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  • #2010
    aidanldrebin
    Member
    • Total Posts 171

    I was wondering what everyones opinion was on the race. Do we know enough about these Aussie horses or are we just comparing every horse to Choisir. I know there big races are mainly over short trips and they have some good horses. Takeover Target was a good winner last season but, I feel this years renewal is far stronger and I feel Benbaun and Enticing look very good bets. What does everyone else think?

    #64960
    Zorro
    Member
    • Total Posts 472

    Benbaun looks better than last year, but they say Takeover Target is too. Miss Andretti is better than Takeover Target in Australia, and she’s travelled well. She’s never lost a five furlong race.

    #64961
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    As long as the word soft isn’t in the description of the going, I’ll be hoping Enticing will have the class to beat all-comers – Aussies and all.

    #64962
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from Zorro on 9:17 pm on June 15, 2007[br]. Miss Andretti is better than Takeover Target in Australia, and she’s travelled well. She’s never lost a five furlong race.<br>

    Zorro

    Neither has Takeover Target – and he’s proven away from Ozz.<br>On what grounds is Miss Andretti better?

    #64964
    Zorro
    Member
    • Total Posts 472

    Reet Hard, on a strict line through Gold Edition she’s no better than Takeover Target, allowances considered, but it took TT a long time to wear Gold Edition down over 7f, which is probably not GE’s best trip. Miss Andretti’s’s faster over 5f, and unless the draw goes wrong I’m sure she’ll have too much pace for him over that trip.<br> Although I won’t be stunned, and nor will some Aussies be, if I’m wrong. I’m not qualified to contradict their opinion that he’s better this year than he was in 2006.<br>I’m less confident about the Golden Jubilee, but only slightly. I think Bentley Biscuit rather than TT is the one worry about there.  

    #64965
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I’ve had my biggest bet for a while with Billy Hills who offered 10/11 an Aussie winner of either of the 2 sprints. I make them about that price to win the first leg! Have also backed Benbaun at 10/1 as a saver. Was deeply impressed by Bentley Biscuit in his last run- would say he will be better at 6 judged on that though.<br>As a corollory, does anyone know how to work out the odds of either event or both of two occuring given the prices of each? For example the Aussies coupled are about evens and 6/4 for the two sprints, so what is the true price of them winning either or both?

    #64967
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from Zorro on 11:46 pm on June 15, 2007[br]Reet Hard, on a strict line through Gold Edition she’s no better than Takeover Target, allowances considered, but it took TT a long time to wear Gold Edition down over 7f, which is probably not GE’s best trip. Miss Andretti’s’s faster over 5f, and unless the draw goes wrong I’m sure she’ll have too much pace for him over that trip.<br> Although I won’t be stunned, and nor will some Aussies be, if I’m wrong. I’m not qualified to contradict their opinion that he’s better this year than he was in 2006.<br>I’m less confident about the Golden Jubilee, but only slightly. I think Bentley Biscuit rather than TT is the one worry about there.  <br>

    Z

    Aren’t you rather assuming that Takeover Target, (by your use of his defeat of Gold Edition), is as good over 7f as shorter? Purely on his UK runs- he is better over 5f than 6, which suggests he may not be the same horse over 7. (I know what I mean, anyway :biggrin:).<br>Also, though I know nothing about Australian courses or speed ratings, hasn’t TT clocked a faster 5f (at Flemington) than Miss Andretti has ever run in her life?<br>I do agree with Carvills though, that they are less than evens to win this heat, which makes Hills offer look a rare gift from that particular quarter.

    #64968
    Zorro
    Member
    • Total Posts 472

    OK TDK. But this year’s Australian ‘team’ is a lot stronger than last year’s.

    #64969
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Takeover Target is Australis third string if you will.

    As mentioned above Miss A is unbeaten over the minimum trip and the Biscuit has already beaten TT quite easily twice this year.

    #64970
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Quote: from carvillshill on 2:14 am on June 16, 2007[br]I’ve had my biggest bet for a while with Billy Hills who offered 10/11 an Aussie winner of either of the 2 sprints. I make them about that price to win the first leg! Have also backed Benbaun at 10/1 as a saver. Was deeply impressed by Bentley Biscuit in his last run- would say he will be better at 6 judged on that though.<br>As a corollory, does anyone know how to work out the odds of either event or both of two occuring given the prices of each? For example the Aussies coupled are about evens and 6/4 for the two sprints, so what is the true price of them winning either or both?<br>

    I presume that dutching will give you the "true" price for winning either leg (this makes it 1.11 to me using evs & 6/4) and a straight accumulator for both legs (which is 4/1)

    #64971
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    So what you’re saying is that I’ve got almost evens a 9/1 on chance! <br>Is this the true way of calculating it though, it seems too short to me.<br>Surely dutching only works on two prices against the same event, not on two separate events. I had estimated it at the percentage in the first leg plus half the percentage in the second leg, but that was just a guess.<br>Given that they now offer 2.62 no winner on the website, that suggests that the inverse of that, about 8/13, is the true price now of my bet. That feels about right.<br>I had a panic attack yesterday evening as the Hills website now offers prices on 0,1 or 2 Aussie winners. No such alternatives were offered when I placed my bet. Thankfully their customer service guy confirms I’m a winner if they win either or both.

    <br>

    (Edited by carvillshill at 1:34 pm on June 16, 2007)

    #64972
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    My maths genius brother-in-law had the answer to the true odds of one or other or both of 2 events occurring. The trick is to calculate the odds of failure (i.e. neither occurring) and subtract from 1. In this case if the true odds are 1/1 and 6/4, the probabiility of failure in the first leg  (1/2) multiplied by failure in the second (3/5) gives 3/10, so the odds of winning are 7/10, 0r a shade less than 8/11. <br>Ladbrokes went 2/1 no Aussie winner this morning but my 3 pronged attack by net, phone and shop managed to get a grand total of 135 quid on, so I’m still barracking for the Antipodeans….<br>

    #64973
    Money on
    Member
    • Total Posts 178

    Dandy Man the forgotten horse imo, He was visually very impressive against poor opposition in his 1st win of the season. He was arguably very unlucky in the race last year with being on the wrong side. Last days run is best forgotten as the ground was still alittle too slow for him. He will get his ground on Tues if there is no rain between now and then and he will take a hell of a beating

    #64974
    Danny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    I fancy King Orchisios Each Way 40/1 is a big price in my opinion considering the horse has won its last few races, negatively these were on the A.W and in lower class races to the Kings Stand but i still think it could surprise a few people and run into a place.

    #64975
    madman marz
    Member
    • Total Posts 707

    Quote: from Money on on 9:14 pm on June 17, 2007[br]Dandy Man the forgotten horse imo, He was visually very impressive against poor opposition in his 1st win of the season. He was arguably very unlucky in the race last year with being on the wrong side. Last days run is best forgotten as the ground was still alittle too slow for him. He will get his ground on Tues if there is no rain between now and then and he will take a hell of a beating<br>

    Will he get his ground???

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