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Flemenstar mostly jumped like a dream. Most likely interpretation is that he simply doesn’t stay; but he didn’t take the last well, and rather lost momentum, also went very wide all around and was keen early on. So I’d give him another chance.
Yeah he said that after the race and that Andrew Lynch advised them to try the longer trip again in the Hennessy…..
But less than an hour ago on the racing post sight….
"Personally I think the Ryanair is a non-entity of a race, and I wouldn’t think after that he’s a Gold Cup horse. You need a two-and a-half miler for the Queen Mother and I think that’s the race for him." (46 mins ago)
Is that a sensible change of heart from Mr Casey and also ruling out going to the Hennessy next?
Yes, tremendous post Ginger beyond belief how you could find the winner by just backing four of the nine runners. Wish I could do that.
At least you broke even Ginger.
Did a lot better than "broke even" Eddie, thanks.
Value Is EverythingIf you have to have a bet there really is only one option here.
Tidal Bay’s run against Bobs Worth is by far the best form on offer. Even at his age he seems to be improving and to boot he is the most certain stayer. Trainer has a great record with his Irish raiders. Despite all that he remains third favourite.
I thought Sir Des Champs was pretty disappointing on his seasonal debut and I not convinced he will suddenly be a better horse over the longer trip. Perhaps at this stage he is a little overrated. Although the style was impressive at Cheltenham not sure how much substance there was to it and previously it had looked as if he would have had plenty on his plate to see off Knockfierna. Not sure if very testing ground is his bag either.
Oh, I see why you reacted that way Stilvi.
Well done Stilvi, and just the one horse tipped too. I am not worthy.
Think it was the analysis Zam was commenting on.
Value Is EverythingThe jockey on Flemenstar didn’t shine, he looks an ideal ride for Ruby Walsh.
Flemenstar always races enthusiastically. If he does it going 2m4f pace he’ll do it even more at 3m pace. Particularly when he’s a natural front/prominent runner running against other natural front/prominent runners. So highly unkilely to get his own way. Nothing to do with a poor ride.
Value Is EverythingI wonder would Flemenstar benefit from wearing a hood? In hindsight perhaps they should just have ridden him as usual today, letting him bowl along. That way one of two things could have happened:
A)
He’d have settled and stayed (happy days)
B)
He’d have fell in a hole and been beaten further than he was today, in which case they’d have two options:
1:
Hold him up for a late run in the Hennessy, and see if he stays that way.
2:
Drop back in trip.
After the way the raced him today they don’t know whether to race him as usual in the Hennessy, or hold him up later in the Hennessy, or forget about the Hennessy altogether.
Damned if I know!
That Flemenstar is a fine specimen with a great jump in him. Yet, as he gained ground at some fences Andrew Lynch negated that by pulling him back, apparently riding him to ‘get the trip’
I’ve never understood this tactic: a horse will either stay or will not. Assuming you don’t try and keep up with a stupidly searing pace, the horse should be ridden in the style which suits it best imo.
A horse gains three lenths: jockey reins him back surrendering two lengths. Where’s the sense and how many times do you do that and at what cost?
I had no strong fancy in the race – backed China Rock because of the value he offered – but I was dismayed to see such a fine horse ridden in that fashion.
I accept he won’t stay the GC trip but had AL taken advantage of his jumping today, who knows? He might have got home.
Still, if he faces S Sacre in the QM, (assuming the doubts about his appetite for travelling are unfounded) it should certainly make for an interesting race – especially if Sanctuaire decides to join in
And well done to all TB backers – he’s some horse. (The Timeform guys must be wearing out their erasers at the moment getting rid of his squiggle) and how the Wylies must now be regretting their blind loyalty to HoJo
It was so frustrating listening to the race on the radio with Des wotsit constantly giving the running order but without saying how many feet, inches, lengths or furlongs were between each runner. Even then it was still pretty exciting. Can’t wait to see the replay [hopefully] on TML tomorrow . Race of the year thus far, must be. And there’s me thinking some of these Irish races are a bit boring and predictable. What do I know [?].Apologies to Des; just saw the race on TRP and he did give the distances sometimes.
Must give credit to Howard for buying him in the first place, though [along with a few other good’uns and assuming he did buy him for GW]. Especially as TB must have been as barmy as a youngster as he is now. Wasn’t it said after his last race that he was in danger of becoming the most popular horse in the country? Well, think he’s there now. Bless him. The Victor Meldrew of the horse world [and nearly as old].
