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Kauto Star surely? If he jumps round he’ll hack up. 5/4 = bet of the season so far .
………. I hope
GRASS,GOOD LUCK on that, as you know to trade him off, your gonna
want to sit as tight as A.P will be doing, leavin it and leavin it! The first sign
of any movement from A.P"s arms and its time to hit the lay button.The problem with "Albertas" is he does it all on the bridle, and will find only a
"Nats Cod" more than "Harchibald" off it! so even if he touches 2"s after the last with a length off the leader he will still need to be on the bridle, cos he wont battle! So long as the ground is good so will he be!
I will have you backing him for the Gold cup before long!!!!!!!!!!dessie only lost in Nupsala’s year because he and Beau Ranger took each other on from the star [have never actually seen that race].
Cymbelline, or some such named creature was also involved in the frontrunning scrap.
[edit: Cybrandian was the horse I was thinking of.]
I think it is a better King George than we have had for a while…but Tidal bay and WOA not running has definitely taken some of the interest out.
Can’t understand why Tidal Bay is going for the Rowland Meyrick instead ??
I think it could be a missed opportunity ducking the big one.
Zip
I with grasshopper…its a very underwhelming field. the main contender is one that hasnt been proven to last the distance (and although a "sharp" track..its run at quite a pace usually) and is much better left handed
Kautos price is tempting
The list of 2 1/2 milers to fail in the KG is a long one, many of them starting at short prices. VPU is for taking on for me until he proves he stays this trip.
Am I the only one who thinks this is anything but a top-class renewal? Let’s look at the field:
A great horse in Kauto Star as fave, but one who now has definite question marks against him.
A moderate QM winner in VPU, who is far from guaranteed to see out the trip.
A Mackeson winner going for a yard that cannot buy a winner at present.
The talented yet quirky Our Vic, going for another yard that can’t buy a winner, and with age all against him.
A Sun Alliance winner who has run absolute shockers in his only starts this season.
Some make-weght handicappers, and/or probable non-stayers being the only other entrants.
For me, this is possibly the worst King George field I can remember, and if Kauto Star doesn’t dance-up hard-held, we can foget both him, and most likely the relevance of the form, for the remainder of the season.
It’s a thoroughly uninspiring renewal, imo.
I think Grass has got this race sewn up.
Of Kauto’s rivals:
Voy Por is an average Champion Chase winner who may or may not be better at 2m4f. Is bred to get 3m around Kempton, but is enthusiastic and such horses often do not stay as far as expected.
Our Vic usually runs very well fresh and would be the obvious each way shout; had it not been for Pipe’s atrocious form. Has had numerous non-runners recently too.
Tamarinbleu appeared to me as if he did not quite get home at Haydock. Good going should help in that sphere. However, he has many more possible front runners to hassle him for the lead this time. And from the same out of form Pipe yard too.
Imperial Commander was mightily impressive in the Paddy Power and could yet improve. But at that time twister was in very good form, this time he’s in very poor form. With few even running to form, let alone improving.
The bigger prices on betfair for the three horses from out of form yards says it all.
Briarius is a novice who will in all probability be taken on for the lead. Will get his ground but will he stay?
Alberta’s Run will also get his ground but has run two dreadful races this season. Stable is now in better form though.
Mont Misere is totally outclassed.
Snoopy Loopy won the betfair chase due to others misfortunes (not onl;y Kauto Star). I suppose he could do so again, but the good going will put more of a strain on his jumping.
Air Force One has the fewest question marks about him. Is improving, goes well on right-handed tracks. But the price has gone now. 8/1 about a horse who needs to improve dramatically to win, or even be placed in a normal year is not great value. Others surely need to run below form, but that is a distinct possibility.
Kauto Star; what was it that ailed him at Haydock and will he run to form tomorrow? Well, the fact is he does not have to run to form, anything within 10 lbs of his best is likely to be good enough.
I do not believe he was unfit at Haydock, it was though, at the start of the Nicholls form dip. Which may have had something to do with it. Stable has returned to form in the last few days. Have watched the Betfair time and again. Why did he blunder? Thomas was blamed, and I suppose for a horse known to go left handed, it was a risk to go up the inner. Where a collision with the upright was a possibility. Seemed to me he was just pushing Kauto along at that stage anyway. Although he would’ve won had he not made those errors, would not have run to form. I believe there is another reason for his jumping problems generally. That is him hearing the crowd roar puts him off. Most of his mistakes have been in the home straight when not exactly under pressure. He is basically a very good jumper. There is also a doubt in my mind whether that injury sustained at Ascot has had some effect, not been at his best since.However, on the whole I would say the bet to have is 7/2 for Kauto to win by 4 or more lengths, with a saver on Kauto Star at 7/2 less than 4 lengths. But I am considering not having a bet this year and just enjoying the race.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingKauto Star has started odds-on for the last two renewals of this race and duly obliged, but I believe this is a tougher assignment than the previous two runnings and it’s a contest I’m very much looking forward to.
