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When a price looks too good to be true, it probably is Zippy- the fact that he’s 18-1 on Betfair tells you he’s a doubtful runner.
Francombe was all over the place on Saturday when talking about the King George.
Stating that Kauto Star will love the test of speed presented by the King George yet put his Haydock defeat down to the fact that there was little pace early on and that it turned into a sprint…i.e a test of speed! McGrath pointed out what he was saying and he didnt have a clue.
Both Fitzgerald and Francombe kept praising KS’s jumping yet when the others pointed out his awful round of jumping in the Gold Cup, mistake at Aintree and again at Haydock they simply brushed it off and said he was a brilliant jumper (which at times he is).
His theory about Tidal Bay does not sit well either, as Down pointed out he was simply going too fast rather than it being something wrong. He commented that the horse had his head in the air…well errr thats what he always does!
Stating that Kauto Star will love the test of speed presented by the King George yet put his Haydock defeat down to the fact that there was little pace early on and that it turned into a sprint…i.e a test of speed
Didnt see it, but maybe he was more refering to the quick nature of the Kempton course as opposed to the "slow horses" nature of Haydock?
Or maybe he wasnt…
the straight at kempton often sorts them out and those fences come quite quickly…or speedily shall we say
Maybe Tidal Bay was off colour rather than outpaced in the Tingle Creek because he battered Takeroc at Aintree over 2m but only just beat him at Sandown when his stamina should helped him more.
Looking ahead to the KG, I think Kauto is very vulnerable this time around so I’m just hoping that he comes alive at his favourite track/under ideal conditions…
Quite interesting comments by John Francombe on Channel 4 yesterday.
He’s convinced something was hurting Tidal Bay in the Tingle Creek. Can’t say I noticed anything, but when someone like JF makes that kind of observation it’s worth considering.
I think Kauto Star is still the one to beat and he has most to fear from Tidal Bay, whose been crying out for this trip. In recent years, One Man and Kauto Star have proved that a class two miler who stays well thrives around Kempton. Voy Por Ustedes has to be considered, too.
TB is related to a three miler and gives the impression it won’t pose a problem. Howard Johson is convinced he needs a trip and I can see him being given an ‘Exotic Dancer’ style ride on the day (if HJ decides to run him) – switched off out the back and slowly creeping closer.
It will be interesting to see if Kauto can beat him for speed.
Air Force One is the dark horse. What a race! Hope all the leading protagonists take their chance.
Maybe there was something but could it be a case of Francome using such a comment to create a bit of interest for the viewers?
I’m not saying Tidal Bay won’t get the trip but I do ask myslef will it improve him as much as some people think. He put up 2 cracking performance in the Arkle and at Aintree but perhaps that’s as good as he is.
Nothing wrong with looking for excuses with beaten horse. Find the right ones and you’ll end up a rich man but he was so easlily outpointed by Master Minded. Have we over rated him?
A couple of questions I find myself asking are is this a better race than last year? and has Kauto Star gone backwards enough, if at all, that it matters?
The only difference I can see is Tidal Bay in possible quality of opposition and I’m convinced PN will have KS is much better nick on Boxing Day than he did when ran last.
If Kauto was on top of his form I can’t see any horse in training that would get anywhere near him at this distance. I can’t remember any chaser who could produce a turn of foot like he can and round Kempton that’s a match winner everytime.
So I ask myself does it matter if he has lost a bit of zest? Even if he has he will still take the world of beatig if PN has him as fit as a fiddle.
So I am sticking with him like the last three races never happened and bet him accordingly.
My main worrt is not that he may have lost his ability I am more concerned about his confidence which seems to have been a problem since Ascot but he owes me nothing so you puts down your money and akes your chances as they say.
I know the risk of following fallen heroes……When Persian War, who won many many times for me, started deteriorating I followed him through thick and thin and it cost me plenty……there were many others and only What a Myth ended up reaping me any rewards when he won the God Cup.
I learned he hard way, but Kauto has one advatage on most and that is he is still a young horse. For me it’s hard to accept that a great horse like him is deteriorating at his age, French bred or not.
Fair point Carvs,
Interesting TB has drifted so alarmingly on BF…..Corals were 5/1 this morning and now 8/1
Zip
The more I think about Kauto’s price the more I think something stinks. True bookies sometimes like to take a chance with a horse and maybe because the yard are not banging them in like they often are at this time of year, but 6/4 in a race where many are unproven to stay or even not proven to be in his kind of class is a crazy price. Even given his below par effort last time he should be odds on, especially as his trainer has remained upbeat that he’ll be spot on come the day. I kind of reminds me of Curling being so big for the Classic leading up to the race when based on his best form he should have been 1/2 at the least. True in both races there were unknown dangers and possible improvers but most of the field have to find pounds to match him round Kempton.
As for Air Force one, he is a horse I have a lot of time for, but he has to improve over 18lbs in my book to figure here and if he didn’t have that kind of improvement in him to win either of the handicaps he’s run in so far this season, I think Charlie Mann will be a miracle worker to get it out of him come Boxing Day. Most high class novices are able to stamp their authority on handicappers when given fairly lenient marks to start off with.
