Lemon Tree

[Gerald]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2HcuP2Zs58&feature=fvw

Saturday
6.35 Randwick Snapy Halo
2.35 Newbury Extraterrestrial, naturellement

[Gerald]

3.20 Ayr Gidam Gidam

[Gerald]

These are supposed to be attractively priced horses, that can’t be resisted, will run really well, but won’t win. I thought by putting them in a thread it might force some of them to win, but the gods of fate realised that I was trying to pull off a double bluff. 5th.

[Gerald]

Gosh, I don’t visit this section. There’s a couple of posters I’ve never heard of before, with interesting thread titles as well. Maybe this thread should be renamed Gerald’s drunken Friday night bets.

£26.93 @ 50 Ready To Lift, 4.40am Randwick, 1600m G2 f&m

Gerald Ryan is set to be well represented in the Group Two Emancipation Stakes (1600m) for the mares nominating Beaucoup, Mysterious Light and classy stayer Ready To Lift.

Ready To Lift won the Group Three Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) in the spring but failed to fire in three starts in Melbourne.

Saturday’s race will be her first since she beat just two runners home in the Moonee Valley Cup won by The Sportsman and Ryan has readied her for a return with two barrier trials.

While Ready To Lift is not a noted first-up performer, Ryan has warned punters not to let her under their guard this weekend.

"She has come back terrific. Her two trials have been really good," Ryan said.

"She won first-up after EI over 1200 metres but normally she runs well first-up but doesn’t win. Having said that, she has never run over a mile first-up either."

Ready To Lift is being aimed at the Brisbane Cup for the second consecutive year after finishing runner-up to Scenic Shot in the Group Two staying feature 12 months ago.

[Gerald]

Okay, I’ve been teasing my loyal followers for a whole week now. Here is the version of Lemon Tree that you were expecting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2DWunCunhI

That is a capital i at the end there, not a t !!!

[Gerald]

Operating a bit slowly. Just gotten another one. Not sure whether I should have posted this on the Melbourne Cup, or on a separate Horse Abuse thread, as apparently Andy does the same things to Metal Bender in the middle of the night that Big Buck’s does to Air Force One.

METAL BENDER (NZ) FRONTS NZ DUO IN GR.1 ALL AGED STAKES
Metal Bender (NZ)

Former champion three-year-old on the rise again
1:04 PM Friday Apr 23, 2010

With a fresh-up run over 1200m in the Gr.1 TJ Smith Stakes under his belt, the dual Gr.1 winning galloper Metal Bender (NZ) (Danasinga) will be looking to return to the sort of form which saw him rated as one of the best three-year-old’s in the land on Saturday, when he steps out in the Gr.1 Daily Telegraph All Aged Stakes (1400m).

The highly talented New Zealand-bred galloper returned from a 12-month racetrack absence in the TJ Smith Stakes two weeks ago, and finished a heartening 6th to Melito and Hot Danish.

Metal Bender (NZ) a winner of the Gr.1 Randwick Guineas and Rosehill Guineas as a three-year-old, was being prepared for a Melbourne Cup assault last season when he suffered a stifle bone injury.

Formerly prepared by the late Jack Denham, Metal Bender (NZ) joined leading Sydney trainer Chris Waller’s yard earlier this year, and has impressed his New Zealand-born conditioner with his progress to date.

Waller told NZTM recently that he was taking “each race as it comes” with the son of Danasinga, but was considering a Brisbane winter campaign with the million-dollar earner

He’s a very talented galloper and it will be very exciting if he can get back to where he was as a three-year-old

“We will just see how he comes through each run but we do have a circle around Brisbane in the winter for him,” said Waller.

“We will see how he goes this campaign and all going well he will spell him then come back for Melbourne in the Spring.

“He’s a very talented galloper and it will be very exciting if he can get back to where he was as a three-year-old.”

Meanwhile, Melbourne trainer Mike Moroney believes that his 100-1 chance Mr Baritone (NZ) (Stravinsky) is capable of figuring in the judge’s photo on Saturday.

