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I’ve been a fan of SIGNS OF BLESSING, along with a few others that had
commented in this thread (good luck botchy with those cracking prices). I’ve not done well
out of him as yet, he pulled out of a race (can’t remember for the life of me what one it was)
before the Champions Sprint Stakes last year, and lost my ante post on him. I again backed him
for the Champions Sprint, and I thought he had it won, only to fade right at the death. He looks
in sparkling form and with a furlong less than last year I can see him being really hard to peg
back. I think the ground will be okay, although I’d rather they had had a little rain to bring
it back to good.I was hoping you had not given up on him BigG, hopefully 5 is the making of him this year and we catch him at some point. Could well be an avatar changing moment if he comes in today
I did Lady Aurelia at 4/1. On balance I feel she will take the beating. I was tempted at 6/1 earlier but wanted to see who would show.
It’s only the one Group 1 Marsha has won. Her last race won’t be good enough here. It hasn’t worked out well. Most of them were beaten by Priceless next time and Marsha’s form is tied with Washington DC, hardly Mr Consistency.
I think Lady Aurelia will be too fast for all of them. I feel her win last time came despite it being far from ideal conditions. She looks big and powerful still. She could be a class apart looking to have trained on well enough for a relatively early season target.
There is a lot of dross in this field.
Can’t see how you can say Marsha’s form “hasn’t worked out well”, Steve.
How the races were run sometimes makes a difference to lengths beaten but here’s a strict working out of form how I see it:Palace House Form:
1 Marsha 9-7
2 Washington DC neck 9-3
3 Goldream 1 length 9-3
4 Katchy 1 1/2 lengths 9-3
5 Priceless Short Head 9-0Marsha carried a 7 lb penalty for winning a Group 1. Plus the neck, means she has 8 lbs in hand of Washington DC here and 12 lbs with Goldream.
It’s true that WDC disappointed at Haydock, but not all horses run to form. The Palace House “form” was actually significantly bolstered by the Temple placed horses.
Temple:
1 Priceless 9-1
2 Goldream 1/2 length 9-4
3 Alpha Delphini neck 9-4
4 Final Venture 1 1/2 lengths 9-4
5 Katchy 1/2 length 9-4Goldream beat Katchy 1 1/2 lengths at Newmarket and 2 1/4 at Haydock; so it seems they ran within 3/4 of length either way. Priceless did not run to form in the Palace House, but has a little over 18 lbs beating to turn around there; but there is a better form line to judge Priceless compared to Marsha… Goldream finishing just 1/2 length behind the winner (1/2 lenghth = 2 lbs @ 5f) means on that form Priceless has 10 lbs to find on Marsha (Goldream’s 8 lbs + the 2). Alpha Delphini seems to be improving, but on this Goldream form line has 11 lbs to find on Marsha, Final Venture 17 lbs. Or to put it another way, on form Marsha would’ve won the Temple by 2 1/2 lengths at these weights. Not bad for “form not worked out”.
If on the other hand the 3/4 length difference between Goldream and Katchy means Katchy ran to form and Goldrem improved from Newmarket to Haydock… then 3/4 length = 3 lbs at 5f. So all those figures -3 means on the line through Katchy Priceless still has 7 lbs (1 3/4 lenths) to make up on Marsha; Goldream 9 lbs, Alpha Delphini 8 lbs and Final Venture 14.
My methods are my own Mark. You know that by now surely.
Good to see you back here.
I just feel that if there is a real class horse in the race it could be Lady Aurelia. The slight doubt last season in the Queen Mary was the rain softened ground and I pointed out in my original post regarding the filly what she has a remarkably low action. I think she will fly along this straight 5F today and if they hold Marsha up she may have a lot more ground to make up than normal.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Course record in the Queen Anne. You’re at least drawing live here Middle Of March.
I’ve finally got my price on the Lady Aurelia track record.
2 bookies offered odds.. Hills at 20s and Paddy Power at 25/1.
So I’m on the latter.
Fast ground over 5f. Is she just going to rip them apart straight from the start? I think so.
You’ve probably got good value there, MOM. But course records depend on how firm the ground is and how much pace is in the race; as much as how good the horse is. Not sure Lady A will lead though, with Take Cover, Just Glamorous and Signs Of blessing as well as a couple of others who like to lead/race prominently… On paper does look quite a bit of pace up front, although often connections can see a possible pace burn up and change tactics… leading to a slower pace than anticipated. Last year’s Lady Aurelia appendages are left off here just as they were for a winning reappearance where not making the running. Having said that, she’s got the rail this time and most of the other early pace appears to be up the centre – so may have to make her own running in her part of the course if Frankie keeps straight.
