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Was a lay today based on trainers comments but I have to say, he ran a pretty excellent race and he should come on an awful lot for that.
SHL
It was a very pleasing return indeed. That he came out best on weights and could very feasibly find upwards of 10lbs on that, he would be right in the Ryanair mix. Especially as Colin Tizzard seems intent on running Cue Card in the wrong race. Plus, he goes on any ground which is a huge bonus.
However, my biggest concern with Last Instalment is his fragility. Yesterday was only his tenth start under rules and that was his second long layoff (he was off for 326 days after his bumper debut).
At this stage, he still seems to be one of those horses who could go either way.
I will be very surprised if they are even considering the Ryanair. It made sense to begin again over a shorter trip but the horse has always shaped like a thorough stayer.
I suspect you could be right given that the next port of call is the Hennessy. Although that he’s been entered for the Ryanair suggests that it is, at least, under consideration.
I was just following the train of thought where they’d like to win the owner’s race with last year’s runner up. Particularly as they already have First Lieutenant for the Gold Cup. Yet this would have made a lot more sense were Sir Des Champs still in the picture.
We’ll hopefully know a bit more after the Hennessy but I wouldn’t rule out either race. Perhaps Ryanair if soft, Gold Cup second-string if good?
Apologies, I didn’t realise they had given him the Ryanair entry.
All of this may be hypothetical if Last Instalment doesn’t perform in his ‘trial’ race but at the moment I would have him running in the Gold Cup and First Lieutenant in the Ryanair. I think First Lieutenant’s optimum is probably three miles on good ground, anything more testing would be stretching him. He has run plenty of good races but doesn’t have the potential of Last Instalment.
For purely selfish reasons I would like to see them both in the Gold Cup with Bryan Cooper taking the ride on Last Instalment. That would probably ‘free-up’ Cooper to also ride Benefficient in the Ryanair.
I suspect you could be right given that the next port of call is the Hennessy. Although that he’s been entered for the Ryanair suggests that it is, at least, under consideration.
I was just following the train of thought where they’d like to win the owner’s race with last year’s runner up. Particularly as they already have First Lieutenant for the Gold Cup. Yet this would have made a lot more sense were Sir Des Champs still in the picture.
We’ll hopefully know a bit more after the Hennessy but I wouldn’t rule out either race. Perhaps Ryanair if soft, Gold Cup second-string if good?
Was a very pleasing return to action for Last Instalment alright, just run out of it in the finish. However I would think that he won’t run in any race that has the word ‘good’ in the going description given his fragility. He’s been brilliant on soft in the past and it was after his run on decent ground in the Moriarty tha his problems began. There’s decent value in Bet365’s 40/1 for the Gold Cup imo, as he’ll only run if he runs well in the Hennessy, in which case he won’t be 40/1. Also, he’ll only run if it’s soft, which would further increase his chances. If he places in the Hennessy and the ground does come up soft he’ll probably be 16/1?
Brilliant performance, the two Gigginstown horses ran almost the exact same race as when they met as novices over the same course and distance.
Wish I’d taken some of the 50 or 40/1 NRNB now
Great to see a top race won with a spectacular jumping performance. That doesn’t happen very often.
Credit to both jockey and trainer.
Hopefully, he will make it to Cheltenham in similar form.
Stopped off at the bookies on my way back from town today to see the race; said to the guy next to me ‘wish I’d backed him for the Gold Cup now’ to which he replied ‘I have; 50/1’. Couldn’t believe it when I then heard that Tidal Bay had come second.
Great to see a top race won with a spectacular jumping performance.
O’Connell did the right letting him stride on, too often horses are reined in after good jumps, for example Flementar in his three mile races last season. A very good ride imo.
Not a good ride by AP in the Moriarty.
Absolute nonsense. His horse was squeezed up by Don Cossack jumping to his left and didn’t have enough room to jump the fence. Very unlucky but no way a bad ride
Absolutely superb jumping performance by Last Instalment. On a line thru First Lieutenant, Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend, LI comes out as slightly better than Bobsworth, I think, and when his traner was interviewed beforehand, he suggested he’d improve for the run. Can’t quite see him winning the GC, but great to have another piece in the puzzle
Great to see a top race won with a spectacular jumping performance.
O’Connell did the right letting him stride on, too often horses are reined in after good jumps, for example Flementar in his three mile races last season. A very good ride imo.
I have always liked O’Connell even in the days when he took so much stick over his riding of Dunguib. Unfortunately, his career hasn’t progressed but we all know there are a limited number of high profile rides for the second tier jockeys. Personally, I think he would have been a very good choice for the Connell retainer.
If Last Instalment were mine he would keep the ride but we know that isn’t going to happen.
A fine ride indeed on LI, which I think might not have been taken fully into account in the post-race reaction, especially by the bookmakers.
I suspect he is not quite as good as he looked today.
Agreed SC!
With the winner getting a good ride, First Lieutenant seemed to get an experimental one. He was ridden with a little more restraint that usual, which probably didn’t suit a horse who just grinds on at the same pace.
If you like Last Instalment’s Gold Cup chances, you also have to trust Phillip Fenton to get him to Cheltenham in the same condition. Since he is a trainer with a history of getting his best horses injured, a month until Cheltenham could feel like a very long time.
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