Just saw the race for the first time; omigiddyaunt. How the hell did he get up to win? What a beast; what a magnificent beast of a horse. Off to watch it again….That Flemenstar is a fine specimen with a great jump in him. Yet, as he gained ground at some fences Andrew Lynch negated that by pulling him back, apparently riding him to ‘get the trip’
I’ve never understood this tactic: a horse will either stay or will not. Assuming you don’t try and keep up with a stupidly searing pace, the horse should be ridden in the style which suits it best imo.
A horse gains three lenths: jockey reins him back surrendering two lengths. Where’s the sense and how many times do you do that and at what cost?
I had no strong fancy in the race – backed China Rock because of the value he offered – but I was dismayed to see such a fine horse ridden in that fashion.
I accept he won’t stay the GC trip but had AL taken advantage of his jumping today, who knows? He might have got home.
There were many other horses in the race who also liked to be up there Joe. Some who it’s even more important to lead. Midnight Chase has no other way; so if Flemanstar had been left to go quicker – then Midnight Chase would need to go quicker to keep the lead. Had Flemenstar been allowed by Lynch to go quicker he’d have been beaten sooner. A horse can not do 2m4f pace in a 3m race, particularly on very soft ground. Yes, had the other runners not wanted to go so fast – he could’ve got the lead and relaxed – giving a better chance of staying. But every other jockey knew Flemenstar’s possible flaws; ie stamina and enthusiasm and were not going to make it easy.
Value Is Everythingfirstly what a cracking race secondly well done to those who backed tidal bay as i said in an earlier post i couldnt see him troubling the big two so well done i remeber backing him for the arkle and being at aintree when he won as a novice and thinking he was going to be a world beater and it all went slightly pear shaped he seemed to have fallen out of love with the game and physically looked pained at jumping fences but paul nicholls seems to have worked his magic and a cracking ride by ruby . Of the others how sdc finished as close as he did i will never know he never really jumped never travelled when he gets better ground at cheltenham it should help him and he would still be my pick for the gold cup its hard to know with flemenstar he was my pick for the race today he seemed to run a good race and i thought with half a mile to go he was going to run away from them but jockey took a tug and waited which would make you think there wasnt as much left in the tank as looked still wouldnt give up on him getting the trip with better ground and his jumping is a joy though its a hard one because any other year you would think he would be capable of winning the queen mother if sprinter sacre wasnt in the way as for first lietenant i thought he ran a cracking race if all these turn up for gold cup along with long run bobs worth and silvanico conti etc it should be a cracker
Did anyone else notice how Ruby was riding, pushing, whipping, shoving Tidal Bay into contention from the fourth last to about 100 yards from home…then he put down the ship, hands and heels, and TB just zoomed through the gap?
*runs off and hides*
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Watching the race again how Ruby found the gap in the first place was gutsy riding, But I am wondering what price Sir Des Champs will be for the Gold Cup NRNB because despite making mistakes he did come into it in the closing stages and possibly an extra quarter of a mile would be beneficial on good ground ?
Watching the race again how Ruby found the gap in the first place was gutsy riding, But I am wondering what price Sir Des Champs will be for the Gold Cup NRNB because despite making mistakes he did come into it in the closing stages and possibly an extra quarter of a mile would be beneficial on good ground ?
Given his festival form then certainly only a fool would write him off at this point.
For me though, how First Lieutenant is still as big as 14/1 in places in absolutely beyond me
Bobsworth worthy favourite, but on form, and not far behind are todays first four; there are reasons why each of them might improve. Add in L Run, S.Conti and Last instalment; a mouthwatering prospect.
Bobsworth worthy favourite, but on form, and not far behind are todays first four; there are reasons why each of them might improve. Add in L Run, S.Conti and Last instalment; a mouthwatering prospect.
Personally I can’t have Long Run being anywhere near Gold Cup standard now.
What a star, the old rogue! He’ll do for me. You can keep your Frankels, Red Rums, Dessies et al. That lunge, that tearing between the other two, at the finish, when all hope seemed lost! As they say, he made them look like trees.
Whatever the merits of their rides, none of the jockeys was to blame. Tidal Bay is a faster horse and superior athlete. In comparisons, the others were talking horses. None had returned comparable speed figures. As well as staying any distance, didn’t Tidal Bay once win the Champion Chase?
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