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Lay or Back to make a profit in 2 horse markets

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Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
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  • #6309
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Hi all,

    I very rarely use the exchanges to lay, but I know a lot of you (Pete & Insomniac included) do use this facility a lot. To be honest, one of the reasons I hardly use the lay facility is I’m not fully confident I know what I’m doing – but as part of a learning curve, I’ve started using the lay facility in markets where there are only 2 possible outcomes – a snooker match for example.

    Anyway, using a snooker match as an example, my question is, if you back a player at 2.5 and that player goes 3-0 up and is suddenly trading at around 1.3 or something, while the other play drifts out to 3.5 – do you lay some of your originaly bet off (lay at 1.3) or do you back the other guy (back at 3.5)?

    Alternatively, if you lay a player at the start of the match at 1.25 and he goes 3-0 down and drifts to 3.5, do you back him, or do you lay the other player who would now be much shorter?

    Is there any significant difference in what you do – I would imagine there isn’t in markets where there are only two possible outcomes.

    Any advice would be most welcome.

    Mike

    #136223
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Marb,

    I probably ballsed all the above terminology up and the scenarios so just ignore me lol. But thanks for your reply anyway, much appreciated.

    As an even better example of what I meant was today’s Snooker.

    I backed Stephen Lee at 2.95 before the match, and he went 3-0 up. When he went 3-0 up he was trading at 1.25 or thereabouts, while Ebdon went out to 4.5.

    Normally, as I did today, I just leave the bet and as it happened Lee won easy so I collected at odds of 2.95 (less commission of course). But at 3-0 up, I can put myself in a WIN-WIN situation by either backing Ebdon at 4.5 (now I’ve got 2 players backed at odds against) or I can Lay Lee to lose at 1.25, so if Ebdon does make a come back, I still collect as I’ve layed Lee at such short odds.

    What I’m trying to work out, in a situation like the above – do you lay Lee at 1.25 or do you back Ebdon at 4.5 – or does it not make one blind bit of difference lol.

    Mike

    #136246
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Ah I get you now, I thought you’d know most of this stuff being a betfair writer!

    .

    Believe me mate, I’ve been a sports freak all my life, but in terms of betting, I’ve only ever been interested in backing. Of course, I know what laying means, and how it works and I even myself lay rather than back – but I was just interested to know, given the scenario I said, what people would do.

    I would only ever lay to put myself in a win win situation, and I’m the first to admit I’m a bit ring rusty when it comes to this. For example, I would start of in a golf tournament by backing golfers – I would only ever lay them if the odds became so short that I could put myself in a win win situation.

    Thanks for all your input Marb, it’s much appreciated.

    Mike

    #136251
    insomniac
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Hi Mikky.
    What should you do?
    Depends what you wanted when you placed the first bet.
    Did you want to profit from the bet or profit from a trade (and thus be able to sit back and let events unfold with a profit whatever happens?).
    The maths look after themselves. I never bet on snooker, but would imagine that you’d go "all green" to the same percentage whether you laid a player you’d initially backed whos price had shortened, or backed the opponent at his now longer odds. The market will always be betting around 100% if it’s anything like football.
    For what it’s worth, how about acknowledging before you first bet just how much you want to win. If your selection goes x frames up, can you trade-out and still get your intended profit on all/either outcome? If not wait until you can.
    Okay, so that position might never arise and you may miss out on taking SOME if not all your hoped for profit, but that’s the fun and the devil in exchange betting..

    #136269
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Anyway, using a snooker match as an example, my question is, if you back a player at 2.5 and that player goes 3-0 up and is suddenly trading at around 1.3 or something, while the other play drifts out to 3.5 – do you lay some of your originaly bet off (lay at 1.3) or do you back the other guy (back at 3.5)?

    Alternatively, if you lay a player at the start of the match at 1.25 and he goes 3-0 down and drifts to 3.5, do you back him, or do you lay the other player who would now be much shorter?

    I think I understand what you are asking Mike. It depends on the liquidity in the event but if it is good then there is usually only about 1% difference in laying off your bet or backing the other player.

    An example is tomorrow’s snooker game on Selby v Doherty. Let’s say you want to bet £100 on Doherty to win. The present odds on BF are 2.22 to back or 1.81 to lay Selby to not win. £100 on Doherty to win gives a profit of £122. If you lay Selby to not win then your profit would be £123.46 ( £100 divided by 1.81 ). These figs are before comm’n is taken into account. In this case then it will be better to lay Selby. As I say there is usually only 1% in it as long as there is plenty of liquidity.

