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Cheers for that, as Tommo would say, I’ve got a lot of time for Mr Hales, he is outstanding!
Not sure how people can say Kauto was not right or fit for Haydock, as much as I like Paul Nicholls he always has some excuse for his when they lose, especially when they are well fancied. If its not their breathing its the pace, the ground, the track, his toast fell butter side down that morning. Yes there aren’t machines and can’t win them all, so for me that is reason enough. But to suddenly say Kauto was not as fit as he usually is to me is just another of his excuses. And the argument about him not being fresh for last year’s Gold Cup when compared to the year before he’d missed the Tingle Creek and to say he was over worked last year when he only ran 6 times and he had said on several occasions the past few years that Kauto takes his races well and doesn’t take much getting fit is proof that he often contradicts himself and usually after a loss.
Going back to Curlin, yes the surface was an unknown to him, but the same was true of Ravens and Henry and they had a trip to contend with. Also over 10f he had been unbeatable for suh a long time that there had to be something not 100% that the bookies knew about which is why they let him trade so big for so long. and I maintain against this field on a course where he has proved nigh on unbeatable, Kauto Star still trading at 6/4 is too good to be true and as they say, if it looks too good to be true, then it usually is.Having suffered 3 deafeats the bookies are simply taking a chance and who’s to blame them.
It is pretty normal for a trainer to run a horse very fit and give him an easy fist race then let him down a bit in preperation for his main target.
In Kauto’s case his main target of the season is the King George as there is no Denman to contend with.
You can’t keep them 100% all the time and when they do peak there is only one way they can go and that is down.
Ruby said the Kauto Star may have left his race at Ascot last year.in other words may have been over the top.
PN has been talking about missing this and missing that because of what Ruby said and he has probably advised PN to change his schedule.
If PN overdid it and took it too easy pre Haydock, it would go along way to explaing why horses he would normally walk past were so close to him when he came down.
I’m not saying it is fact, but if it is not and Kauto Star was 100% fit at Haydock, I would advise everyone to back something else in the King George because on that form he has no more than a fair chance.
It could be I am reading into something that is not there but I doubt it and come the King George I think we’ll see a totally different horse than we did at Haydock.
If he wins the King George in similar fashion as last season it gives PN plenty time to let him down for a few weeks and bring him back slowly to peak fitness for the Gold Cup.
He would then have had a much easier season than last and you could probably expect to see him run again at Aintree.
Not sure how people can say Kauto was not right or fit for Haydock, as much as I like Paul Nicholls he always has some excuse for his when they lose, especially when they are well fancied. If its not their breathing its the pace, the ground, the track, his toast fell butter side down that morning. Yes there aren’t machines and can’t win them all, so for me that is reason enough. But to suddenly say Kauto was not as fit as he usually is to me is just another of his excuses. And the argument about him not being fresh for last year’s Gold Cup when compared to the year before he’d missed the Tingle Creek and to say he was over worked last year when he only ran 6 times and he had said on several occasions the past few years that Kauto takes his races well and doesn’t take much getting fit is proof that he often contradicts himself and usually after a loss.
Going back to Curlin, yes the surface was an unknown to him, but the same was true of Ravens and Henry and they had a trip to contend with. Also over 10f he had been unbeatable for suh a long time that there had to be something not 100% that the bookies knew about which is why they let him trade so big for so long. and I maintain against this field on a course where he has proved nigh on unbeatable, Kauto Star still trading at 6/4 is too good to be true and as they say, if it looks too good to be true, then it usually is.Great post.
If the trainer does not know (which is fair enough) then he should stop guessing.
It is surely far more likely that Kauto Star was far from 100% wound up for Down Royal, and that run should have brought him to a peak for Haydock.
If Kauto Star is at his best, he wins – simple as that. But there are definite questions marks over his recent form now and there are no possible excuses for him other than simply not being the horse he was. That does not necessarily mean he cannot return to form but its a watching brief for me.
