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Agree. LR would have won 15 lengths if BG had been in the plate. The way he took him into that fence gave the horse no hope (nothing to do with LR’s dodgy jumping
). The sooner NH and his dad realise this the better. The horse could have been another Arkle if not for the jockey. Blatant nepotism 
SWC has an amazing win record over the National fences so I wouldn’t go writing Long Run off just yet
This made me laugh …best get bthe moans in now Mike …Ginger will be along later to preach his wisdom ……
imo
At least LR isn’t 13 years old! We had the big front page for a failed Big Bucks and now we have a front page Racing Post for Tidal Bay. Lets hope they are right this time.
SWC’s record around the National fences is actually really good. Long Run has a tendency to clout one and may not get away with it around the National fences.
His profile coming into it reminds me of The Fellow (9yo former GC winner with multiple GCs under his belt). The Fellow was cantering when he fell at the Canal Turn in 1994 and I think Long Run’s unusual course this year has been all about one race. SWC may yet have his biggest day.
Timeform’s recent analysis of the effectiveness of current riders over GN fences is here:
https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Article … s_the_bestAnd an extract from it . . .
Let’s get the caveats in first. Any measure taken over the National course, which is used just five times every season, is always going to be susceptible to the vagaries of the small sample size. Also, one of the five races, the Fox Hunter, is restricted to amateur riders. In this sphere Waley-Cohen unsurprisingly excels (no other amateur is in the top 30), though maybe not by as far as you’d think: he notched up two wins and a second with Katarino, but either side of that double act his record has been unspectacular.
These points of mitigation are one thing, but take another look at the table. This is no bunched finish and Waley-Cohen no Lord Windermere: he and Walsh are pair-clear in their records over the spruce. Walsh gets the plaudits he deserves for his excellent Aintree record. Waley-Cohen doesn’t.
Moreover, injury is going to force Walsh out of this year’s race. Were Waley-Cohen not booked for a ride and Walsh 4 lb ahead of anyone else, most would shrug and deem it fair enough; no trees uprooted, no wheel reinvented. As it is, Walsh will be absent and Waley-Cohen is 6 lb clear. He’s an outlier that shouldn’t be discarded given what Timeform’s jockey ratings have served up already.
I quite like Long Run in this but I do worry about SWC’s tendency to (IMO) be too handy and go for home too early (Rajdhani Express at festival latest example).
But he has decent record at Aintree where those tactics suit better (over national course) and if the horse ‘takes to it’ he surely has a live chance.
Nice one Mike.The build up to the National always attracts our friends and family to pose the famous question to those of us who spend 364 other days studying horseracing as to "Who’s going to win"? Well I’ve been tipping
Long Run
to all those pin stickers who take me seriously as his form is way ahead of the whole field and at 14/1 he is over-priced.That of course might just have something to do with Sam Waley Cohen in the saddle.I cant believe he’s twice the price of ‘Teaforthree’ a horse who couldn’t win a Gold cup if he started now.Those who rate themselves judges however have been blessed with the 33/1 about
Burton Ports
chances from myself as he too has met proper Gold cup horses off levels in his day and is very well handicapped on ‘Long Runs’Gold cup form alone.I personally hope Sam rides his horse like he knows how and if he jumps the last in touch he’s the one to beat.I also think that being a 13yo is a bigger handicap to
Tidal bay
than having Sam on board ‘Long Run’.He could yet go off fav and should be imo.
Timeform’s recent analysis of the effectiveness of current riders over GN fences is here:
https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Article … s_the_bestAnd an extract from it . . .
Let’s get the caveats in first. Any measure taken over the National course, which is used just five times every season, is always going to be susceptible to the vagaries of the small sample size. Also, one of the five races, the Fox Hunter, is restricted to amateur riders. In this sphere Waley-Cohen unsurprisingly excels (no other amateur is in the top 30), though maybe not by as far as you’d think: he notched up two wins and a second with Katarino, but either side of that double act his record has been unspectacular.