Mr Baritone (NZ), who has not graced the winner’s enclosure since his triumph in the Gr.1 Stradbroke Handicap 25 starts ago, was fifth to Danleigh in last year’s edition of the $300,000 feature.

”No matter what we point him at he is competitive,” said Mike Moroney.

“He turned his head and missed the start last start in the George Ryder, but if you take it out of the equation his runs have been good.”

Mr Baritone (NZ) was 3rd to Hot Danish in the Gr.2 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) two starts ago, with his two prior outings also yielding placings at stakes level.

£20 @ 33.04 Metal Bender

Rather embarrassingly, he’s already gone back out to 34 in the past few minutes.

[Gerald]

Trainer of Metal Bender has just said the horse is one run away. I suppose I can always lay my bet back.

[Gerald]

Well, that didn’t go well at all.

[Gerald]

Have had a £2 Trifecta on

St Nicholas Abbey
Fencing Master
Awzaan

with a £2 saver Trifecta on

St Nicholas Abbey
Fencing Master
Al Zir

Then decided to be sensible, and have has a £5 combination Exacta on

Al Zir
Awzaan
Fencing Master
St Nicholas Abbey
Viscount Nelson

and a £1 combination trifecta on the same 5 horses.

I’m just a little upset that I’ve done these via my betfair account, and so they’ll show up on my p/l. I had been envisaging for the last year having a big bet at the bookies with my own money, but I can’t be bothered to leave the house.

[Gerald]

Ajaan. Cliff horse, so might as well make it a maximum bet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJ6VCRah … re=related

Erm, I’ll wait until the deccies, just in case.

[Gerald]

Phoenix Rising 04 May 15:32
Races are coming thick and fast now. At Bath, even though she’s pretty badly in at the weights, I’m going to take a chance on Wighthgold. Well backed and ran really well last time on her seasonal debut. She could be out of her depth and she’s carrying a stone more than she ought, but she’s about the only one who might improve. There are loads of races over staying trips for horses rated around 50, as she is, so interesting they are pitching her in here.

At Catterick, the ground looks to be too fast for Sendali to land the hat-trick. Born To Perform is solid but had a very hard race last time. Park’s Prodigy is also solid, but I felt Oddsmaker may have beaten him with a better ride last time and he’s up 6lb.

Two I like at prices are Rare Coincidence and Nayessence. Former looks to be coming to hand, down to a fair mark and conditions are ideal. Should run his race. I think the latter is definitely ahead of the handicapper. I don’t think he does anything in front and was idling all the way up the straight at Wolves last time. The trip is a question mark though, but I think the double-figure price factors that in. The fact that these two are the only front-runners in the race is not lost on me and I am not too enamoured by the prospect of them cutting each others throats. As such, not quite sure what to do yet. Might lay off if it’s apparent they’re going too fast early on. Good luck.

Me2 04 May 15:55
Good luck to YOU, Phoenix.

Only just got home. Bought a computer and a television after work. Need to do the figures for tomorrow’s races, so I’m giving today’s races a miss. I’ll listen to them though. Main bet(only bet) today is Bath 5.30, stalls 7 & 8 (taken a view) , and 13+. Not based on much data though, only 10 races.

Anything posted today and tomorrow morning will disappear when the new forum comes into operation supposedly Wednesday lunchtime, so I’ll save whatever is posted here, and append it when the new forum is up and running.

Me2 04 May 17:17
RACE 36 result

Bath 17:00
1st 1.Callisto Moon 3.29 9/4F
2nd 6.Calculating (IRE) 11.39 8/1
6 ran NR 4
Status: Result

Hadn’t looked at this race. Only realised afterwards that Callisto Moon was one of that stupid duo who went too fast and took each other on at Bath a couple of Sundays ago.

Me2 04 May 17:39
Main bet(only bet) today is Bath 5.30, stalls 7 & 8 (taken a view) , and 13+. Not based on much data though, only 10 races.

Betfair Industry
Bath 17:30
1st 12.West Leake (IRE) 29.00 16/1
2nd 10.Captain Kallis (IRE) 27.21 18/1
3rd 14.Avrilo 26.03 25/1
15 ran NR 11, 9
Status: Finished

Baked beans for supper.