Not sure how people can say Kauto was not right or fit for Haydock, as much as I like Paul Nicholls he always has some excuse for his when they lose, especially when they are well fancied. If its not their breathing its the pace, the ground, the track, his toast fell butter side down that morning. Yes there aren’t machines and can’t win them all, so for me that is reason enough. But to suddenly say Kauto was not as fit as he usually is to me is just another of his excuses. And the argument about him not being fresh for last year’s Gold Cup when compared to the year before he’d missed the Tingle Creek and to say he was over worked last year when he only ran 6 times and he had said on several occasions the past few years that Kauto takes his races well and doesn’t take much getting fit is proof that he often contradicts himself and usually after a loss.
Going back to Curlin, yes the surface was an unknown to him, but the same was true of Ravens and Henry and they had a trip to contend with. Also over 10f he had been unbeatable for suh a long time that there had to be something not 100% that the bookies knew about which is why they let him trade so big for so long. and I maintain against this field on a course where he has proved nigh on unbeatable, Kauto Star still trading at 6/4 is too good to be true and as they say, if it looks too good to be true, then it usually is.Great post.
If the trainer does not know (which is fair enough) then he should stop guessing.
It is surely far more likely that Kauto Star was far from 100% wound up for Down Royal, and that run should have brought him to a peak for Haydock.
If Kauto Star is at his best, he wins – simple as that. But there are definite questions marks over his recent form now and there are no possible excuses for him other than simply not being the horse he was. That does not necessarily mean he cannot return to form but its a watching brief for me.
I think PN said he came back in 10 times better looking than he had ever seen him and just before Down Royal said he was in the best form of his life………..under normal conditions I would agree with you but reading through the lines I think you will find it was the exact opposite to what you are saying……..I am only guessing of course but Kempton should prove us right or wrong
yea i actually work for lisah hales, the daughter .. thats how n y i know the horses etc x
Kauto loves it at Kempton so I can’t see him not winning this comfortably if reaching anywhere near true form, I’m glad Paul Nicholls is giving him an easier schedule this year, as last year his busy schedule was his undoing in my opinion regarding the Gold Cup.
I can’t remember the exact figures, but I think I worked it out that Kauto had a race every 19 days or so approaching the Gold Cup, I would have liked him to have had a good rest before that race, and an easier schedule altogether from Jan up until March especially, which is the plan this year..
Although it remains to be seen whether or not he is the same horse that he was at the end of 2007.
Chris B – in actual fact, KS had a lighter campaign in the build up to this year’s GC than he did in 06/07. Not quite sure where your ’19 days’ thing came from but between the Old Roan (mid October-ish) and Cheltenham (mid March) he only ran in the Betfair, King George and Ascot Chase. The previous year was the same (swap Aon at Newbury for the Ascot Chase) but with the Tingle Creek as well.
There’s certainly an argument to be made that Aintree was a bad move after his mauling by Denman, but I certainly dont think he was overcooked by the time Cheltenham came around
On the subject of the King George, as many have said, 6/4 or 5/4 both look outstanding prices, I just can’t see him losing this one. I was down in Ditcheat last week and they’re absolutely full of him, they couldn’t have sounded more positive. If he’s anywhere near last year’s form (which, by all accounts, he certainly is), then he just needs a clean round
Interesting post Yankee…
So do you think KS will win if he is not as good as last year?
Who does the PN camp think are the real dangers in the race?
Zippy
we didn’t get that far unfortunately. I was only told that he was ‘absolutely flying’, was carrying no ill effects from his slip at Haydock and would be spot on for Kempton. I feel that a performance even 7 or 8lbs inferior to his run last year would be sufficient to win again this year.
That said, there are a few relatively unknown quantities – namely Imperial Commander and VPU (sounds like TB won’t run).VPU, I imagine will improve for the extra distance, but in reality is no better than a (consistent) 170 horse. I think Kauto would have to run pretty badly to get turned over by him. Imperial Commander is interesting, mostly because of the noises that NTD is making about him – on bare form (although visually impressive) his Paddy Power run wasn’t outstanding, and shouldn’t put him anywhere near Kauto yet. But … sounds like there’s more to come!
Couldn’t agree with you more on Imperial Commander but will he run? I suppose he will with the doubt hanging over Kauto Star.
