Lateral Thinking

[GH]

Do any others suffer from "Eureka-itis" (the "I have found it! – No I haven’t" syndrome)?

In order not to fall into this trap again, I decided to apply a bit of lateral thinking. I posed the question, "What if I backed the winner in every race?". I decided to back every horse in four horse races.<br>I checked back through some previous results, as follows :

The figure in brackets is the position the paper’s betting forecast.<br>          W10/1 (3)<br>          W4/5   (1)<br>          W5/6   (1)<br>          W9/4   (2)<br>          W1/11 (1)<br>          W11/1 (4)<br>          W5/4   (2)<br>          W5/2   (2)<br>          W7/1   (2)<br>          W12/1 (4)<br>          W2/1   (1)<br>          W2/1   (1)<br>          W1/1   (1)<br>          W7/1   (3)<br>          W13/2 (3)<br>          W1/2   (1)<br>          W9/2   (2)<br>          W1/2   (1)<br>          W4/5   (1)<br>          W9/4   (2)<br>          W2/1   (2)<br>          W6/5   (2)

I added it up, Won 77.97, Lost 66 = +11.97 to level stakes – Now where did I put those round the world cruise brochures? :cool:

The following night I checked some more results, as follows:

         W6/4   (2)<br>          W4/7   (1)<br>          W2/5   (1)<br>          W2/5   (1)<br>          W20/1 (4)<br>          W9/4   (2)<br>          W5/2   (3)<br>          W4/6   (1)<br>          W2/1   (2)<br>          W6/4   (2)<br>          W1/8   (1)<br>          W11/10(3)<br>          W2/11  (1)<br>          W10/11(1)<br>          W7/2   (2)<br>          W4/11 (1)<br>          W2/5   (1)<br>          W7/4   (2)<br>          W7/4   (1)<br>          W2/1   (2)<br>          W4/11 (1)<br>          W5/6   (2)<br>          W5/4   (2)<br>         <br>I knew before I added it up! Won 46.3, Lost 69 = -22.7 to level stakes – Oh well back to the day job! At least for a while I basked in the thought that I had 100% strike rate (per race). I know everyone will say that it could never make a profit because of the bookmaker’s "book" but you can but dream. :(<br>

[william winalot]

GH.

Why don’t you see if there is a pattern to the selections.

For example,

What price was the Fav as against the 2nd Fav.<br>What price the outsider of the 4.<br>How many horses were in the 1st 3 L.T.O

Try different tactics to see how the results differ.

Good Luck.

<br>P.S<br>There were 22 Bets X 4 Bets per race=88.

You state that the returns were 77 points,that would make a LOSS of 11 points,not a PROFIT of 11 points.

GH>>>Back to the drawing board,I’m afraid.

<br>

(Edited by william winalot at 8:02 pm on Oct. 13, 2003)

[snowman]

William you have misunderstood GH’s post. He doesn’t state the returns were 77.97, but the winnings. 77.97pts is the PROFIT on the 22 winners and of course he is correct to say that his losers would be 3 horses X 22 races i.e. 66pts

Hence a profit of 11.97pts

[william winalot]

Snowman.

I did’nt check the results,to busy.

I’ll take your word for  it.

Thanks.

[tttracing]

Hi GH,

try backing the first 2 favourites in the market, of your 4 runner races, and concentrate on non-handicaps. it might be a bit more worthwhile?!

[william winalot]

GH.

I backed EVERY Favorite at every meeting on a Saturday,<br>and showed a good profit.

I am sure this is something like you are trying to acheive.

Check for patterns.

Good Luck in your ventures.

(Edited by william winalot at 10:40 pm on Oct. 19, 2003)

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