- This topic has 203 replies, 33 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
If it comes up soft (as it looks likely to do) and there is a decent pace I would expect a big run from Youmzain.. I can ignore his run last time as it was over an inadequate trip. Previous to that he had run big races in defeat and the ground was not in his favour either.. He needs a good test of stamina and an end to end gallop (He lacks a turn of pace) but this horse stays all day and definitely has a big race in him.. I don’t think he’ll get a better chance than this.
Not sure what price he is currently as I can’t see BF at work but I would imagine he’s a backable e/w price? Probably fourth favourite..
I do think Dubai Millennuim was and still is one of the most overated horses of the last decade. He was a good horse no doubt at that you dont win 3 group 1 and not be, but lets be honest he was no better than notnowcato is now.
Most ridiculous statement I’ve seen in a long, long time …
Dancing Brave beat rock solid performers Dubai Millennium beat the likes of Beat All and Almushtarak whereas Dancing Brave trounced the likes of Shahrastani and Triptych among others.
Sharanstani was performer but no more whereas Tryptych (lovely as she was) was usually beaten by the best group one performers. If memory serves me right, Mtoto and Reference point beat her more comfortably the DB
I would agree with the comments about generous but he did have a slow start to his career maybe and for some that would take the gloss off perhaps
Not sure what price he is currently as I can’t see BF at work but I would imagine he’s a backable e/w price? Probably fourth favourite..
Win and (place) prices, to back:
Dylan Thomas 2.56 (1.37)
Scorpion 5.2 (1.66)
Maraahel 6.6 (1.84)
Youmzain 9.0 (2.28 )
Laverock 16 (3.1)
Prince Flori 16.5 (3.4)
Sergeant Cecil 40 (4.5)
Yellowstone 65 (6.2)newyork Id love to hear you justification for saying not nowcato is as good as Dubai Millenium. In the G1s he won (there was 4 not 3) he demolished the fields and lost only once over a trip which was too far.
Are you somehow suggesting that the countless times notnowcato has lost over his preffered 10f were mere blips and the ones he won he was value for far more than the winning margin?
Don’t know if forum rules allow this but here is a short film about DM, introduced by CH4 racing’s Jim McGrath.
>>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaeIEishAe4
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I never stated that notnowcato was better that DM, i stated the DM was no better, If you look at his 3 group 1 wins ,the strongest 1 was the french win, the QE11 was against horse who where no better than group 3.The prince of wales in which he didnt even start fav,his nearest rival didnt even stay the trip.
The price of Yellowstone is interesting. He was beaten less than 3 lengths last time by a horse some are comparing with Dubai Millennium, and yet he is the outsider of all at 65 in what looks like the weakest King George for many a year.
Confused? You should be!
Hold your bets Prufrock. O’Brien has stated in todays RP that Yellowstone is a doubtful runner.
I just read the bit that said: "…with Yellowstone in the field, there could be a fast pace, which will suit our horse [Sergeant Cecil]…"
Does anyone sub this copy?!?
newyork the point I was making is that DM won 3 of 4 of his (admittedly not the strongest) G1s by 5 or more lengths. I was enquiring whether the opposition of notnowcato was strong enough to justify the fact that he has won by much narrower margins if they are of the same ability.
and since when does not being the favourite devalue a horses performance? Hawk Wing was favourite for the derby, does that make High Chaparral’s performance less good and worth less in the ratings?
Dubai Millennium won (on turf) weak group ones that is the point I’m trying top make he never faced a top class rival that ran to his form.
Dettori may say he was the best horse he’s ridden but then jockeys say lots of things don’t they?
By the way I forgot Nijinsky in my list as someone previously pointed out, yes of course he should be on there.
The price of Yellowstone is interesting. He was beaten less than 3 lengths last time by a horse some are comparing with Dubai Millennium, and yet he is the outsider of all at 65 in what looks like the weakest King George for many a year.
Confused? You should be!
Yellowstone’s proximity to the principles at Sandown only increases my own personal suspicions that the Eclipse form is dubious.
At Sandown , after a furlong or two following the pace maker, they appeared to slow the pace considerably, which allowed, imho, Yellowstone a free ride up front. When they turned into the stretch they seemed to quicken the pace markedly, and Yellowstone benefited from his position because he was on the lead, with Authorized and George Washington being asked huge questions to close the gap from way off the pace against quickening horses who had start on them.
I fully accept that judging events with the naked eye is problematic – one day we will get sectionals to back up suspicions – but my own personal view is that Yellowstone got lucky in the Eclipse and will struggle in top company when races are run at proper even, strong fractions.
- Total Posts 17716
Can’t help thinking that the favourite won’t run if the heavens open, which would surely make Scorpion oods on?
Can’t help thinking that the favourite won’t run if the heavens open, which would surely make Scorpion oods on?
Should be, but i don`t like a slow pace for him. I think the play in this race is just laying DT. Although Youmzain is 9.2 on Betfair which is a couple of points too big imo.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.