These points of mitigation are one thing, but take another look at the table. This is no bunched finish and Waley-Cohen no Lord Windermere: he and Walsh are pair-clear in their records over the spruce. Walsh gets the plaudits he deserves for his excellent Aintree record. Waley-Cohen doesn’t.
Moreover, injury is going to force Walsh out of this year’s race. Were Waley-Cohen not booked for a ride and Walsh 4 lb ahead of anyone else, most would shrug and deem it fair enough; no trees uprooted, no wheel reinvented. As it is, Walsh will be absent and Waley-Cohen is 6 lb clear. He’s an outlier that shouldn’t be discarded given what Timeform’s jockey ratings have served up already.
Do these stats/ratings take into account the much softer fences since last year? That could be significant. I’ve a feeling Waley-Cohen will do nowhere near as well as he has done previously now the fences are softer.
Timeform’s recent analysis of the effectiveness of current riders over GN fences is here:
https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Article … s_the_bestAnd an extract from it . . .
Let’s get the caveats in first. Any measure taken over the National course, which is used just five times every season, is always going to be susceptible to the vagaries of the small sample size. Also, one of the five races, the Fox Hunter, is restricted to amateur riders. In this sphere Waley-Cohen unsurprisingly excels (no other amateur is in the top 30), though maybe not by as far as you’d think: he notched up two wins and a second with Katarino, but either side of that double act his record has been unspectacular.
These points of mitigation are one thing, but take another look at the table. This is no bunched finish and Waley-Cohen no Lord Windermere: he and Walsh are pair-clear in their records over the spruce. Walsh gets the plaudits he deserves for his excellent Aintree record. Waley-Cohen doesn’t.
Moreover, injury is going to force Walsh out of this year’s race. Were Waley-Cohen not booked for a ride and Walsh 4 lb ahead of anyone else, most would shrug and deem it fair enough; no trees uprooted, no wheel reinvented. As it is, Walsh will be absent and Waley-Cohen is 6 lb clear. He’s an outlier that shouldn’t be discarded given what Timeform’s jockey ratings have served up already.
Do these stats/ratings take into account the much softer fences since last year? That could be significant. I’ve a feeling Waley-Cohen will do nowhere near as well as he has done previously now the fences are softer.
I don’t know. From memory. I believe his stats are very strong over the ‘old’ fences
I think Long Run at as low as 10/1 is a joke price. I don’t believe the horse has retained anything like his old form and a win at 2/5 in a four horse affair round Kelso is a million miles away from what he will face on Saturday.
Tea For Three at 8/1 is nonsense as well. He is a one paced plodder and must be about the poorest favourite I have seen in many a year.
The usual rip off prices will prevail on Saturday as the once a year punters have no clue they are getting the eyes ripped out of them.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Long Run at as low as 10/1 is a joke price. I don’t believe the horse has retained anything like his old form and a win at 2/5 in a four horse affair round Kelso is a million miles away from what he will face on Saturday.
Tea For Three at 8/1 is nonsense as well. He is a one paced plodder and must be about the poorest favourite I have seen in many a year.
I think Long Run at as low as 10/1 is a joke price. I don’t believe the horse has retained anything like his old form and a win at 2/5 in a four horse affair round Kelso is a million miles away from what he will face on Saturday.
Tea For Three at 8/1 is nonsense as well. He is a one paced plodder and must be about the poorest favourite I have seen in many a year.
Good luck with Long Run Gord but I much prefer Tidal Bay of the class horses. I may be way wrong but I just feel Long Run isn’t in love with the game the same way now. Nicky Henderson has never trained the winner either and that’s a fair monkey to carry on your back for such a long time given the horses that go through your hands year in year out. Have a good one!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
). The sooner NH and his dad realise this the better. The horse could have been another Arkle if not for the jockey. Blatant nepotism 
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