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The ‘Lady’ has been drawn right on the stands side out in 18. Assuming Dettori will go for it I can see them splitting into two groups.
Two hold-up horses, Washington DC (16/1) and Cotai Glory (33/1 with Hills), are drawn in 17 and 16 respectively so I feel they’ll be helped being next to the American pacesetter giving them a strong pace and a target to aim at.
Really hard to dig anything up apart from Marsha and Lady Aurelia here.
Anyone who doesn’t think Marsha is the top 5f sprinter in Europe is playing a different game to me. That’s beyond question at the moment. The issue for me is that we’ve been in a lull for a long time in this division – since Sole Power won in 2014 the winners have hardly been vintage. Marsha being a length or two better than Goldream, Priceless, Profitable and the other sacks wouldn’t make her anything like a NAP for a decent renewal.
That’s why I’m in the Lady Aurelia camp. I know the two-year-old form hasn’t worked out in a collateral sense, but the speed figures can’t be erased. She has done some unbelievable things. Also worth noting that Acapulco has been rerouted despite this being her optimum distance.
Really hard to dig anything up apart from Marsha and Lady Aurelia here.
Anyone who doesn’t think Marsha is the top 5f sprinter in Europe is playing a different game to me. That’s beyond question at the moment. The issue for me is that we’ve been in a lull for a long time in this division – since Sole Power won in 2014 the winners have hardly been vintage. Marsha being a length or two better than Goldream, Priceless, Profitable and the other sacks wouldn’t make her anything like a NAP for a decent renewal.
That’s why I’m in the Lady Aurelia camp. I know the two-year-old form hasn’t worked out in a collateral sense, but the speed figures can’t be erased. She has done some unbelievable things. Also worth noting that Acapulco has been rerouted despite this being her optimum distance.
It would be great to see them head to head in the last furlong for racing wouldn’t it?
Though the way Lady A runs, if she gets headed at any stage, I fear she would be beaten. Her cruising speed and instant turn of foot would be her big weapon.
I’m really looking forward to it
I wouldn’t worry Charles. Prices always get pushed out the evening before as bookies start to tighten up their percentages and begin to take their positions ahead of the next morning’s Pricewise grids. As you see on this forum alone, Lady Aurelia is one of the most divisive horses running all week. Now we see which bookies are taking a view against her.
They’ll soon duck and cover once the serious money enters the market in the morning.
Backed Signs of Blessing to win this @ 25’s & 14’s yesterday. He just does not stay 6F but the way he won yesterday giving 11 lbs to Profitable suggests he will by vying to be Europes Top 5F horse this year.
This race was confirmed as the target after the race, and if running is the one the all have to get past.
Tried to get on with Betbright this morning at 25’s but bets were declined
Got 12’s & 10’s also for him.
4 bets on Day 1 for me up to now. Good luck everyone
Good Luck Botchy but IMO SOB needs give in the ground and he certainly isn’t going to get that tomorrow!!
I am on Priceless and Goldream both at 16/1 but if the Lady Aurelia from last years Ascot turns up she wins but if the one from Newmarket last backend turns up she doesn’t!!
Regarding the 4/1 on Lady Aurelia…surely it’s just the market correcting itself?
A sea of blue on oddschecker for Marsha…how she wasn’t favourite before I found bizarre….I just don’t see any piece of 5f form in Lady Aurelia’s profile that entitled her to be favourite over Marsha…a horse who is clearly on the up with her last two performances being her best…and the best recent 5f form in the field….she’s top rated and getting weight…she’s ideally drawn in the middle (9) and will get a lovely lead from pacey horses around her…Just Glamorous (8) and Take Cover (11) to name two….I just don’t see any way she will be beat…bet of the week for me…
I’ve finally got my price on the Lady Aurelia track record.
2 bookies offered odds.. Hills at 20s and Paddy Power at 25/1.
So I’m on the latter.
Fast ground over 5f. Is she just going to rip them apart straight from the start? I think so.
You’ve probably got good value there, MOM. But course records depend on how firm the ground is and how much pace is in the race; as much as how good the horse is. Not sure Lady A will lead though, with Take Cover, Just Glamorous and Signs Of blessing as well as a couple of others who like to lead/race prominently… On paper does look quite a bit of pace up front, although often connections can see a possible pace burn up and change tactics… leading to a slower pace than anticipated. Last year’s Lady Aurelia appendages are left off here just as they were for a winning reappearance where not making the running. Having said that, she’s got the rail this time and most of the other early pace appears to be up the centre – so may have to make her own running in her part of the course if Frankie keeps straight.
