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An extremely fascinating 6 runner race on the first day of the aintree meeting with the big four; Black Jack Ketchum, Inglis Drever, Mighty Man and Blazing Blazing all running.
Be interesting to see whether Lough Derg or Fire Dragon will set a strong pace for the big four. This race is difficult to call.
As much as I’m a fan of Inglis, I can see him being beaten tomorrow with the ground suiting BJK and Mighty Man ideally.
If BJK is as good as Mccoy and O’Neill persist on insisting he is, tomorrow’s the day he proves it.
I think Black Jack will take it, won the novice equivalent last year, and Inglis Drever will want it softer. The strong pace will probably suit him better than ID aswell. Mighty Man isn’t good enough to win against this mob IMO and Blazing Bailey would also prefer softer. He’s trading at about 2.62 on BF at last check, decent value in a 6-runner race I think.
Inglis Drever has won 2 stayers’ hurdles on good ground. Think it would be folly to assume he needs cut in the ground. The race has the hallmarks of being a no bet race, though there could be some value in backing either the Drever or Mighty Man in running. I would think both will trade above their sp prices at some stage given what we know of their racing styles.
<br>I reckon it’s unwise to make assumptions about how the ground will ride tomorrow – we simply have no previous evidence of what effect continuous watering might have at Aintree as it’s never been done on this scale before.
Either way, Aintree is a much stiffer test than the supposed 3M at Cheltenham as indicated by the times – Aintree averages 15 – 20 seconds more than Cheltenham on similar ground.
I’ll certainly be against BJK if he’s a shorter price than either of the first two at Cheltenham.
AP
with mighty man needing closer to 4 miles than the ridiculously measured 2 mile 6f of the stayers at cheltenham i’d be of the opinion he would be likely to win for the 3rd time in a row at this meeting, turning around the form with the ever tough Drever.
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Quote: from apracing on 4:09 pm on April 11, 2007[br]<br>I reckon it’s unwise to make assumptions about how the ground will ride tomorrow – we simply have no previous evidence of what effect continuous watering might have at Aintree as it’s never been done on this scale before.
Either way, Aintree is a much stiffer test than the supposed 3M at Cheltenham as indicated by the times – Aintree averages 15 – 20 seconds more than Cheltenham on similar ground.
I’ll certainly be against BJK if he’s a shorter price than either of the first two at Cheltenham.
AP<br>
Couple of points AP.<br>The ground is reported daily on Turftrax for the big meetings, and at 6.30 last night averaged 7.8 on the going stick, which is only a tad faster than perfect ground at the moment. It’s anybody’s guess what effect the forecast blazing sunshine will have though.<br>Can’t really agree about Aintree being a stifffer test though. RP standard has 3m Cheltenham as 5m 34s, Aintree 3m 110yds as 5m 56s. <br>Time per furlong equates to 13.9s Chelt & 14.53 Aint, but that ignores the much greater number of bends at the latter, which has to slow horses down and make it less of a test, and that Chelt. attracts more/better horses to its gd1 test, as opposed to Aintree’s gd2, thus generating slightly lower standard times.<br>I know which I’d rather run round, anyway.;)
Black Jack Ketchum at his best will win this on a track and ground that will be tailor made, however he has to get his confidence back after the fall at Chelts and although I’ll not be betting in this race BJK gets my vote and I really hope we see him at his best.
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<br>RH,
Going stick reading for the first day last year was 7.6 and the ground was calculated as good to soft by Timeform – officially good, good to soft in places.
I reckon it will be much the same tomorrow. But we’re all guessing given the amount of watering this year.
AP
Quote: from cormack15 on 5:27 pm on April 11, 2007[br]Black Jack ketchum is the lay of the season tomorrow.<br>
A brave statement Cormack, I’ll give you that.
I remember the days when BJK was going to do a ‘Dawn Run’. One bad run on heavy and an early fall later and people have him down as a lame duck. I’m giving him one last chance tomorrow; the conditions should suit him better than any other horse in the race.
Although what I’ll really be keeping my eyes peeled for tomorrow is the side-topic here; the going. Will have massive implications come Saturday IMO.
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Going at 4.45pm today;<br>Good, average reading 8.1.<br>The Sun has the edge over the hosepipe at the moment.
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Although I wouldn’t back the horse as he has still to prove himself at the very top level, I totally agree with TDK that he is far from a safe lay.<br>It seems that some sort of ‘reverse hype’ has overtaken a few of his detractors, but horses of his calibre and promise don’t suddenly lose their ability without a very good reason, and I can’t see anything in his last 2 runs to suggest he has. <br>Similarly, those who suggest he won’t stay must have very short memories. ÂÂÂ
<br>Amazingly, the Post tips box for this race shows 12 tips for Mighty Man, 2 for Inglis Drever, 1 for Lough Derg (!) and none at all for BJK.
AP
2:00 Aintree –JOHN SMITH’S LIVERPOOL HURDLE GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)<br>Small but classy field for this stayers race, which see’s the likes of last years top novice Black Jack Ketchum looking to atone for a disappointing fall in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. World Hurdle winner Inglis Drever also takes to the field, as does runner up Mighty Man, third placed Blazing Bailey and a couple of others in Fire Dragon and Lough Derg. The race will be set up by Fire Dragon making the pace and he should set a decent enough clip on his favoured conditions. Inglis Drever looks to be better suited to a galloping track, so Aintree shouldn’t really play to his strengths. Mighty Man on the other hand has excellent course form (2 runs, 2 wins), and running so bravely last time up gets his favourite flat track here. Last year he won this very race comprehensively smashing My Way De Solzen (Previous World Hurdle winner). Black Jack Ketchum has a lot to prove to his loyal followers but I don’t think he’ll be able to beat Mighty Man tomorrow. Blazing Bailey looks just a class short of winning this, but he should run his usual race.<br>Advice: 2pts Win – Mighty Man
Quote: from thedarkknight on 8:47 pm on April 11, 2007[br]There is absolutely no way Black Jack Ketchum is the "lay of the season" at around 2-1 imo…
There are only 4 runners that can be seriously considered and he has laughed at one of them on the bridle this season. Yes – he still has to prove he can beat Mighty Man and Inglis Drever and there are still some question marks surrounding the horse.  Indeed, if he was being priced up at 1-2 tomorrow then maybe he would have the look of a horse to get stuck into – but 2-1 is a different proposition entirely – in fact he looks a bet at that price to me.
(Edited by thedarkknight at 8:48 pm on April 11, 2007)<br>
He was then beaten over three miles by the same horse. Who is also a five year old.
This is a no bet race for me, between the three principals and if I had to plump for one i’d go for Inglis..
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