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The first meeting on the new polytrack at lingfield, the official going was given as <b>standard to slow</b>.
Looking at the results and times on the day, I ended up with a going allowance of <b>-0.02s/f</b> per furlong, which makes the time base going as <b>standard</b>.
<b>AW going allowance table:</b>
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
<b>Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f</b>
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/f<b>Yesterday’s speed figures:</b> (No WFA)
02:00 Pira Palace 6f -0.02 <b> 65 </b>
02:30 Close Together 1m -0.02 <b> 36 </b>
03:00 Al Aqabah 7f -0.02 <b> 56 </b>
03:35 Correspondent 7f -0.02 <b> 69 </b>
04:05 Dr Yes 1m4f -0.02 <b> 92 </b>
04:40 Marmas 2m -0.02 <b> 32 </b>
05:10 Schoolmaster 1m -0.02 <b> 63 </b>
05:45 L´Hirondelle 1m -0.02 <b> 58 </b>Does this change mean that we can throw the advantage for past C and D winners out the window or is it more down to the undulations tan the surface that some horses go well there??
Does this change mean that we can throw the advantage for past C and D winners out the window or is it more down to the undulations tan the surface that some horses go well there??
Not at all
.Looking at the going allowances for the meetings held on the 10th, 11th,13th and 18th August the time base going for these four meetings was
0.00s/f
per furlong, yesterday’s time base going was
-0.02s/f
, so there is no change there.
Ryan Moore was quoted as saying the track was riding similar to the old surface
I had the going as ‘slow 50’ which is pretty slow
There was also a huge range between Marmas at -35 and Dr Yes at 59 on base figures before going allowance
The marmas race was just very very slow
Of the races where the winner had a BHA rating I had 4 of the races showing between slow 54 and slow 63 so that’s not a bad grouping at all
I settled on slow 50 by taking the fastest race, Dr Yes, into account
Here’s my final figures in brackets after BB’s…….
02:00 Pira Palace 6f – 65 (71)
02:30 Close Together 1m 36 (46)
03:00 Al Aqabah 7f 56 (54)
03:35 Correspondent 7f 69 (75)
04:05 Dr Yes 1m4f 92 (109)
04:40 Marmas 2m 32 (17)
05:10 Schoolmaster 1m 63 (61)
05:45 L´Hirondelle 1m 58 (57)Dr Yes is the anomoly but looking at his form i don’t think the figure is wildly wrong………..I had him on 91 at Ling 10/8, since when he’s won a maiden by 4 lengths. I haven’t rated the Bath card but TS gave him 15 lbs higher at Bath than at Ling and if mine was the same that Bath run would have been 106
So it’s not a big jump to 109 – I suspect he’s a very good, improving horse
Dr Yes is the anomaly but looking at his form i don’t think the figure is wildly wrong………..I had him on 91 at Ling 10/8, since when he’s won a maiden by 4 lengths. I haven’t rated the Bath card but TS gave him 15 lbs higher at Bath than at Ling and if mine was the same that Bath run would have been 106
So it’s not a big jump to 109 – I suspect he’s a very good, improving horse
If I had a query about Dr Yes’s rating, I will always look at the first five home in the race, if I find that they have all improved 10lbs from their previous runs, it is normally a good indication that your going allowance has been calculated wrong
My last 5 speed ratings for Dr Yes:
17Oct12 Lin 12St/Slw C23yHc 10K
92
15Sep12 Bat 12Fm C5Md 2K
83
10Aug12 Lin 13St C5Md 2K
78
27Jul12 Nmk 12GF C53yMd 3K
63
22Jun12 Nmk 10Sft C53yMd 3K
56
As my class par for a class 2 race is
92
, I am happy with Dr Yes’s speed figure
I only do the AW meetings though BB………..so i haven’t got previous ratings for most of their runs
I don’t think the winner was too far out as explained above, probably about 3 lbs higher than his previous run
I only really use my ratings during the AW season but I keep them updated during the summer to pass a bit of time………
The Blues Brother & Slowly Away, I love it when you two post as you’re the only people I can really understand on here that have legitimate and scientific reasoning behind their opinions.
Lingfield Yesterday
80
– Pira Palace
77
– Close Together
79
– Al Aqabah
85
– Correspondant
91
– Dr Yes
82
– Marmas
81
– Schoolmaster
82
– L’Hirondlle
Variance 1.94 = Slow
Dr Yes
91
– Lingfield
93
– Bath
102
– Lingfield
84
– Newmarket
67
– Newmarket
89
– Sandown
One interesting thing here
BB has a range of 60 between his highest and lowest ratings
I have the same two horses but a range of 92
UnoHugh only has a range of 14 between his top and bottom rated
Blimey…………..
Obviously we all have different methodology and that’s good…….there’s no point spending time and effort just to replicate Topspeed – you might as well just use his figures
One thing I have noticed comparing my and BB’s figures over the last few months is that my scale tends to stretch out the figures compared to BB………my higher rated tend to be higher, my lower rated ones tend to be lower and the ones in the middle are about the same.