Stalls 11, 6 & 16 , I think.

I think I’m definitely right to oppose the low draws, as they were behind after the first half furlong.

Me2 04 May 18:42
Thought the Bath sprint draw stuff might attract some interest, but maybe people want to keep quiet, so as not to destroy the prices.

RACE 38

Wednesday 5 May 2010

Chester Cup
2m 2f 147y
GOOD
Class 2

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
40 Raincoat
34 Tastahil
32 Ajaan
30 Swingkeel
28 Liszt
28 Som Tala
26 Mamlook
24 Fiulin
24 Nemo Spirit
20 La Vecchia Scuola
18 Halla San
18 Rangefinder
16 Desert Sea
16 Bernie The Bolt
16 Red Cadeaux
12 Majestic Concorde
8 Spring Jim

Dam’s GSV – [2005]
80.42 Raincoat
75.86 Nemo Spirit
74.83 Halla San
73.45 Liszt
72.37 Majestic Concorde
71.75 Red Cadeaux
69.97 Som Tala
69.88 Desert Sea
68.44 Tastahil
66.48 Ajaan
66.25 Rangefinder
64.76 Swingkeel
64.14 Fiulin
61.59 Mamlook
60.07 Spring Jim
54.89 La Vecchia Scuola
49.83 Bernie The Bolt

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.25 Bernie The Bolt
-0.15 Tastahil
-0.07 Swingkeel
0.00 Liszt
0.15 Raincoat
0.17 Rangefinder
0.25 Nemo Spirit
0.38 Mamlook
0.39 Halla San
0.50 Red Cadeaux
0.50 Fiulin
0.55 La Vecchia Scuola
0.56 Ajaan
0.71 Som Tala
0.75 Desert Sea
0.88 Spring Jim
1.00 Majestic Concorde

I’ve already mentioned my selections on the main Chester Cup thread. Swingkeel, Desert Sea, Ajaan, with a saver on Bernie The Bolt. However, for the sake of this thread I was going to do my dubious kind of trends analysis. Would be a Dosage CD of 0.25 or less, G1 1m4f Damsire, Dam’s GSV of 70+, previously won a Class 2 2m+ H’cap, and previously come placed at Chester. Doesn’t fit that all, but I’ve decided the thread bet is £10 Raincoat. Have backed it up with an off-thread bet. Hasn’t won at 2m+, and this is how he fared in the Ormonde Stakes:-
Held up in last place, not clear run from 2f out until headway over 1f out, switched left entering final furlong, gap soon closed and badly hampered, immediately eased (op 11-2 tchd 13-2 in a place)

CMP index
0.52 La Vecchia Scuola
0.53 Fiulin
0.61 Liszt
0.68 Tastahil
0.70 Rangefinder
0.71 Spring Jim
0.74 Som Tala
0.76 Majestic Concorde
0.86 Red Cadeaux
0.91 Bernie The Bolt
0.92 Nemo Spirit
0.94 Raincoat
0.96 Mamlook
1.00 Swingkeel
1.04 Ajaan
1.05 Halla San
1.20 Desert Sea

RP Sire Index
Bernie The Bolt – Milan 16.0 / Broken Hearted 10.1
Nemo Spirit – Daylami 11.4 / Sadler’s Wells 11.3
Majestic Concorde – Definite Article 11.1 / Law Society 11.5
Ajaan – Machiavellian 9.2 / Hernando 12.3
Som Tala – Fantastic Light 10.7 / Alzao 10.3
Liszt – Galileo 11.2 / Spectrum 9.7
Rangefinder – Linamix 10.9 / Risen Star 10.0
Swingkeel – Singspiel 10.5 / Salse 10.4
Raincoat – Barathea 9.6 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
La Vecchia Scuola – Mull Of Kintyre 8.5 / L’Emigrant 10.4
Fiulin – Galileo 11.2 / Indian Ridge 7.7
Tastahil – Singspiel 10.5 / Shaadi 8.1
Halla San – Halling 10.4 / Green Desert 7.9
Red Cadeaux – Cadeaux Genereux 7.8 / Peintre Celebre 10.4
Mamlook – Key of Luck 9.2 / Brief Truce 8.6
Desert Sea – Desert Sun 9.1 / Gilded Time 7.9
Spring Jim – First Trump 8.6 / Dowsing 6.9

Me2 04 May 18:52
I’ve just seen wot I wrote on the other thread!