He’s entered for the Ryanair and for the Gold Cup andif it ween’t for the aforementioned I would have thought NTD would have wanted a couple of less taxing races into him before Cheltenham. I feel it’s a bit early in his carreer to be chasing King George’s
I suppose he has nothing to lose but I would have prefer he missed the race for his sake……….If Kauto wins this like he did last season the his next step is the Gold Cup and if Denman bounces back then the big rematch is on. If that does happen everything else would be as well staying at home In that case I would be very tempted to switch Imperial C to the Ryanair. Perhaps next season would be a more sensible time to be chasing the Gold Cup with a good prospect like him?
However if Kauto is to be beaten I hope it is by him and then we may still have a horse who can take on Denman and make the Gold Cup that bit more interesting.
If Tidal Bay doesn’t go for the KG, it’s almost certain we won’t see him over three miles this season. I think he’ll have one more run before the Ryanair (possibly the Commercial Chase or something sooner) and then the Mumm Melling at Aintree.
I think John Hales was keen to run Noland in the KG, but Paul Nicholls has suggested the horse stay at two and a half this season, with the possibility of stepping him up in trip next year. I think Howard Johnson will follow the same plan and, in the process, find out if Tidal Bay’s a Gold Cup horse.
It’s such a shame Exotic Dancer’s main target is the Lexus. He’s got about as much chance of beating Neptune Collanges as Kauto Star, but with question marks over the latters retention of ability I would’ve gone to Kempton.
This promises to be a cracking renewal. A good mix of proven, top class animals and exciting prospects who could give the big boys a run for their money.
I read yesterday that connections are keen to run War Of Attrition. We could also have two former Gold Cup winners taking each other on.
Looking forward to it!
I would agree with you with regards to Exotic Dancer if the race wasn’t at Kempton.Heran well enough there 2 years ago but the track is probalby way too sharp for him these days.
Going to Ireland is probably quite a sensible decison as the chances are it could be heavy ground which he won’t mind. He had Neptune Collonges well beat when the latter fell 2 out at Cheltenham and that was in heavy ground.
Neptune Collonges has improved since then but ED ran a blinder 1st timeout this season……ED is a massive 14 /1 and I will be having some of that but only as a saver as I think NC will win but I wouldn’t rule out ED at all.
He’s not 14/1 for nothing though…If Kempton look like it’s going to be heavy who knows what Jonjo might do.
I don’t think it’s up to Jonjo where Exotic Dancer goes, Fist. It’s Sir Robert Ogden that wants to keep ED and Voy Por apart.
Good point Friggo but if you asked SRO which race he would rather win don’t you think the King George would obviously be the one?.
While VPU has won on soft ground I think I am right ins aying he is better on Good to Good to soft.
If Kempton did come up Heavy it would surely put paid to VPU chances of winning………3 miles heavy is a long way from 2 miles Good to soft and very few horses with the speed to win any QMCC are likely to get the trip.
Jonjo has decided to go for the Lexus with good reason with SRO approval. If he had a change of heart, because of the above reasons, I’m sure SRO would say go for it.
The chances of having good ground in Ireland and Heavy ground here must be pretty remote so the question will probably never arise
Our Vic is the interesting horse for me in the KG this year.
He comes to Kempton first time out as last year when he was a well beaten 2nd.
He then ran well at Pillar meeting, won the Ryanair at the festival and reversed the KG form when beating Kauto in the Aintree Bowl on a flat 3miles 1f.
The stable is well capable of returning a top performer first time out.
If you take the view that KS isn’t as good (I have) then he has an excellent chance against a host of horses unproven at the trip.Our Vic e.w. at 10/1 NRNB with Stan James for the King George is very fair considering that if he doesn’t run you get your cash back
I cannot see Old Vic winning it…struggle for a place imho. His 2nd last year was…well…a very distant 2nd.
Zip
I cannot see Old Vic winning it…struggle for a place imho. His 2nd last year was…well…a very distant 2nd.
Zip
It may have been distant to the winner, but he still beat sdecent horses to get 2nd and was not riddent to win but to beat the rest. His Ryanair and Aintree wins suggest he still has plenty to offer and that he will stay this trip on this kind of course. I really dopn’t understand why he is knocked so much.
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