With luck in running one of the two fillies should win. Marsha won with a pen’ on reappearance (despite little stable confidence and should come on/improve). Be hard to beat if it wasn’t for the drugs at Wes’s disposal. Surprise surprise, trainer’s in wonderful form coming in to Royal Ascot and both he and the Lady obviously like this time of year.
Her 2016 Royal Ascot run unbelievable for a 2 year old filly in June… well, would be from any other yard. Yet another overly-mature 2 year old from this American stable. In my book fair odds are 11/4 Marsha and 3/1 Lady Aurelia. ie odds-on one of the two winning. At the prices I’ve backed Aurelia 4/1 and Signs Of Blessing 13/2 (prominent runner) just in case of a slow pace and LA is held up; saved on Marsha 7/2 (who will be held up). However, in this medieval battle – despite my investment – I’ll be cheering on Sir Mark Of Newmarket to beat the King Of Clenbuterol.Value Is EverythingI’ve finally got my price on the Lady Aurelia track record.
2 bookies offered odds.. Hills at 20s and Paddy Power at 25/1.
So I’m on the latter.
Fast ground over 5f. Is she just going to rip them apart straight from the start? I think so.
You’ve probably got good value there, MOM. But course records depend on how firm the ground is and how much pace is in the race; as much as how good the horse is. Not sure Lady A will lead though, with Take Cover, Just Glamorous and Signs Of blessing as well as a couple of others who like to lead/race prominently… On paper does look quite a bit of pace up front, although often connections can see a possible pace burn up and change tactics… leading to a slower pace than anticipated. Last year’s Lady Aurelia appendages are left off here just as they were for a winning reappearance where not making the running. Having said that, she’s got the rail this time and most of the other early pace appears to be up the centre – so may have to make her own running in her part of the course if Frankie keeps straight.
With luck in running one of the two fillies should win. Marsha won with a pen’ on reappearance (despite little stable confidence and should come on/improve). Be hard to beat if it wasn’t for the drugs at Wes’s disposal. Surprise surprise, trainer’s in wonderful form coming in to Royal Ascot and both he and the Lady obviously like this time of year.
Her 2016 Royal Ascot run unbelievable for a 2 year old filly in June… well, would be from any other yard. Yet another overly-mature 2 year old from this American stable. In my book fair odds are 11/4 Marsha and 3/1 Lady Aurelia. ie odds-on one of the two winning. At the prices I’ve backed Aurelia 4/1 and Signs Of Blessing 13/2 (prominent runner) just in case of a slow pace and LA is held up; saved on Marsha 7/2 (who will be held up). However, in this medieval battle – despite my investment – I’ll be cheering on Sir Mark Of Newmarket to beat the King Of Clenbuterol.My theory being that from when I placed that bet, no rain was forecast. Ascot never water loads early in the meetings and 5f on fast, with the belief that she will come out quickly, i was looking for that kind of price.
I’d be delighted if she won. But the track record would be the cherry on top of the cake.
I just hope she runs her race and doesn’t blow out.
I did Lady Aurelia at 4/1. On balance I feel she will take the beating. I was tempted at 6/1 earlier but wanted to see who would show.
It’s only the one Group 1 Marsha has won. Her last race won’t be good enough here. It hasn’t worked out well. Most of them were beaten by Priceless next time and Marsha’s form is tied with Washington DC, hardly Mr Consistency.
I think Lady Aurelia will be too fast for all of them. I feel her win last time came despite it being far from ideal conditions. She looks big and powerful still. She could be a class apart looking to have trained on well enough for a relatively early season target.
There is a lot of dross in this field.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think it’s harsh to criticise the form of Marsha’s last win when it was her first run of the season and she carried the penalty…it’s still thrown up the winner and second of the group two Temple Stakes and a group 2 win in France for Muthmir…what’s the best 5f horse Lady Aurelia has beaten on quick ground?
Lady Aurelia did absolutely destroy the brilliant Ruby Notion on her comeback, for what it’s worth.
I do respect Marsha as the best of British but, again, think the point about her improving from that first run is being overstated. Sir Mark Prescott’s horses are surprisingly forward this year – indeed he’s running at his highest % of first time out winners in more than a decade. It’s no gimme that Marsha is going to step forward from that run.
Marsha is on form to take this race today you just have to go back to the l’Abbaye to see how many of those running today she had behind her and her last run at Newmarket was extremely game where she held on to beat Washington DC by a neck up the uphill finish of the Rowley Mile. I was there that day and she was the pick of the paddock although all attention was on Washington DC, and he is a talented horse but just one win out of four runs this season there has to be a question mark. Marsha on the other hand could be anything after winning her first outing and the ground will be in her favour today.