Raincoat
Ex Gosden/Juddmonte. 2nd to Authorized in the Dante. Unsuccessfully tried over hurdles. I doubt it stays 2 miles.

[Gerald]

Me2 04 May 19:09
Just had a look at the Catterick market, and I like Amir Pasha’s price, so I’ve had a bet off-thread. Surely a horse can be forgiven for not staying in the Ponty Marathon? Respect Micky Hammond, and I like the jockey booking.

Phoenix Rising 04 May 19:16
I’d be worried about that one on fast ground, personally. Rare Coincidence is out now, so Nayessence figures to get an easy lead. Will he stay? Who knows. Worth keeping an eye on when he returns to 12f if he doesn’t get home tonight, however.

Me2 04 May 19:42
RACE 37 result

Betfair Industry
Catterick 19:30
1st 11.They All Laughed 16.00 12/1
2nd 15.Drop The Hammer 42.00 33/1
3rd 5.Amir Pasha (UAE) 16.00 12/1
12 ran NR 2, 14, 10
Status: Result

Me2 04 May 20:03
RACE 39

3.30 Southwell

1m6f AW
Class 5 (0-75)

MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage points
52 Saloon
40 Bivouac
30 Snow’s Ride
26 Essej
26 Three Boars
22 Mehendi
22 Mustajed
18 Dawn Storm
18 Tifoso
16 Sarah’s Boy

Dam’s GSV – [2005]
80.63 Saloon
75.17 Mustajed
73.48 Essej
72.45 Three Boars
71.83 Bivouac
70.05 Sarah’s Boy
69.46 Mehendi
66.77 Snow’s Ride
62.71 Dawn Storm
59.71 Tifoso

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Dosage CD
-0.17 Snow’s Ride
0.00 Mehendi
0.28 Tifoso
0.38 Saloon
0.45 Bivouac
0.63 Sarah’s Boy
0.67 Dawn Storm
0.73 Three Boars
0.77 Mustajed
0.92 Essej

CMP index
0.54 Mehendi
0.56 Snow’s Ride
0.62 Three Boars
0.72 Bivouac
0.75 Tifoso
0.91 Dawn Storm
0.92 Sarah’s Boy
1.05 Essej
1.13 Mustajed
1.28 Saloon

I’ll have a look at this race tomorrow afternoon, and as it is Southwell, I’ll concentrate on those with a CMP index of 0.75 or less. [Although having said that, I haven’t been keeping track of how this measure has been performing at the different tracks. I’ll have a quick check first.]

Racing Post sire index
Snow’s Ride – Hernando 12.3 / Formidable –
Tifoso – Priolo 10.9 / Hickman Creek –
Saloon – Sadler’s Wells 11.3 / Blushing Groom 10.5
Bivouac – Jade Robbery 9.6 / Rainbow Quest 11.1
Dawn Storm – City On A Hill 7.8 / Blushing Flame 12.8
Sarah’s Boy – Nayef 11.0 / Barathea 9.5
Mehendi – Indian Danehill 8.8 / Groom Dancer 10.0
Essej – Aljabr 9.5 / Mr Prospector 8.7
Three Boars – Most Welcome 8.7 / Polish Precedent 9.4
Mustajed – Alhaarth 10.2 / Green Desert 7.9

[Gerald]

Horsesforcourses 04 May 08:05
Hi Plat, good write-up imo.

The two i’ve backed are Desert Sea (trainer form + comes heres fresh are two positives I would add) and Swingkeel (feel the application of cheekpieces could liven him up so hopefully will be slightly more prominent from the off).

Just wonder how well handicapped MJ is but agree he should be well suited to this.

