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Taqleed needs just 4 to come out to make the final field. If he doesn’t make it, all AP bets will be refunded.
He’s a best price 12/1 now, so anyone on him at 16’s is sitting pretty, I’d say.The one that caught my eye most was Suited And Booted. He missed the second half of last season so I’d want to see positive comments from yard to suggest he’s definitely being targeted at the race but his profile looks good as an improver and a straight mile should bring out the best in him.
- Total Posts 17716
The one that caught my eye most was Suited And Booted. He missed the second half of last season so I’d want to see positive comments from yard to suggest he’s definitely being targeted at the race but his profile looks good as an improver and a straight mile should bring out the best in him.
Dsvid I tried replying to your blog on the train yesterday with no luck, I just can’t see Suited and Booted having a stone in hand but could run into the placings at the least decent horse.
The time is nearly here when we switch our attention from the grandeur of the National Hunt game to the glamour of the flat. Well, that is until the following week when a certain Aintree showpiece ensures that the jumping fraternity once again take centre stage.
That ol’ chestnut ‘Group horse masquerading as a handicapper’ is woefully overused for this contest – only two horses in the last ten years have gone on to record a group success. Blythe Knight, a veteran of over thirty races at the time of his success, would go on to become a dual Group 3 winner, and Smokey Oakey would also succeed at the basement group level. The majority have not progressed.
Ten year statistics always make for interesting reading:
Four year olds have won the previous three renewals and have claimed six of the last ten. Any unexposed 4YO is certainly on the shortlist when you analyse the winners in recent years.
Six of the last ten winners have been rated in the mid-high nineties and 40% of them have filled a top four position.
There’s no obvious draw bias, with 56% of the top four holding a single figure perch and 44% double. The ground appears to have very little, if any, impact on the race.
William Haggas has trained two winners in the last four years and Richard Fahey has four placed efforts in the previous seven.
Plenty of ante-post value on offer.
Irish Heartbeat
, although an exposed 6YO, is certain to get in, versatile groundwise and Richard Fahey sent out Prime Exhibit to be runner-up last year. He won over course and distance in March last year with victory in the Spring Cup, has a solid record in big, competitive fields and is available at 16/1.
Suited and Booted
is progressing nicely and is another who has proven versatility groundwise. This 4YO is open to plenty of improvement and is available at 20/1.
No sign of Kalk Bay in the trial at Wolves so it looks like he wont get in the Lincoln.
The other one I like, Our Joe Mac, should get in though. Annoyingly Pricewise gave him a mention in his weekender column recently so his price has shortened.
I couldn’t back him ante post though – his breeding and best form, Chester and Haydock, were both on a softer surface. He looks a potential improver as a 4yo though, if he gets the ground.
I know that its like refereeing decisions in football – it balances out over the course of a season etc. etc.
But why Bravo Echo can’t be retrospectively bumped up the handicap after Lowther has monumentally franked his form is very annoying. As I mentioned earlier in this thread I think Bravo Echo is a different horse now and if he got into the Lincoln he woould be massive value at 33s. He beat Lowther eased down at Kempton and looked like a brand new horse. Lowther has since won two on the bounce and in my fairytale handicapping mind makes Bravo Echo at least 10lbs well in.
Lincoln Trends
Age
4 year olds have won 6 of the last 8 renewals.
Only 1 horse older than 6 has won in the last 21 years.
Weight
9 of the last 11 winners carried between 8st 9lbs and 9st.
9 of 15 horses carrying a penalty have finished in the places.Ratings
9 of the last 11 winners were rated between 90 and 98.Form
All of the last 11 winners had won over a mile or further.
9 of the last 11 winners had won a race worth at least £10,000.
8 of the last 11 winners were having their seasonal debut.
7 of the last 11 winners had won a Class 2 or higher.
5 of the last 11 winners won last time out.Trainers
Mark Tompkins, Paul Cole, and William Haggas have both won the race twice in the last 11 years.Draw
8 of the last 9 winners have been drawn 13 or lower.
7 of the last 9 winners were drawn within 6 stalls of the Spring Mile winner.Price
8 of the last 11 winners were 10/1 or shorter.