I saw Lady Aurelia at Newmarket last year when she was beaten by Brave Anna and was disappointed in how she looked in the paddock that day and although she has won a Listed race at Keenland this year, not sure if that was of any interest related to this race.
Wesley Ward has been allowed to work his horses on the Ascot track prior to this meeting but will be disappointed to hear that Frankie Dettori has been stood down for the meeting and none will be more devastated than Frankie who has put so much time and effort into this filly.Three against the field:-
MARSHA –
To carry home the distinctive black and white colours of The Elite Racing Club today and I bet every single one of them will be there to cheer her home.Muthmir – (EW)Seems to be back on track after being well beaten by Marsha at Newmarket last time out.
Goldream- (EW) another who is finding his old form once moreTuesday is the best day of Royal Ascot by far, great racing ahead, good luck everyone & welcome back Ginger, we’ve missed you. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I did Lady Aurelia at 4/1. On balance I feel she will take the beating. I was tempted at 6/1 earlier but wanted to see who would show.
It’s only the one Group 1 Marsha has won. Her last race won’t be good enough here. It hasn’t worked out well. Most of them were beaten by Priceless next time and Marsha’s form is tied with Washington DC, hardly Mr Consistency.
I think Lady Aurelia will be too fast for all of them. I feel her win last time came despite it being far from ideal conditions. She looks big and powerful still. She could be a class apart looking to have trained on well enough for a relatively early season target.
There is a lot of dross in this field.
Can’t see how you can say Marsha’s form “hasn’t worked out well”, Steve.
How the races were run sometimes makes a difference to lengths beaten but here’s a strict working out of form how I see it:Palace House Form:
1 Marsha 9-7
2 Washington DC neck 9-3
3 Goldream 1 length 9-3
4 Katchy 1 1/2 lengths 9-3
5 Priceless Short Head 9-0Marsha carried a 7 lb penalty for winning a Group 1. Plus the neck, means she has 8 lbs in hand of Washington DC here and 12 lbs with Goldream.
It’s true that WDC disappointed at Haydock, but not all horses run to form. The Palace House “form” was actually significantly bolstered by the Temple placed horses.
Temple:
1 Priceless 9-1
2 Goldream 1/2 length 9-4
3 Alpha Delphini neck 9-4
4 Final Venture 1 1/2 lengths 9-4
5 Katchy 1/2 length 9-4Goldream beat Katchy 1 1/2 lengths at Newmarket and 2 1/4 at Haydock; so it seems they ran within 3/4 of length either way. Priceless did not run to form in the Palace House, but has a little over 18 lbs beating to turn around there; but there is a better form line to judge Priceless compared to Marsha… Goldream finishing just 1/2 length behind the winner (1/2 lenghth = 2 lbs @ 5f) means on that form Priceless has 10 lbs to find on Marsha (Goldream’s 8 lbs + the 2). Alpha Delphini seems to be improving, but on this Goldream form line has 11 lbs to find on Marsha, Final Venture 17 lbs. Or to put it another way, on form Marsha would’ve won the Temple by 2 1/2 lengths at these weights. Not bad for “form not worked out”.
If on the other hand the 3/4 length difference between Goldream and Katchy means Katchy ran to form and Goldrem improved from Newmarket to Haydock… then 3/4 length = 3 lbs at 5f. So all those figures -3 means on the line through Katchy Priceless still has 7 lbs (1 3/4 lenths) to make up on Marsha; Goldream 9 lbs, Alpha Delphini 8 lbs and Final Venture 14.
Value Is EverythingI’ve been a fan of SIGNS OF BLESSING, along with a few others that had
commented in this thread (good luck botchy with those cracking prices). I’ve not done well
out of him as yet, he pulled out of a race (can’t remember for the life of me what one it was)
before the Champions Sprint Stakes last year, and lost my ante post on him. I again backed him
for the Champions Sprint, and I thought he had it won, only to fade right at the death. He looks
in sparkling form and with a furlong less than last year I can see him being really hard to peg
back. I think the ground will be okay, although I’d rather they had had a little rain to bring
it back to good.I also think that Priceless is well over priced at 16/1, and is a worthy
place bet. This looks like being a cracker good luck everyone & welcome back Ginger, we’ve missed you. Jac
Thanks Jac, might be a fleeting visit – we’ll see.
Value Is Everything
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