The question of whether or not he retains all of his ability will be answered today. I think it was premature to make such suggestions after Haydock, but if he fails to shine around his beloved Kempton, the scene of two of his greatest efforts, it would be fair to assume that the spark has gone.
It’s a race full of questions, but which horse do you think is most capable of answering them?
Would you rather take a chance on Kauto Star’s retention of ability, or Voy Por Ustedes staying the trip?
Would you rather take a chance on the form of David Pipe and go for the talented yet quirky Old Vic, who also has an absence to overcome, or the tough and consistent Snoopy Loopy, who may just find a few too good?
What about the two second season chasers? Air Force One, who will appreciate the return to a right-handed track, or Imperial Commander, who could find the necessary improvement with the step-up in trip? Both need to improve, but they are progressive.
Throw in an out of form yet talented SunAlliance winner, a front runner who could steal or set the race up and a talented novice stepping up in class / trip and we have ourselves a really fascinating contest.
The old saying is that class is permanent, form is temporary. In the case of Kauto Star you have to wonder if his temporary lack of form is the result of impermanence!
I’d still favour Kauto Star in this contest. I’d rather take a chance on his ability than the stamina of VPU. Alan King’s battler is a former Arkle and Champion Chase winner who sadly doesn’t get the credit he deserves. Even if he does stay, a 100% Kauto Star will be too much for him.
Far too many ew candidates to feel confident about one, but I think the two second season chasers could fill the placings. Progressive and talented, I think Imperial Commander will love Kempton and he’ll improve even further for three miles. He can belie his trainers form to fill second.
Only Desert Orchid has managed to win this race on three successive occasions. I sincerely hope we see Kauto Star back to his very best and landing the hat-trick impressively.
History beckons…
A very good assessment Bosranic, imo.
I certainly have my doubts about Kauto’s current form/ability but I still feel he will be too good for this field. I’m also amazed at how many people have deserted him considering his class, versatility and what he has achieved thus far. If he’s 85% he should win this race, if he is 100% then he destroys this field with ease.
As the saying goes he doesn’t owe us anything but I’d love to see him win 3 in a row. An achievement I’d rate as highly as Best Mate’s 3 Gold Cups.
I’m not with Ginge on VPU I thought at Aintree he got the trip easily. MM stopped like he hit a brick wall but VPU wasn’t under any sort of real pressure and ran his race out wellto the line. What the form is worth is anyones guess but I doubt if he can beat Kauto Star anyway. What could if he runs his race?
Quality wise it’s about the same as last season maybe slightly better as MWDS one of the fancied horses ran no sort of race last season. Old Vic improved bundles when fitted with blickers so should run better this year if fit (sure he will be) and Imperial Commander will run much better than anyone thinks…..he’s a really good horse. I’m not concerned about the yards formas apart from a few which maybe should have won he’s been running some real no hopers lately…..probably preparing for them for the second half of the season.
Where I do agree with Ginge is this crazy 4 length bet.
get a friend to stick a couple of grand on at 7/2 for less than 4 lenths…….9000 quid return have 7K on at 7/2 more than 4 lengths and if it stoats you got 24,500 juicy pounds back….doesn’t you lose zero
…gotta be catch somewhere like a maximum of 20 pence or something….bookies a nutter!!! 
Very Happy Boxing Day Fists.
The bet is for Kauto Star to win by 4 lengths or more, or by less than 4 lengths. 7/2 + 7/2 = 22.2% + 22.2% = 44.4%.
55.6% to 44.4% = 5/4.
Gerald
- Total Posts 60
Snoopy Loopy seems to be doing very well as of late.
Kauto star should win but i think it’d be nice if snoopy loopy did…call me mad eh..It has to be Kauto Star for me all the way.
I’d simply be clutching at straws by opposing him.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
- Total Posts 60
i’d agree that Kauto star really should win, but nothing is a certainty as was proven by his last run…
there are quite a few horses who have been good in the past and who seem to be up and coming, i wouldnt say that nothing else could win..
Our vic used to be very popular and i wouldnt say he was without a chance…
voy por ustedes has a chance too…
it really is if you think kauto star wont win quite a hard race to call…KS – Backing exposed horses on the downgrade at 5/4 leads to the longterm poorhouse
VPU – Can a 2m Champion Chaser stay a truely run 3m? Wouldnt be taking a chance a 7/2
AFO – Will stay of course and good ground suits, but his jumping goes to pieces under pressure in fast run quality races and he keeps getting beaten at this level
OV – I like him but he will be taken on for the lead today and his jumping may suffer as a reult, stuffed in this last year when Pipe was flying
TAM – Didnt stay the last furlong Haydock, will be faster again today
SL – Probably a race too many
AR – Looks gone at the game for the moment, he’s probably best on a stiff track
IC – Ok his record beyond 2m5f is shocking but he is young, jumps well, stil on the upgrade, ran a huge time in the PP where he shaped like further would be no problem, Barbers Shop and Private Be have franked that form and 12/1 looks a fair price given his profile, he’ll do for me e/w
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