- This topic has 17 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
.
- Posts
An excellent staying hurdle pitting some of the principals from the World Hurdle against the home defence.
Blazing Bailey is an obvious favourite after his good defeat of the champ Inglis Drever at Aintree. I see him more as a dour stayer than a speed horse however and worry that he may get done for toe around here on probable good ground- the surface rode a bit slower at Aintree and there was serious pace on, the long straight there suited him too- I’m against him tomorrow.
Kazal ran a fine third in the World Hurdle but I think he needs more give than he’s llikely to get tomorrow. If he wins I may throw myself off Ruby’s Double having meant to back him at Ladbrokes 14/1 NRNB ages ago, but on balance I’m against him too.
Cooldine has been superbly campaigned but is making a big step up in class here-I think he’s plenty short enough given what he needs to find to win this.
Venalmar is a horse I love and a fantastic chasing prospect for next season. He too needs significant improvement to win but can’t be ruled out- he was the best horse in the Ballymore for me but like Kazal might like it softer.
Aitmatov was ultimately well beaten at Cheltenham but travelled well for a long way. I think he’ll get the trip OK around here and love the ground. He was seriously impressive here the day Sizing Europe fell, when he’d have given him a race and if his stamina lasts I can see him arriving with Carberry’s ass in the air turning in. At 9/1 tonight or better tomorrow, he’s a bet for me.
Refinement is a moody thing and has won here before but needs a career best at age 9 to win- not for me. Catch Me is a big stamina doubt and wants it soft. Faasel will run on past beaten horses but is a dog, the rest look outclassed.Dunno about your Kazal theory, carvills.
IMO, his best two performances (Boyne and Stayers Hurdles) have come on much quicker ground that he was routinely winning on as a novice, and it might just be that quicker ground is starting to bring out the best in him.
Dunno that I’d be rushing to back him at 4/1 though.
I fancy Kerryhead Windfarm to be placed in this race. Not really good enough to win it but form figures over hurdles at Punchestown of 12122 incl 2nd in this race 2 years ago at 100/1! Chasing career came to nothing and I’d say Adrian Maguire has had this race in mind for a while to pick up some prize money. 25/1 at the moment but hopefully get some 33s tomorrow morning (can’t see him being cut on the back of my say-so anyway)
The race of the meeting for me, I reckon Kazal is value against BB. He ran an absolute stormer at Cheltenham, is improving and has been targeted for this. He should be ok with the dryer ground. 14/1 would have been Christmas carvills.
I think Blazing Bailey is as big a certainty for this as Neptune Collonges was yesterday, the only difference being the likely SP. The 4/1 currently available with Ladbrokes is massive in my eyes and on a track that will suit I can’t see Kazal and co. having enough to match him late on.
If there was an absolute deluge between now and 4.50 tomorrow then you could give Cooldine a chance, and if the sun decides to shine and bakes the Irish turf then Catch Me may come into it, but away from those extremes it’s Blazing Bailey’s race to lose.
Strange theory Grassy- his wins have come on heavy, soft/heavy, soft/heavy, soft, heavy, heavy and soft (Boyne Hurdle). For me he ran well at Cheltenham on ground that was just about soft enough for him with the hill bringing stamina into play- I think he’ll struggle to lie up on the second circuit tomorrow.
Spookily enough, the 9/1 has disappeared since I put this thread up…..I’m in the Kazal camp aswell and don’t think the ground will have any bearing on it. I see it being between Blazing Bailey and Kazal and with Kazal possibly being slightly the fresher of the two, I see no reason why he shouldn’t finish in front of Blazing Bailey again.
Hmmm, I am of the opinion that this is a race to watch. Will not be surprised if we get a funny result here.
Unknown quantities (for some runners in these conditions), and end of season afterthoughts.
I much prefer the make up of Friday’s Champion Hurdle *hint*.
Zip
I’ve found Mr Segal’s secret- he’s reading my threads…I’m putting up a dud tomorrow to check!
Not very original but I have backed Blazing Bailey EW at 4/1 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-2-3) on the basis that he might get beat by one other, but on all known form, he won’t get beat by three others in this race, and he looked as good as ever last-time out. An each way theaves’ bet.
a lot of people going for Kazal 5/1 huge price
Venalmar e/w looks like he is going to be a decent prospect (his form did tak a slight knock this week all ready albeit over shorter distance)
Refinement also running well of late and won here last year…
great race…
Slight preference for Kazal over Blazing Bailey simply down to the fact that King hasn’t had a winner in over a week with c. 50 runners getting beaten in that time.
Granted horses like Halcon Genelardais have run well enough but I just wonder whether the stable has peaked for the season in general.
Lee
I see Footy Facts has come out – presumably because of the ground. Doesn’t look too good for Catch Me even if he did stay.
Get in ya bugger…
All credit to Choc Thornton for persevering with him when he looked to be drastically outpaced. Superb effort.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.