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Mal
– going back to your laying system, I have just checked something on Adrian Massey’s site and was quite surprised.
Your system is based on backing Adrian’s 3rd rated in handicap race’s of which
13%
win. There is also some scary prices to contend with.
In all types of races only
14%
of 3rd rated win.
Now the interesting bit is that I looked at the Fate of the Favourites section and only
14%
of 3rd favourites in all races win. The big difference here is that there would not be those really scary prices, (except in 3 runner races where the outsider was a real dog.)
I reckon this may be worthy of further investigation.
Further investigation has taken place.
Adrian Massey custom report
All races 2004-2009Lay 3rd favourites in any type of race as long as there is 10 runners or more and the price is 5/1 or bigger. (The 5/1 is the returned starting price so would expect it to be bigger on the exchanges.)
89% strike rate winning lays.
Longest winning run not known. Adrian peaks out at 30+ consecutive losers. There were 86 of these which means for laying there were 86 runs of 30+ winning lays.
In the same period the longest losing run of lays was 4 of which there were 3.
Food for thought.
evening
Dolus
. . . quantity does not always mean quality.
I think only 4 started fav. but I chose to dive in a little early and then of course everything changed.
It turned out to be a poor day to experiment with but from my point of view it was not about results. I found out I did not enjoy sitting here in front of the screen all afternoon which is SO different from my normal MO.
I like to get my bets down and then get on with the remaider of the day. Oddly enough it reminded me of the short time when I tried laying, it felt stressful when I was fiddling between a loser and the next race etc.
No, not for me.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion , yes i do agree with you as regards the outcome of my system . Its really funny how when you give information away it always kind of back fires on you , im sure its happnd to you .
Using my system the first horse won regardless of the odds but i did not expect 4 loosers as normally you would of had 3 winners.
Using the daily mail you had 7 runners of which 3 won , and the first win was the 3rd horse again not a bad result. I must say the way you solectad gave us the best results , but the winner was the same horse that won but taking us 3 bets to win .
I am going to look at the mail further and check which does give the better results , great posts by the way and really helpfull.Hi Dolus ,
I still think there is something in this as again i layed all the 3rd horses in handycap races , and till the last 2 races i was upp , there was only 1 loss and lucky enough i traded out in running . Now i have just checked my account and i see that the last 2 must of been sucessfull .
Thanks for the time you have put into this i would like to know your gut fealing regarding the best way to go with this system.I have not heard of that one
Mal
thanks, I will put it in the locker especially if his LORDSHIP wins.
its funny this one as i also wrote down all the races which the horse was 78 and the next less than 77 in the ratings , 4 x races and 2 winners and im sure if 1 placed . I am going to watch this one over the next week or so , i might even put the horses up for everyone to see.
‘morning
Mal
,
Yes it has happend to me more times than I care to remember I think it is called SOD’s LAW!
Good luck with your Mail checking, one of the problems I do have with Formcast (Nigel Taylor I think the chap is) is it can be very much in and out. Sometimes it goes on a run which is great and then for no reason I understand the run ends and a barren period begins.
I do wonder if perhaps Mr Taylor goes on holiday or is sick etc. and why I say this is because (and this is in the past, I have not checked of late) when the paper highlights winning days/runs etc. they state Formcast had a winning nap yesterday or NIGEL TAYLOR, Formcast had a winning nap yesterday. This was pointed out to me many years ago but there is no way to check if he has compiled the ratings for any given day.
Talking of Formcast you offered up a little system yesterday which said when top rated is clear of the next rated by 2+ points in handicaps it may signal something worthwhile and so here is today’s selections: –
Nottingham 2.10 SHANNON GOLDEN 14/1
Nottingham 2.50 GARTER KNIGHT 15/2Warwick 12.50 GOLDEN SQUARE 13/2
Warwick 1.20 URSUMMAN 13/2
Kempton 8.20 SILENT ACT 5/2
Best of the early prices taken from Odds CheckerI was going to have a fun bet but with such diverse prices I could not decide how to play them, singles possibly the best way but I thought I would just watch for today.
Billy's Outback Shack
At first glance non of these horses look like they are winners but theres the funny thing , if at first glance i could pick winners i would be a happy chappie .
…….crossed postings I think
Mal
I will leave it to you to put up future selections for the FORMCAST system and as this is a LAYING thread perhaps you can open a different one.
If you are going to differentiate between the points perhaps you could show the margin ie
Course – selections – 3 pts. clear
This I think will help . . .
maybe. . . should . . . perhaps!
Billy's Outback Shack
Been out today, just got back.
Mal wrote:-
i would like to know your gut fealing regarding the best way to go with this system.
Like Billion, I do not like laying. I have tried several times but so far have never found a viable method.
Regardless of the selection method I think that laying to a fixed liability is more comfortable than laying to a fixed win.
Setting a fixed liability, (someone on another thread suggested 5% of the bank for each lay), seems the way to go. You will lose the same no matter what price the horse. It just means the bigger the price the less you win, but should be as good as ‘Preparation H’ for relieving the old bum twitch.
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