5 of the last 11 favourites have won.Lincoln Handicap – Last Eleven Winners
2010 Pentitent 3/1f
2009 Expresso Star 10/3f
2008 Smokey Oakey 10/1
2007 Very Wise 9/1
2006 Blythe Knight 22/1
2005 Stream of Gold 5/1f
2004 Babodana 20/1
2003 Pablo 5/1
2002 Zucchero 33/1
2001 Nimello 9/2f
2000 John Ferneley 7/1jfThe Field – only a possible 22.
I have added trainer comments about likely participation where I have come across them.Penitent – Penitent might make the race but may not run it in favour of a Listed race, WH.
Harrison George – RF stated he was happy with his Lincoln horses but wasn’t sure what would get in the race yet.
Nideeb – Clive Brittain is eyeing up his first ever victory in the William Hill Lincoln with Nideeb – 9th Feb
Fareer – Pretty good run by Fareer, finished third prob got too far back, next run the Lincoln!! – 24th Feb. Twitter
Sweet Lightning –
Iver Bridge Lad –
Fathsta –
Castles In The Air – – RF stated he was happy with his Lincoln horses but wasn’t sure what would get in the race yet.
Nationalism – Nationalism is doing fine and there is no reason why he won’trun." JG 24th Feb
Axiom –
Navajo Chief –
Big Creek –
Shamali – WH did say: Shamali is scheduled to have a prior run in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton on 19 March. So I’m not sure what happened there.
Splendournthegrass – We’ll stick him in the Lincoln and see how we get on. He runs well fresh & is very straightforward – DL,From Timeform interview.
Light From Mars –
Mass Ralley –
Lowther – “If it’s good or firm, he’ll be there," said Bailey, "but he wouldn’t go if it is soft
Docofthebay –
Tartan Gigha –
Irish Heartbeat –…..Just spoke with Mr Fahey,he seems in good order(the horse that is) and the plan is to run – from BF Forum 24th Feb
Doctor Crane – Doctor Crane is in good form and I am pleased with him. JG 24th Feb
Dubai Hills –Below 22.
Prime Exhibit – Likely to have an entry in the Irish Lincoln. Trainer said on website after Lincoln Trial run: “was seriously hampered on the bend and ran really well to finish 3rd”.
Brae Hill –– RF stated he was happy with his Lincoln horses but wasn’t sure what would get in the race yet.
Cockney Class –
Taqleed – "I see Taqleed is quite well fancied but he is not sure to get in. With these big, valuable handicaps you need to be rated 95 to get in. JG 24th Feb.
Our Joe Mac – Likely to have an entry in the Irish Lincoln
Al Muheer –
Dream Lodge –
Fremont –
Prince Of Dance – Trainer stated b4 Lincoln trial he would go for this
Eton Rifles –
Gunner Lindley – The weights for the Lincoln were published last week and hopefully Gunner Lindley will get in. He is one of the favourites and looks really well at home so we would be disappointed if he didn’t get to run. He’s definitely matured and strengthened up over the winter. 21st Feb, Trainers website.Some of those of interest to me:
Gunner Lindley:
Thus far has carried the bulk of my ante post money.
Fits the above stats. I very much like his attitude, as he seems to like a battle & can find more when headed. A straight mile with a bit of cut looks ideal for him & his ‘handy’ run style should be a plus if the ground is on the soft side. Connections seem keen to run & seem slightly bullish.Docofthebay:
Seven year olds that have ran 46 times don’t really fit the profile of previous winners of this race, but I consider this one to have good place prospects. He has only been with David Nicholls since November and was once rated 10lbs higher. It is possible that this trainer could squeeze a few lbs improvement out of him yet. He has been in great form recently & his run in a 7f Wolverhampton Listed race showed he was still in good heart., especially as he would have been 8lbs better off with the winner Dunelight, had the race been a handicap. Granted; racing handily at Wolves that day was a big help, but this former Cambridgeshire (9f) and Royal Hunt Cup (8f) runner up should go well if lining up.Mass Ralley:
Looking at his career to date it wouldn’t be unfair to describe him as a bit of a ‘dodgepot’ – the Racing Post once noted that he “kept on reluctantly”. A horse with plenty of talent, able to cruise through the main part of his races, only to find very little at the finish.