The noises about Tidal Bay straight after the race suggested he wasn’t gonna run in this as it was too soon and I expect that to be so. VPU has a good chance, but his comeback run was only fair to middling and while he finds his way during the season, this is quite a step in one go, would have preferred him to have had another run somewhere else to be honest. Imp Comm could be anything, but at around 8s, he’s not worth siding with and I do take Jim McGrath’s comments on board about how hard Saturday would have been and the fact he does not always run the same race twice. So in my book, unless they bring War of Attrition over or Hales gets his way and Noland is allowed to run after all, I see Snoopy Loopy, who ran a good race last week and seems to be tough as teak and still on the upcurve, and Our Vic, who goes well fresh, gets this trip on less demanding tracks and who does have a fair and square win against KS as they best EW alternatives to the front 2 in the market and it wouldn’t surprise me if both actually got in the frame. To say Our Vic is too old is ridiculous, he doesn’t have that many miles on the clock and put in his 2 best efforts the last 2 times he raced. And horses like Edredon Bleu and Florida Pearl have both run well in this one later on in their career when others thought they were back numbers and he’s a fresher horse than they were.Does Paul Nicholls not want Noland to run for the sake of the horse or is he worried that he might beat Kauto Star?
I think there were quite a few negatives that kept Curlin odds against for the Classic in all honesty. The high quality field being one of them.
As for the King George though – Tidal Bay now at 21.0 on BF shows that it’s highly unlikely he will run.
I still like Snoopy EW for this. He has only been out of the frame once in 14 runs and that was when he was pulled up. Every race he has finished in 2008 he has been placed in – whatever you have to say about Snoopy, that is remarkable considering the opposition he’s been put up against.
Kauto is a very good price at 6/4 – I agree with pretty much everything regarding him in your post Stan. I also quite like the look of Air Force One for this.
I cant help but fancy Albertas Run slightly at 33’s if he runs…..
May have an ew on Mr Mcgoldrick if he runs….don’t think I’ve ever seen him better than he is this year.
Absolute star Moehat – magic horse Mister McGoldrick, hurdles, fences, 2m or 2 1/2m he always runs his race. Would love him to win it but I can´t see it
paul has said he feels its a year to soon 4 nobby, n somethink bout the track not suiting????? but ya never know lol x
It would be some achievement by Mr Mcgoldrick if he reverse placings with Snoopy Loopy ever mind beat Kauto Star.
Snoopy Loopy was probaly as fit as fit can be when he won at Haydock whereas there a good chance Kauto Star was not,
I really like SL he;s as touh as they come but round Kempton he will be at a huge disadvanate against some of these.
Nigel-TD is said to be going way over the top when he talks about Imperial Commander, apparantly that is something very unusual for him when he is talking about his horses.
If he is as good as he obviously thinks and turns up here, he could be the one to upset the applecart.
I just can’t see VPU being any kind of threat at this level and think he is a crazy price ……Kauto would have to have gone back at least half a stone for ED to have a chance of beating him round here and if Tidal Bay isn’t going to run then a Kauto Imperial 1-2 may be a very good forecast bet.
On last years form there wasn’t much between AFO and Albertas Run and the latter wouldn’t beat Exotic Dancer if he started off today.
I think AFO has improved a lot but he would have to improved by leaps and bounds to be a factor hear. Especially round Kempton against fast horses like these. Really can’t see it being the ideal type of race for him. I think he definitely wants a stiffer test than this against lesser oposition.
However the way Kauto Star has been running lately I suppose anything is possible butif he comes back to anythng like his best, this race will be over before it starts
Kauto loves it at Kempton so I can’t see him not winning this comfortably if reaching anywhere near true form, I’m glad Paul Nicholls is giving him an easier schedule this year, as last year his busy schedule was his undoing in my opinion regarding the Gold Cup.
I can’t remember the exact figures, but I think I worked it out that Kauto had a race every 19 days or so approaching the Gold Cup, I would have liked him to have had a good rest before that race, and an easier schedule altogether from Jan up until March especially, which is the plan this year..
Although it remains to be seen whether or not he is the same horse that he was at the end of 2007.
Chris B, good points re: Kauto Star – didn’t realise he ran so many times last season.
It’s fair to say that most of us feel KS will p**s up if he is 80% of the horse he was in last year’s King George – which i think he is.
Personally, I would just like 7/4
However, as Tidal Bay seems to have lost a leg I prob will stick with KS either way….and whack him in a double with Sizing Europe….you have been warned!
BTW, that’s SIZING EUROPE…best bet of the festive period.
Zip
Not sure how people can say Kauto was not right or fit for Haydock, as much as I like Paul Nicholls he always has some excuse for his when they lose, especially when they are well fancied. If its not their breathing its the pace, the ground, the track, his toast fell butter side down that morning. Yes there aren’t machines and can’t win them all, so for me that is reason enough. But to suddenly say Kauto was not as fit as he usually is to me is just another of his excuses. And the argument about him not being fresh for last year’s Gold Cup when compared to the year before he’d missed the Tingle Creek and to say he was over worked last year when he only ran 6 times and he had said on several occasions the past few years that Kauto takes his races well and doesn’t take much getting fit is proof that he often contradicts himself and usually after a loss.
Going back to Curlin, yes the surface was an unknown to him, but the same was true of Ravens and Henry and they had a trip to contend with. Also over 10f he had been unbeatable for suh a long time that there had to be something not 100% that the bookies knew about which is why they let him trade so big for so long. and I maintain against this field on a course where he has proved nigh on unbeatable, Kauto Star still trading at 6/4 is too good to be true and as they say, if it looks too good to be true, then it usually is.paul has said he feels its a year to soon 4 nobby, n somethink bout the track not suiting????? but ya never know lol x
Excuse my ignorance but I am fairly new on here and don’t know everybody, but I am right in thinking you are related to Mr Hales or have inside knowledge of his horse, I do remember somebody commenting on Nep. Coll. earlier in the year but am not 100% sure its you. Anyway, I am a big fan of the horse even though I was on Straw Bear in the Supreme and always felt 2m4f plus was what he needed but also feel he would be suited to a King George even now. But I guess PN knows best so thats something we will have to wait for next year, but as you said, you never know!
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