a year.
The usual rip off prices will prevail on Saturday as the once a year punters have no clue they are getting the eyes ripped out of them.
Duffman strikes again
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nicky Henderson has never trained the winner either and that’s a fair monkey to carry on your back for such a long time given the horses that go through your hands year in year out.
Can’t see the trainer being a negative, Paul Nicholls had never won it till he did
Two fallers, a pulled up and 17th of 18 finishers meant another blank year for Nicky Henderson.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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