    I know this example is at the start of the event but the same principles apply in running – the problem is that the in running market moves so quickly that it is difficult to work out which is best quickly. You need a calculator, good maths and a quick brain…..out of those three, I only have the calculator.

    So I don’t worry about it and I will lay off my bet on the player I’ve backed or bet on a player if I’ve laid him to not win.

    Hope this helps……probably as clear as mud !

    By the way I’ve tried betting in running on the darts and snooker recently. In the darts I was useless and in the snooker this week I’ve been even worse – think I’ll stick to the in running on the soccer :)

    Pete

    #136272
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Great answers guys, many thanks.

    Do I want to profit from the bet or profit from the trade? Excellent question insomniac.

    The thing with me, when I place a sports bet, I place with confidence thinking that my selection will win – so I dare say I bet to make a profit.

    As an example, I backed Lee today because I was very confident he would win, so when he went 3-0 up then I’m even more confident – so like Marb said, why do anything else, just let the bet ride.

    The reason I asked the question is because these days there is this marvellous opportunity for us to trade off and put ourselves in a win win situation.

    It’s a toughie, do I stick to my old routine of simply trying to back winners, or do I learn more about trading to ensure I can make a profit whenever the opportunity arises – I’m a bit like Pete, I’ve only got the calculator for now :lol: .

    Cheers for all your input, I’m very grateful.

    Mike

    #136291
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    If you are still confident in your original selection, then you could lay off just enough to cover your original stake – ie you will then have a free bet on your original selection, albeit at slightly less odss.

    eg (ignoring commission) – back a snooker player at 4.0 (say £10) so you will win £30 if he wins and lose £10 if he loses. He then goes 3-0 up and his price is now 1.25. So you lay him to WIN back your £10 stake, which costs you £2.50. So now you have a bet on your original selection whereby you will win £27.50 if he wins and lose nothing (apart from your temper if he blows a 3-0 lead of course) if he loses.

    BTW – in a 2 horse race like snooker, tennis etc, backing the 2nd selection doesn’t use up additional funds as a previous poster suggested.

    A tip is to make sure you have the "show possible outcomes if bets are matched" option ticked in Betfair.

    #136382
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Some very good points on this thread.

    FWIW, if I’m trading I tend to trade on the one player in order to make a green book. It just makes the maths easier to me. So that’s the advice I offer Mike, in a 100% book backing or laying amounts to the same so just do whatever you feel most comfortable with arithmetically.

    You also seem a bit daunted by the whole laying system. At first I was the same, so when I first started trading I stuck to very small stakes (normally the £2 minimum) until I got a feel for it.

    #136406
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Im very daunted about the whole laying system Friggo :shock:

    I know how it works and how to do it, but I’m not certain I’m doing the right thing to get the best possible outcome.

    If I really fancy something, I know how to back it, if I really don’t fancy something, I know how to lay it – it’s when I back something, only to see the odds shorten and the opportunity to lay to guarantee a profit arises, well then I panic slightly and I’m not sure of the maths. Believe it or not I love maths and I have an A Level in it. I also love betting and odds so it all should be easy for me – but it isn’t lol.

    I dare say that I’m also a bit put off by the fact that when this situation has arisen in the past and I’ve layed to make a profit, my original selection has won and I’m left thinking that I’ve just wasted money by laying my original selection lol.

    Any advice or tutorials would be gratefully received. The betfair tutorial for laying really is basic and a five year old kid could understand it. I guess it’s a tutorial in trading, rather than laying, that I need.

    Mike

    ps: Thanks for everyone on this thread who have contributed and give their valued advice and thoughts.

    #136442
    insomniac
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Mikky, are you happy using a spreadsheet?
    It makes life a lot easier when trying to calculate what price to go in at on Betfair.

    #136450
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Mikky, are you happy using a spreadsheet?
    It makes life a lot easier when trying to calculate what price to go in at on Betfair.

    Hi Insomniac,

    I’m just replying as not to appear ignorant as I’m just off out and won’t be back until Monday morning. But yes, I am familiar with Spreadsheets and can use them no problems – so if you have any further advice then great. I will reply on Monday.

    Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.

    Mike

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