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In light of Auguste Rodin’s less-than-scintillating Irish Derby victory today, is there a good bet in this somewhere?
Pyledriver won a very weak Hardwicke in my view, NR there Hukum looks ground dependant and if the race doesn’t come too soon three weeks after the Eclipse (and it’s been done many times) I think Emily Upjohn would have a banging chance.
She’s only 4/1 with the books, but you can have ten packets of hob bobs to one with the ante-post small change merchants at Betfair Exchange who obviously think she won’t run.
A gallant second to Paddington in the Eclipse before storming home in this (and then off to the Yorkshire Oaks where she won’t come off the bit), that’s my prediction!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I am yet to be convinced that Emily is going to be suited coming back to 10F especially if it ends up being a tactically run race and a burn up off the home turn. Luxembourg looks like the only one who potentially could make the running but highly likely Ryan will be onboard Paddington…..who would likely be suited by a tactical race as I think his best trip will still end up being a mile (although I do conceed that there is stamina a plenty on his dam side – I think he takes more after his sire).
Can’t believe how short Anmaat is as his form leaves him way short of this (Adayar put him in his place with little effort and the Prix d’Ispahan win against the highly exposed Light Infantry was only by a short neck win) and his best form is also on a much softer surface.
Bay Bridge underperformed at Ascot and he would like a bit of juice in the ground and whilst it is currently good (good to firm in places) the website say watering may take place from Monday although there is a forecast that says 10mm could arrive Tuesday, the rest of the week is warm (mid to high 20s).
Taking a chance that either the rain arrives or watering takes place to ensure ground on the good side (maybe even approaching the softer side of good) or at least not as quick as at Ascot, 12-1 Bay Bridge is too big – The Foxes (Derby non stayer) is also interesting at 14-1.
I don’t think 10f Eclipse or 12f in this would bother Emily Upjohn looking at how she won at Epsom and straight away Gosden said Eclipse post race. Paddington is very good but if they go Eclipse it’s his 4th race in 9 weeks so wouldn’t blame them for swerving it. And Auguste Rodin isn’t certain to come here, Luxembourg may do after looking slightly outpaced at Ascot. We will see how AOB juggles his pack.
It was a fast time at Epsom over 12F and we are talking about her beating Westover and Point Lonsdale…..neither of whom you would call tactically quick nor would you give them much of a chance dropping back to 10F (Point Lonsdale in fact has 5 of his 7 entries in races ranging from 12F-16F and even Westover has an Irish Leger entry).
If there was a confirmed front runner that you knew was going to go a decent gallop and not a stop start sprint one then I would feel more confident that the trip wouldn’t be an issue…but being at the back of a tactically run race against specialist 10F horse that are quickening is not going to play to her strengths.
I would also agree that Paddington running again so soon would be a big ask – although the winning margin at Ascot was good, Ryan did have to get stuck into him quite a bit in that last 2F and personally giving him a bit longer to recover and heading for the Sussex in a months time seems the better options.
Well there are only 6 runners so hopefully she can get in the 3 for us ew backers :o)
Sidetracking a bit here as this isn’t the Eclipse thread. I blame LD73 ;o) lol
Mike – you are quite right so apologies for that – to get rightly back on track, I do think Emily has a better chance in the King George
I did kinda think that myself – the Eclipse thread is over there!
Cracking read, though.
Emily Upjohn double figure odds still for this to small money on the exchange.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“A gallant second to Paddington in the Eclipse before storming home in this (and then off to the Yorkshire Oaks where she won’t come off the bit), that’s my prediction!”
So far, so good – now let’s hope Emily Upjohn goes to Ascot.
Reference Point was runner up to Mtoto in the Eclipse then won the King George in 1987.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"@Mike007…
as John McCririck would say…your an each way thief..Good luck, I think if you have the good price well done..
Im going to have 10 bobs e/w on Simca Millie @33/s..
Might be enough for a sorbet.Great race if they all turn up
Hukum 6’s skipping Royal Ascot could pay dividends here. I’m not having the going as an excuseGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I took bits and pieces of double-digit odds Emily Upjohn for this prior to the Eclipse, but not for life-changing amounts.
It looks yet another intriguing 2023 Flat race Group 1 to me for the simple reason there’s again no outstanding contender in it.
Anything with a genuine OR of 130 plus would crucify the lot of them.
But the Flat season is always best when the racing media are whinging there’s no clear champion (so they have to actually try to use their brains to analyse it all).
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think that 7/1 is going to look good on the day for Hukum. He absolutely
trounced the field over c/d in the Coronation Cup on soft ground.
Soft or good makes no difference to him.If the ground were to be good I don’t think Willie Haggis would run him,
but if it came up really soft,
and the f/c is for rain every day from Saturday and thundery showwers
on the day before the race, then I think he could very well run Hamish.
who loves it with plenty of dig. He is a very decent horse in his own
right and was the comfortable winner of the Cumberland Lodge Stakes
over c/d. He’s not the best horse in the race, but if it were to come
up soft, or worse, he’s no 100/1 shot. I’ll take the chance that the
racing Gods turn on the taps.Hukum 8.4 and 8.2 Betfair exchange
Hamish 100/1 e/w Skybet
If they all stand their ground this is one of the best fields for years.
The more I know the less I understand.
No Going Stick reading as yet but Ascot currently described as Good to Soft (Soft in places).
1mm rain forecast next 24 hours, sunny intervals Tuesday, but then 60%-90% chance of rain every day including Saturday.
Hukum may well get his ground.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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