He was with John Gosden last season but has since moved to Michael Dods and appears to have been gelded. That operation may possibly make him less ‘reluctant’ and if so, he could be set for a good season. I have had a small bet at 110 on Betfair, though I have no idea if he will line up or not.Our Joe Mac:
An obvious contender with the caveat that he does seem to need slow ground. His last run at Ayr on Sept 18th can certainly be forgotten. The going was good (gd/fm) officially, but the Going Stick was 9.2 which suggests fast ground. This hoss clearly needs cut. He fits the profile of a lightly raced 4 year old (above stats state 4yo have won 4 of last 6 runnings). It would take some doing, but could this horse land the Irish Lincoln prior to running in this race? The IL will be ran on March 20th, so it is possible to take in both races.Running Plans update.
In an article in today’s Racing Post, which doesn’t seem to have been reproduced anywhere online: Clive Brittain suggested that Nideeb was more likely to go for The Winter Derby at Lingfield on March 26th, rather than the Lincoln Handicap.Our Joe Mac and Kyllachy Star are entered in Sunday’s Irish Lincoln. Our Joe Mac will have his favoured soft ground.
Richard Fahey also mentioned on Twitter that Irish Heartbeat was: ‘(in)good order but not sure what Paul will ride yet!’ with regard to that ones participation in the English Lincoln.It’s not hard to imagine Irish Heartbeat cruising just behind the leaders entering the final furlong in a fortnight’s time, such is the ease with which he travels in his races. The big question is what he will find thereafter. He barely gets a mile. It looks like a back-to-lay scenario, for me.
Our Joe Mac and Kyllachy Star are entered in Sunday’s Irish Lincoln. Our Joe Mac will have his favoured soft ground.
Richard Fahey also mentioned on Twitter that Irish Heartbeat was: ‘(in)good order but not sure what Paul will ride yet!’ with regard to that ones participation in the English Lincoln.On OJM tomorrow – whilst I don’t doubt for a minute that he is both well handicapped (when racing on soft) and open to improvement, I fear that the cat is out of the bag, thus making him unbackable. It will be interesting to see what his odds are in the early prices.
Also, it’s difficult to assess the where R Faheys string are in terms of fitness. Broadly speaking his few runners have been running to form.
John Gosden was reported by today’s Racing Post to have said: "Nationalism will need rain if he is to make the Lincoln line up. He worked nicely this morning as did my other entries, Taqleed and Doctor Crane, on the Al Baharthri Polytrack."
The article also mentioned that Nationalism had been gelded since his last run, last season.Of the two Irish Lincoln runners from the Richard Fahey stable, Kyllachy Star finished 3rd, and Our Joe Mac 13th. The first four home in that contest were drawn 1,3,5 & 4 so this has to go down as a very disappointing effort from Our Joe Mac who was drawn 2.
Kyllachy Star is number 44 on the Lincoln entries list and you would have to say has little chance of making the ‘first division’ of this contest (where only 22 can take part).- Total Posts 17716
Suited And Booted not in the declerations anymore?
News from William Haggas this morning about his potential 3 runners, he said: "Shamali won’t run this weekend and will either go for the Lincoln or the Magnolia Stakes at Kempton on the same day [April 2]"
The trainer has won the Lincoln three times with High Low (1992), Very Wise (2007) and 12 month ago with Penitent, who could line up alongside Shamali and Kalk Bay."Penitent needs it to rain to bid for a repeat at Doncaster," Haggas added.
"He has the alternative of a Group 3 race at Longchamp [Prix Edmond Blanc] the following day. Kalk Bay worked nicely and we are aiming towards the Lincoln."
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I would not totally underestimate the one-two from last year Penitent and Prime Exhibit, (at least to run well), although the former is burdened with weight and the trainer says needs soft ground so he’s a total no-no, and the latter although still well weighted could be a horse that struggles to get his head in front in the big races I think; constantly running and keeping on he might need further this year.
So I agree with a couple of other posters about Our Joe Mac. Fahey has a strong group of entries and this looks the best of his bunch to me. He stays on in his races as well so he might need further in time but I reckon they’ve conceiled his mark well enough to make him a decent bet here.
Also agree about Medicinal Compound but will he make the cut? One for the concolation race probably.
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