I think maybe that’s because I convert all race distances to 8F and use a standard 3lb per length whereas BB has a different LB/length depending on trip…………I’m not sure of the mathematics of it but my feeling is that the result of those different methods is to stretch out my ratings to make up for my race distances not being stretched out !
One interesting thing here
BB has a range of 60 between his highest and lowest ratings
I have the same two horses but a range of 92
UnoHugh only has a range of 14 between his top and bottom rated
Blimey…………..
One thing I have noticed comparing my and BB’s figures over the last few months is that my scale tends to stretch out the figures compared to BB………my higher rated tend to be higher, my lower rated ones tend to be lower and the ones in the middle are about the same.
I think maybe that’s because I convert all race distances to 8F and use a standard 3lb per length whereas BB has a different LB/length depending on trip…………I’m not sure of the mathematics of it but my feeling is that the result of those different methods is to stretch out my ratings to make up for my race distances not being stretched out !
Slowly Away, there’s no "definite" guide on how to become a recognized speed handicapper but the main concern is you understand the right principles and have the ground work in place to start projecting your ratings in which you seem to have.
Now, there’s nothing wrong with having a 60 difference or a 14 difference between top and bottom as long as your scale is interpretable on a ratio basis whereby it can be a universal measurement and has meaning between intervals.
How good do you guys have Sir Michael Stoute’s
Fleur De Cactus
when she won at Lingfield? personally I have it a large rating that has worked out well.
She’s a daughter of Montjeu who’s had just the three runs in which the handicapper has given her a mark of 85 but my question to you two is where will we see her next? there’s no doubt she’s better than 85 but with the season coming to an end will she be eclipsed and forgotten about next year with the influx of three year olds where we could get a lovely price about her?
Yes……….I always say that the point isn’t to compare my ratings with yours or with BB’s……….or with topspeed !
The point is to compare my ratings today with my ratings yesterday and last week and last month and last year……
As long as you’re consistant within your ratings it doesn’t matter what scale or conversions you use…….as long as you use the same ones all the time
As for Fleur de cactus I have her run at Ling as 91`which is the same as Dr Yes in 2nd – she won by 4 lengths but was carrying 5 lb less.
Two pretty good young horses I reckon…..I see she’s been given a mark of 85 which looks pretty lenient on that run. But I also she’s not entered up so i guess her mark might go up when she’s entered.
How good do you guys have Sir Michael Stoute’s
Fleur De Cactus
when she won at Lingfield? personally I have it a large rating that has worked out well.
These are my ratings for
Fleur De Cactus
.
10Aug12 Lin 13St C5Md 2K
78
20Jun12 Kem 10St C5Md 2K
59
29Oct11 Nmk 7Gd C42yMd 4K
41
Her last run at lingfield her rating of
78
bettered my (class 5) par by
+10lbs
.
My class pars:
G1-
120
G2-
113
G3-
109
LST-
104
C2-
92
C3-
86
C4-
77
C5-
68
C6-
58
C7-
49
My all aged speed figures can be compared directly against their official BHA handicap marks, as
Fleur De Cactus
now has an official BHA handicap mark of
85
she has to improve
7lbs
on my speed figures to equal her new mark of
85
.
For the 2nd meeting on the re-laid surface I have it riding a little faster than last week
‘Slow 50’ last week and today I have it ‘Slow 34’
The times were slower but the horses were of a lower grade so ‘slow 34’ is a combined going/class allowance.
However it was pretty low grade stuff, nowhere near as good a card as last week………..so I have the best performance as
Muhdiq 71
The surface yesterday was riding faster than the last four meetings on the old polytrack at
+0.05s/f
per furlong making the time base going as
standard
.
AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/fYesterday’s speed figures:
(No WFA)
02:00 Lady Bellatrix 1m4f 0.0558
02:30 Countryman 7f 0.05
48
03:00 Veeraya 7f 0.05
38
03:30 Manazel 1m 0.05
47
04:00 Boudoir 6f 0.05
53
04:30 Ginger Ted 6f 0.05
67
05:00 Muhdiq 5f 0.05
69
05:30 Bert The Alert 1m2f 0.05
69
Come over to a thread I made for us in the Trends section, I am awaiting your input Blues Brother and Slowly Away.
The new polytrack surface at Lingfield is now riding faster than the old surface, yesterday’s meeting I had the track riding at
+0.17s/f
per furlong and this suited horses running up with the pace like
Demoiselle Bond
.
The official going was down as
standard to slow
which is a big joke, the surface was one click away from
standard to fast
AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/fYesterday’s speed figures:
(No WFA)
12:30 Multitask 5f 0.1765
01:00 Demoiselle Bond 6f 0.17
71
01:30 Millibar 6f 0.17
67
02:05 Scottish Lake 7f 0.17
70
02:40 Saskia´s Dream 7f 0.17
62
03:10 Bladewood Girl 1m 0.17
58
03:45 Estedaama 1m4f 0.17
85
04:15 Ehtedaam 1m2f 0.17
62
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