With luck in running one of the two fillies should win. Marsha won with a pen’ on reappearance (despite little stable confidence and should come on/improve). Be hard to beat if it wasn’t for the drugs at Wes’s disposal. Surprise surprise, trainer’s in wonderful form coming in to Royal Ascot and both he and the Lady obviously like this time of year.
Her 2016 Royal Ascot run unbelievable for a 2 year old filly in June… well, would be from any other yard. Yet another overly-mature 2 year old from this American stable. In my book fair odds are 11/4 Marsha and 3/1 Lady Aurelia. ie odds-on one of the two winning. At the prices I’ve backed Aurelia 4/1 and Signs Of Blessing 13/2 (prominent runner) just in case of a slow pace and LA is held up; saved on Marsha 7/2 (who will be held up). However, in this medieval battle – despite my investment – I’ll be cheering on Sir Mark Of Newmarket to beat the King Of Clenbuterol.My theory being that from when I placed that bet, no rain was forecast. Ascot never water loads early in the meetings and 5f on fast, with the belief that she will come out quickly, i was looking for that kind of price.
I’d be delighted if she won. But the track record would be the cherry on top of the cake.
I just hope she runs her race and doesn’t blow out.
Well thought out. Good bet win or lose.
Course record in Queen Anne, could be on a good thing MOM.
Value Is EverythingCourse record in the Queen Anne. You’re at least drawing live here Middle Of March.
2 year old course record in the Coventry too
Come on Lady A
Another course record in the Coventry! Looks like you’ll get your course record MoM, but with Lady Aurelia?
WOW….breathtaking stuff…couldn’t have it meself but fair play…well done MOM and all LA backers…what a performance!
100th of a second outside the record.
So close MOM.
Had she been ridden out…Value Is Everything100th of a second outside the record.
So close MOM.
Had she been ridden out…Damn
I knew it was close but ouch
Congratulations backers that was an unbelievable performance. Awfully unlucky MoM, but you said before the race you’d be happy if she only managed to win, and that the record would be a bonus, so congratulations.
I’ve finally got my price on the Lady Aurelia track record.
2 bookies offered odds.. Hills at 20s and Paddy Power at 25/1.
So I’m on the latter.
Fast ground over 5f. Is she just going to rip them apart straight from the start? I think so.
You’ve probably got good value there, MOM. But course records depend on how firm the ground is and how much pace is in the race; as much as how good the horse is. Not sure Lady A will lead though, with Take Cover, Just Glamorous and Signs Of blessing as well as a couple of others who like to lead/race prominently… On paper does look quite a bit of pace up front, although often connections can see a possible pace burn up and change tactics… leading to a slower pace than anticipated. Last year’s Lady Aurelia appendages are left off here just as they were for a winning reappearance where not making the running. Having said that, she’s got the rail this time and most of the other early pace appears to be up the centre – so may have to make her own running in her part of the course if Frankie keeps straight.
With luck in running one of the two fillies should win. Marsha won with a pen’ on reappearance (despite little stable confidence and should come on/improve). Be hard to beat if it wasn’t for the drugs at Wes’s disposal. Surprise surprise, trainer’s in wonderful form coming in to Royal Ascot and both he and the Lady obviously like this time of year.
Her 2016 Royal Ascot run unbelievable for a 2 year old filly in June… well, would be from any other yard. Yet another overly-mature 2 year old from this American stable. In my book fair odds are 11/4 Marsha and 3/1 Lady Aurelia. ie odds-on one of the two winning. At the prices I’ve backed Aurelia 4/1 and Signs Of Blessing 13/2 (prominent runner) just in case of a slow pace and LA is held up; saved on Marsha 7/2 (who will be held up). However, in this medieval battle – despite my investment – I’ll be cheering on Sir Mark Of Newmarket to beat the King Of Clenbuterol.Unfortunately, I win.
Matt Chapman ought to ask pertinent questions, instead of fawning over the American.Value Is EverythingEasy to say in hindsight but I should have really backed her because that Queen Mary performance last year was the most visually impressive display any sprinter had put up for years
People questioned if she would train on but if you’re that good at two do you need to train on?! just maintain your form
I think Caravaggio will do the same later in the week
As for the ITV presenters going to Wesley ward “whats your secret?”
I had to laugh. Something to do with slightly more lax rules on Drugs in American racing, perhaps?
Congratulations backers that was an unbelievable performance. Awfully unlucky MoM, but you said before the race you’d be happy if she only managed to win, and that the record would be a bonus, so congratulations.
I’m delighted mate. So close though
Unlucky MoM – I joines you and went for the course record bet….oh so close
However I was on ante poat at 6s so more than happy. She’s an absolute machine…so surprised she even touched 4s.
Well done all Lady Aurelia supporters what a turn of foot she showed.
No disgrace for Marsha in 3rd just beaten by a better filly.
Bad luck for the course record MoM.
Really enjoying the racing wish ITV would have a red button for the fashion though.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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