Horsesforcourses 04 May 08:07
Just re-read your comments and see you highlighted the ? about how well handicapped MJ is so fair play to you

Horsesforcourses 04 May 08:08
MC ffs!!! I’m clearly not with it this morning…

Horsesforcourses 04 May 09:14
Having gone through the form again ST is a big ? for me. First time visor could have the desired effect and well weighted/drawn if it does come together.

Horsesforcourses 04 May 09:21
Feck it. Against my better judgement i’ve backed 3 against the field.Always goes wrong when I do this…

Swingkeel @ 12s
Desert Sea @ 16s
Som Tala @ 16s

enjbenjy 04 May 09:25
Judgethemoment looks well weighted with both Swingkeel and Som Tala on last years form and seems closely matched with Desert Sea. Hasn’t shown much last 4 runs but has dropped alarmingly down the handicap. I still prefer Desert Sea over it due to good record fresh and proven course form.

Horsesforcourses 04 May 09:31
+ awesome trainer form for DS.

I expect Som Tala to lead tomorrow given the draw + visor. His record in races where he has led from the off reads 1,1,1.

In a 28 race career he has only won 4 times. Yet 3 of those have been from the front.

LM knows how to judge the pace of these races imo so at 16s he’s got to be saver material imo. Will surely be able to lay off at shorter in running if neccessary.

[Gerald]

Horsesforcourses 04 May 09:32
Can’t see judgethemoment getting in at this late stage tbh.

enjbenjy 04 May 09:33
Ah yeah I forgot it was 17 max.

trev w 04 May 09:35
H…why you not at work ? ;

enjbenjy 04 May 09:36
Desert Sea gone from 14’s to 20’s with Tote sport. I can’t get on it until tomorrow. Will not be happy if it’s price wised.

enjbenjy 04 May 09:41
Must be a mistake on oddschecker’s part. Still 14/1 on site.

Horsesforcourses 04 May 09:51
Hi trev

The reason i’m not at work… is because I became a father on Sunday (little girl)! Two weeks paternity leave which is sweet for Chester assuming I have the energy to study!!

TD_Gunner 04 May 09:52
congrats hfc.

Horsesforcourses 04 May 09:53
Cheers gunner

At what price does Red Cadeaux become a lay?

enjbenjy 04 May 09:53
Congrats!

Horsesforcourses 04 May 09:56
Thanks enjbenjy! Let the sleepless nights begin…

trev w 04 May 09:57
:D get in…nice one H…all the best mate to you & yours..

trev w 04 May 09:59
nice to see your priorities still in place…posting on here and not swooning over some new baby :p

:^0

Horsesforcourses 04 May 10:06
Thanks mate!!

Mother and baby are well so that’s the main thing

Horsesforcourses 04 May 10:07
Just changed a nappy hence delay in posting

But yes, being off for Chester is a brucie

platinni 04 May 10:46
congrats hfc!

yeah ST has tried a few times for this and not done the job. couldnt beat admiral ffs

MC goes well fresh

Horsesforcourses 04 May 11:31
Cheers mate!

Will have a look at MC’s record when fresh…

Horsesforcourses 04 May 13:31
yeah ST has tried a few times for this and not done the job. couldnt beat admiral ffs

Tough ask tbf as he didn’t run that year

Looks like MC might be tipped up by the main man but for me he’s not well enough handicapped being 12lbs higher than his last winning mark (form of which i’m not confident about).

Best of luck though mate (at least you’ve avoided the scatter gun approach )

Horsesforcourses 04 May 13:31
Toooooooooo much bold.

trev w 04 May 14:07
on liszt ap avg 50s

but have gone in now on desert sea 14/1….trainer red hot/ won 1st time out last 2 seasons / good draw / getting wt from the 2 in front of him last yr / decent record for horses returning to pick this up.
same mark as last yr…but maybe its 1st time out when to catch him….all in all a decent e/w bet.

Fela Kuti 04 May 14:35
FWIW I am having an Admiral moment over La Vecchia Scuola. I know it’s been off for some time but I cant seem to get out of my mind the way it scooted away from Super Forman over hurdles a couple of years ago. I still think it could be extremely well handicapped on the flat.

Deep Impact 04 May 17:24
Course Chester
Next Race Wednesday 5th May
Report Date Tuesday 4th May; 16:30
Going Good
GoingStick 7.6

turnip turns 04 May 17:37
Congrats H,glad to hear everybody’s well

Horsesforcourses 04 May 18:00
Cheers tt

nibbledat 04 May 18:01
excellent news h wishing you wells

Horsesforcourses 04 May 18:03
Much appreciated mate Happy days indeed

redal2 04 May 18:06
I’m siding with Bernie The Bolt and Spring Jim at the moment though the Goldie yard is so high in my esteem that they could well pull off a small miracle with La Vecca

turnip turns 04 May 18:16
Spring Jim @40 in the CC,will be my only bet at this meeting,gl small play tbh ;

turnip turns 04 May 18:16
H,AR sends his regards

Charlton2005 04 May 18:21
Horsesforcourses 04 May 09:51
Hi trev

The reason i’m not at work… is because I became a father on Sunday (little girl)! Two weeks paternity leave which is sweet for Chester assuming I have the energy to study!!

Congrats H

Your first? I think you had a step child but quite a bit older.

Anyway, enjoy!

ben10 04 May 18:34
Crongratulations HFC

Not the best race tomorrow, two I’m looking at are Som Tala and Fiulin. ST well drawn, good Chester record but form tailed off massively last year, has given him a good mark though if the new season can lead to a resurgance. Would have liked him to have had a run though to blow away the cobwebs and that is probably holding me back, visor implies they’ve got him ready for it though and aren’t waiting for, say, Newcastle.
Fiulin not well drawn but likes to race prominent so if he can get away will be able to track the leaders on the outside which should be OK for him as he’s not a horse who needs cover as proven by his 3 wins. His Supreme run showed me signs he’s getting back to something like his days when he was Listed class and his trainer is going quite well so worth a chance at a bigger price.

Horsesforcourses 04 May 18:38
Cheers tt.

C2 – spot on mate already ‘father’ to an 8yr old boy whose life i’ve been part of since he was 2. Very rewarding and treat him like my own but clearly missed the baby years so it’s all quite new to me!

He loves his sport which is great for me and now we’ve got a baby girl to complete things.

Horsesforcourses 04 May 18:38
Thank you ben!

[Gerald]

Me2 05 May 15:41
RACE 38 result

Chester 14:45
1st 6.Mamlook (IRE) 8.94 7/1F
2nd 1.Tastahil (IRE) 29.74 22/1
3rd 5.Halla San 11.85 9/1
4th 3.Majestic Concorde (IRE) 18.15 14/1
17 ran
Status: Weighed In

RACE 39 result

Betfair Industry
Southwell 15:30
1st 4.Bivouac (UAE) 4.60 10/3JF
2nd 6.Mehendi (IRE) 17.69 14/1
3rd 8.Sarah’s Boy 4.70 10/3JF
9 ran NR 3
Status: Finished

Eseej has now hung left 4 times in a row at Southwell.

redal2 05 May 15:53
Surely right, me2?

Me2 05 May 19:37
Erm, yes, redal. Hung right. If we had the new forum, I could use one of those blushing faces.

I thought people had given up reading this, as it ain’t generating any winners recently! I’m a bit busy and also tired at the moment, and just going through the motion of doing the numbers mumbo jumbo. Hopefully, once I’ve got my other computer working, and Raceform Interactive working properly, I’ll feel better, and put more effort into this thread.

[Gerald]

Well, its a fortnight since Metal Bender’s trainer said the horse was a run away from running well, and he’s entered in the 6.50am BST, Race 7 G2 at Gold Coast, Saturday.

Gone in. (That’s me, not the horse.)

Snapy Halo is also in the same race, plus another couple of old friends.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyKl5HKbPQs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CB2mLDJdn5A

[Gerald]

A pleasing start to the day, and according to the trainer a few hours ago, there will be a bit more to come.

[Author]

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